Hi izzdin thanks for the heads up on EA, managed to get 100 pips after long time.
1 HR TF
Thanks tonyro just trying very hard to keep them. Good week for me so far. Hope everyone also making lots of pips.
Saw a H&S pattern, the breakout bar opened well below the neckline (window/gap down).
Wondering if I should sell the pull back to neckline if it happens.
Any suggestions? What has your experience been with such patterns?
[QUOTE=“bobmaninc;646323”]I am not going to comment on NJ as I didnt look at the chart. EU I would hold off on anything as of right now to close to call. Nikita can smack me for this but I feel as though it is worth a mention. Fibs take a long hard look at them. It mean nothing by itself but you might want to take a peek at what the chart is saying. Here is a basic daily chart of EU with a basic fib extension on it (based off the last swing) As you can see price is sitting on the 161.8 Fib level. Hmmm I wonder why. Well lets take a look. Same chart with another fib and zoomed out a little. Here I drew a fib backwards (I have not added fibs extensions in the other direction yet but its close enough) and the 125 fib (the actual fib is 128) lands exactly with the 161.8. Now look at all those red circles showing how many times price reacted to this same level in the past and thats just a quick zooming out of the chart. I didnt even take a look in history. You could be right but if it were me I would wait to see if price breaks or rejects before proceeding with a trade.[/QUOTE]
LOL
Welcome back Bobmaninc.
Always glad to see an old friend.
Looking to go long on USD / CAD and short on GBP/AUD also looking to short CAD/CHF. I will wait until London open to get signal on smaller TF. If the price did not reach my entry price there will be no trade.
Maximum 2 trades a day.
What everybody thinks about this pair.
[QUOTE=“sharebazar;647692”]Looking to go long on USD / CAD and short on GBP/AUD also looking to short CAD/CHF. I will wait until London open to get signal on smaller TF. If the price did not reach my entry price there will be no trade. Maximum 2 trades a day. What everybody thinks about this pair.[/QUOTE]
I dont trade these pairs.
The closest I am is Euro Aussie. Holding a long on it since last week.
I dont look at more than 4 or 5 cause i tend to get excited and rush trades. Always ends up badly.
It is sways better to be with the major pair, but did not see any good setup on major pairs yet. I used to get excited whenever I see a setup on any pair and eventually hit my SL. But now I am very much discipline to open a position. Still makes mistake but not like before. Exotic pairs sometime can produce good amount of pips, but only problem I have with the exotic pair is it needs big SL and can be turn to a bad trade, that is why I try to wait until I get my preferred price to open the position with SL 30- 50 pips.
Now your showing how much you have mature in the trading world,good for you sharebazar.
In my experience, the best HS patterns form at the peak of extended moves, at the end of impulsive price action. And, vice versa for inverse HS.
Yes, you can get short off a pullback to the neck line.
I drop a FIB, and use a logical price point for entry.
Drop down to a lower time frame and confirm price action w tick volume.
Even better, find a pattern on a fast time frame, drop a stochastic and you have a trading plan.
That’s how I’d approach it.
Ok. So here is the update so far.
It took 2 days for the price to pull back to the neckline. Both these days there was a gap up opening and as of now the price crossed above the neckline.
Since for H&S pattern the SL needs to be at the middle, it really did not fit with my risk management hence had decided to let this one go (though I am demo trading). But when the price crossed over the neckline it came into the zone where I could short it and it still was within my risk %. Not sure if I did right or wrong – any thoughts?
Do breakup above the neckline invalidates the H&S pattern?
Thanks ForexUnlimited, I shorted at a FIB level.
Thanks,
Kam
I think EUR/AUD pair may be push little bit more down, if it is drop between1.4380-1.4350 I will go long if I get good signal on smaller TF.
[QUOTE=“sharebazar;647798”]I think EUR/AUD pair may be push little bit more down, if it is drop between1.4380-1.4350 I will go long if I get good signal on smaller TF.[/QUOTE]
The problem I face trading.
To take or hold.
I took EuroKiwi too soon. Regretted it.
Held on to EuroAussie, and it pains to see pips being pulled back!
Hi Nikita and everyone in this forum,
trying to hone my skills identifying the bias.
