Well that and abit more. Its technically correct, but its not as simple as that.
There are many S&R areas that we need to watch out for.
Different TFs have different S&R extremes.
There will be a spot where all TFs S&R comes together. This will be the extreme HH or LL of a price cycle.
Then ofcause it goes from there in jagged ways all the way to the other extreme. So in this jagged price movements smaller TF S&R comes to play.
So that is why for starters its best to just concentrate on what price has done on the immediate previous price movement as our guide. As we go we should be able to add more levels to this.
Adding so much onto our plate when we are starting is not going to do us any good.
GU and AU both showed the same bias.
I donât underdstand what Iâm doing wrong, and then I get frustrated, and demotivated, and pulling the trigger gets hard.
Help please
hi kummi
i worked for international ngo (non government organization) in Sudan. been here for a year now. i miss my family badly so i really hope i can go home with this :53:
anyway⌠i hope my explanation does not make you confuse or even more demotivated.
what you did wrong there is that EURUSD that day was a bear day. it was a reversal day. and in bear day we should only sell. i know⌠i had the same question also [I]âwe can make money buy and sell, then why limit ourselves?â [/I]hehhehe anyway you should find the trigger on the LH. the second arrow is correct. not a perfect signal but that would do.
as for the correlation i think it is better to match GU with EU rather than AU.
Now lets look at the entire chart in one sweeping go from left to right.
After the sharp fall on the extreme left, we see price range for a bit until see a nice sharp pullback candle that ended up as some sort of a hammer or a shooting star ( please look up on its name ). That would have been our first marker that price has bounced off a support level.
Now from that level, look at how many H1 candles it took for it to peak at another inverted hammer or shooting moon or something right under the USDJPY tab. It was a candle with a nice wick at the top and a small squarish body.
That was pretty much where a reversal of sorts started taking place. Prices ranged there for a bit and then it spiked up and of cause started falling after a solid engulfing pattern.
So, lets be honest. All this is very nice and well after the market has moved. Try to do a write up when it hasnt done what it was going to and that is a different kettle of fish altogether.
But then there are certain things that we can take a look at and take advantage of. These things are part of the patterns traders watch out for. Things that keep repeating itself.
So lets zoom in and look at the chart in some detail now.
Look at how many bull candles were there in a row before prices started to range again after the first hammer marking a support area and a signal to buy on the extreme left of your chart.
Its safe to say without having to count that prices were going in one direction for a few days. We had three very good opportunities to buy and make a very decent amount of pip just by looking at the hammer candles on the bottom of a HL wave.
The idea is prices move from one support or resistance level to another before either bouncing or breaking. Which way we dont know.
But rest assured it will reach these areas before it decides to change. This can be done in one single H1 candle ( very unlikely), one single Day candle ( rare ), or as a HH HL HH HL HH HL pattern over a period of a couple of days. ( most of the time. )
So the edge is for us to look out for this patterns and only go in the direction of bias. This is so that even if we make mistakes or the market does something funny, we dont loose money. Its a guarantee. Look at your chart. The small hammer on the first Higher Low after the bottom pullback that was identified as a support area. Had we bought there, it would have given us what, 20 pips?, before that tanked and shot lower? But it still went a lot higher because we had our bias right if we had bought.
Even a newbie who is not so sure of his support and resistance areas or picking entries on H1 can profit from this enormously cause of the safety net bias allows.
So coming back to your chart, comparing D TF Bias of EU with GU and then adding in AU would have either told us one of two things. Becareful as we are not sure where price is going so stay out, or if we had been doing this for sometime, we would have realised the two pull back candles for a sell on H1 TF right at the top was a strong indication that it is a bounce. That would have been our marker for a resistance area.
If we had played safe, we would not have bought at the final HL hammer candle that forced prices higher then our SL or resistance area. This is because we are already looking for a possible sell.
If this was not the case, then we would have stayed out all together because we are not sure of bias.
That buy would have given us some decent pips, no doubt. But keep trading in this manner and the chances are, such entries will turn out sour more times than it would be profitable ( that answers the question why Villain said we cannot profit from both buy and sell since it moves up and down).
Instead, we would have looked for a sell entry, which was given to us exactly after the candle H1 you had bought ( notice the bearish engulfing candle ?? ) or we could have sold again exactly at the candle that you had cut off ( notice the slight upward price movement by the small bull candles but it becoming stagnant on the third doji before it opening downwards??
I think you were guessing that price was going to go up after seeing three bull candles in a row. ( forgive me if I am wrong.)
If you had decided so, ask yourself where is your signal to buy there?? Did you see any of the classic pull back candles etc etc??
But dont worry. We all still make mistakes. I still do, especially when prices bounce without a clear indication. It happens.
Sometimes in the excitement in making a few pips, I forget some basic rules myself. Just last week I sold when I should have bought as per D TF Bias on GU. Was lucky to get out of that blunder profitably.
It all takes practice, practice and then more practice for it to become second nature. So if you having some issues with it now, dont worry. You will see the picture sooner or later.
Had we sold where you cut off your buy, our SL would have been something like 5 or 10 pips including spread. So there you go.
Finally I am going to include a chart shot of my EU. This chart shot has to come with a warning label though.
Do not attempt this if you are a newbie.
Do not attempt this if you are not a 100% sure of D TF BIAS.
I should have TP on the first position that was entered the second time on the same level that I sold earlier in the morning.
It was at 60 pips when I decided that the sell bias was still young and fresh, so I think I can hold this position for more. Again greed is not good.
So then the Americans come in and push the price back up past the earlier resistance line.
On the end of the first bear candle I decided to sell again, doubling my risk. But I only sold because I confidently knew that it was going to come back down.
As of market end, I am holding 140. I rarely hold over the weekend. It causes too much excitement to screw up my weekend some what. :p.
I wont suggest trading this way because it can burn our account disastrously. But its just an example of what the ability to see and read BIAS can do for you.
( Master Tang, I know I said you should be sent off with a red card had this been a soccer field. But greed has been my weakness occasionally.
You can take risks up to 20 or 30 % per trade if you get your BIAS reading down pat because your retracements are usually less then 20 pips.
So hope that helps you from getting frustrated or demotivated.
Relax, breath in and breath out. Go out have a coffee or a cigarette. Come back and look at the charts again with a fresh eye.
You will come to a point where you will be able to read BIAS fairly well. It can never be a 100%. The days where its not clear, keep out. Simple as that.
But on the days you can, you will KNOW where prices will go on D TF before you even begin looking for an entry on H1 TF.
Good luck. Have faith and patience. There are methods in the forex markets apparent madness.
It was a valid sell, but then prices decided to do a turn.
Have to remember it was a Friday. It sometimes tends to do funny things on Fridays and Mondays.
Had you taken the trade at the beginning of the candle, your SL would have been 30 pips. You would have lost 30 pips.
The signals will never be 100% profit all the time.
We could have minimized the chances of loosing had we used a trendline ( the red line you see on my EU H1 is a trendline. Prices been bouncing off it.) and if we had also looked at candle formations on H4, we could have seen that price was doing a sharp pull back after it touched the trendline.
But then these are already looking at things in a very deep level. It does not suit newbies. There is no point going to the second or third level when we have yet to master the first.
Will all being said, if you had taken the next signal as per system, you would have covered back your losses and still be in profit.
Thanks so much for the help Nikitafx and villain! Iâm so grateful for your help! I will continue reading this trade until I gte it down pat, and then some!
Is it okay if I continue to post trades, both good and bad. With help, it could serve to help both myself, and others reading this thread�
Monday, new trading week. Although the first week of college, I will have time for trading.
Thanks!
Anyone see any trade setups for the bias groupings? I canât see any clear trades, so Iâma stay out, unless someone points something out. I might be missing something, but Iâve heard the rule, if there isnât an obvious trade, donât force it.
canât sleep⌠maybe because of my ongoing slow moving trade⌠but also maybe because iâm anxious for my home coming in few days, or the darn mosquitos
anyway⌠just a note. i was amazed of how nikitafx predicted the reversal on one of my chart. so maybe this was what she did
i changed my note to the following but too lazy to reup the chart
just a note about where to enter the market. if we have drawn the trendline we can actually predict where the retraced price [B][I]might [/I][/B]reverse.
yeah there was a resistance area where price would be rejected but there was also possibility that price would retrace higher
with this trendline we can actually put a pending order, go to sleep, and let the house elf collected the pips (maybe)
Yeah, but as we speak, the last candle is bullish, but itâs closing in on the corner of the triangle shape, if you know what I mean. So I guess we could trade the movement, like you said, by a pending order. Anyone know how to do this using FXCMâs platform, though? I canât figure it out, and I end up doing a wrong trade action haha.
(maybe)