In this Daily chart, what do you think is the bias.
As per me it’s a Buy, the reasons being
- the 3rd candle from right shows that buyers have gotten stronger
- 2nd candle from right shows indecision
- and the 1st candle from right shows that buyers are stronger than sellers
hence today is a buy.
Would really appreciate some feedback, just so i know if i have the concept right.
Thanks,
Kam
[QUOTE=“kamx;647832”]Hi Nikita and everyone in this forum, trying to hone my skills identifying the bias. In this Daily chart, what do you think is the bias. As per me it’s a Buy, the reasons being - the 3rd candle from right shows that buyers have gotten stronger - 2nd candle from right shows indecision - and the 1st candle from right shows that buyers are stronger than sellers hence today is a buy. Would really appreciate some feedback, just so i know if i have the concept right. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Thanks, Kam[/QUOTE]
Well you have one part of the equation right.
About the candlestick part.
The second most important part is price levels.
Price levels should tell us which candle to watch for, and which to probably ignore.
Ok The line that runs horizontally is a price level.
These are the areas where we look for candle patterns.
Its much more valid on higher TFs.
Matter of fact, when you would like to enter based on daily bias, look for the nearest price level ( wicks formed at peaks of previous daily candles marking the immediate closest wave ) and wait for price to come back there before taking a trade in the direction of bias.
The left arrow shows where a previous wave had formed before going up. So technically I would have bought when the fifth pin bar candle had just started forming and retraced to my entry price line. Why buy on the fifth candle? Because the day before ( assuming this is a day chart ) was already a strong buy candle. Price retraces to yesterdays opening and shoots back up.
Alternately, those who missed the first chance to buy the fifth candle at Support and Resistance got a second chance the following day where price came back down to that level. I dont know what my entry signal and exit area on a smaller TF of the said chart would have looked like, but that would have been a trade I would have taken.
Ofcause that trade would have hit our SL cause of price gaps ( weekend perhaps? )
So that was a valid trade, but a loosing one nevertheless.
Than it gives us another entry.
Price forms a pin bar again on the second candle.
Someone is pushing it back up again.
We now redraw our S&R price level at the nearest very strong support area.
Note that if we drew a line at the bottom of the second candle wick, we will find a previous corresponding support in the chart. We do not draw our entry line on that area because we are looking for a buy.
Why?
Because a buy signal is a low, high, lower high and than moves to form a new higher high. Correct?
So obviously we would be buying at the next support area and not the previous one.
We know we are on to the next move when an entry signal forms on the lower TF at the spot that is suppose to be the lower high.
Remember, the only pattern that exists in any markets is the following.
-
Price tests a key level,
-
breaks that level,
-
overshoots it because of its momentum from breaking the level ( sellers or buyers dominate, and when we add to the fact that the loosing camp starts cutting losses, price shoots one way before finding balance )
-
than falls back to that level ( it falls back because the short term traders and amateurs who had joined in the breaking of the level take profit. They cut their trade off. Often amateurs and newbies always buy towards the peak of a wave. )
-
before bouncing back ( It bounces back because the retraced price and risk is palatable for the bigger players who had missed out on the chance to be in that trade earlier. Big players buy low sell high. They never trade breakouts. They trade retracement. That is their low or high, depending on which way they wanna go. They never look for trades. They wait for price to come to the level they want it to. )
All the other patterns, from head and shoulder patterns, crocodile bands, EMA/SMA cross overs, lower low lower high etc etc et al are just another way of looking for the above.
When you understand the way price moves and start seeing it repeat the same directly from your chart candlestick chart, you will throw out your indicators.
The first candle than opens above this Support and Resistance price level on the following day. It retraces back down, exactly to the key price area we had drawn based on closest previous wave, that it was rejected from there.
Basically this is all there is to price action.
Now. Let me end this post by emphasizing on a fact.
It can all be very clinically taken apart, examined and summarized beautifully on hindsight.
After the market has moved.
I often find so many trades that fit like a glove and was very obvious post price move.
Not during or before.
To make that analysis as the market is yet to make its move is a different ball game all together.
There are very few traders who can do it on a daily basis.
This is the reason why I keep saying wait, wait for the trade that you can see clearly.
If in doubt, dont enter.
Because we cannot see most of the trades thats forming right under our noses, as its happening.
Its not a skill set that comes from a year or two of trading.m
I had planned to put together an Ebook a year or two ago.
I never finished it because I could not find a way to explain what we need to see in a few short pages.
And I find the same issue when I teach absolute newbies.
I have to go into explaining the basic concepts like what is support and resistance, and most importantly what do they mean when they say support broken becomes resistance, resistance broken, becomes support. Even that is not as important as ultimately being able to see how we can take advantage of. We need to be able to visualise.
A trader has to be able to visualise these very basic concepts.
Because thats what helps us make reasonably informed judgements on trade calls. We must be able to see what the market is going to do next. Where will it come down to before going up?
Is this a bounce, or is this a retracement?
And the only way they can do that is by seeking it out for themselves by putting in the hours on looking at the charts.
We can attend as many courses as we like, read as many books as we want, participate in as many forums as we have time for, but without the chart time to understand what the other person is talking about, it wont be of much help.
This is to further highlight how we look for entry levels on higher TF.
Euro Aussie, WTF.
My first entry was when I saw a bull candle three weeks ago.
So the following Monday, As soon as the second candle opened, I drew a line at the immediate previous support below the current price level, which is clearly marked by the candle ten weeks ago.
Thats how I visualise and preplan my trades.
Think what it will most probably do, than wait for price to come to us.
Hence that was my game plan for Euro Aussie for last week.
As you can see I bought right about there but the price crashed further down south to the opening price three weeks ago. Had it gone south a little more, I would have taken a loss.
The trade is still active and you can see the buy line.
What is the game plan for this week?
Well, same thing. Identify closes support below last weeks closing price, draw a line, and wait for it to retrace to our price level. Once it does and we see any sort of a semblance of buyers in the smaller TF, we jump in and buy cause last week was a buy.
You can do the same way on DTF also.
Pick three or four pairs at most, and follow this on a weekly basis.
Weekly Monday do your visualising and analysis.
Draw ur lines.
Than sit back and watch for it to play out.
Do this, and instead of seeing random irrational up and down movements, You will see that Monthly, Weekly and Daily move in wave inside a wave inside a wave manner.
Do not open the chart and look for trade signals first.
Look for the wave patterns and visualize the next wave move.
Mark it and than watch if there is an entry signal.
Missed the GBP/AUD entry by 3 pips, can’t believe it.
You just wrote your E book in the last to posts and put most of this tread into it
Thank you very much and congratulations!!
[QUOTE=“sharebazar;647978”]Missed the GBP/AUD entry by 3 pips, can’t believe it.[/QUOTE]
Well it really feels awful when that happens.
And it happens often to me.
If I rush in and take the next trade the moment price shows some semblance of a bounce without waiting, it will often bite me and cost me bigger loss because of bigger SL!
Wanna know the technique I use to deal and overcome this?
Well very simple.
its called the ITYS system.
i told you so! System.
i learned to be happy because i was right even though missed out on the pips!
That mental conditioning helps me from rushing in the next trade.
Hahahaha sorry Sharebazar.
The two things we can never predict totally is,
A. Where will it retrace to. We can only predict levels, the price range. Never the price.
B. Is there enough momentum for this level to hold / break. I.e. Bull or Bear stronger?
I Like all your system. Specially ITYS system because it makes me happy and other systems makes me pips.
Today I have missed few trades only because I don’t want to rush it and I want to keep my risk under control by only open 2 position in 1 or 2 pairs maximum in one day. And it really happened because of your advice, support and guidance.
But managed to get 43 pips from EUR/CAD.
Glad to help.
Typically, if price rallies back up after making a neckline break on a standard HS, I’d need to see the supporting volume as to whether or not we made a false break, and continuation buying may occur.
Glad you got short @ a FIB level.
Jason Stapleton has an awesome strategy called the 2-618 range trade.
Check that out on the web because it sounds like this is exactly what you just did.
Basically, its identifying a range first.
Then, waiting for a breakout of that range, and getting into the market in the direction of the breakout, off a 618 FIB retracement of the breakout leg.