pheew…
finally i finished the all 46 pages. have done quiet several nice setups with this method. thanks for sharing nikita. today i’m buying the EU.
Was never my intention to have it grow to so many pages. Thought Ill keep it simple, just like the trading method.
Hope it helps u. I am done buying today.
AU H1
This was yesterday 4 ams trade for me.
GU H4 TF
Nice candles as we speak. Will try to find an entry in H1 for a sell if possible. Might not take it as D TF bias was buy although it has the yellow line as resistance.
Will sell if the SL is right.
Happy trading.
Hey guys! I’m back again. Nikita, I have asked you this before, but I couldn’t find the answer directly; for the D TF you want one previous day confirmation/correlation (so like, two bull candles in a row), while on the H TF you want to catch the bottom or top of a wave (depending on short or long) to minimize SL and maximize profits?
Thanks!
Good morning Ms. Nikita! Just wanted to drop-in and say that I really enjoy following your thread here. This style is something I’m interested in because I want to learn a better stop strategy. The biggest things I want to focus on are: 1) consistency, and 2) stop controls.
I’m trying to keep this uber-simple, at least until it becomes 2nd-nature. So for now, I’m only looking at the non-JPY pairs you had mentioned above: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF.
I think your concept of using Daily Bias to improve overall accuracy is brilliant. I very much want to understand this better and use it to limit myself to only taking ripe cherrypick trades.
One question I have regarding bias… do you think I should be looking at more pairs with USD as the base currency (ie, USDxxx) since I currently only look at 1 (USDCHF) to offset the other 3 for correlation purposes? Which handful of pairs do you look at to see if correlation is “in check” across the board?
Also, please correct me if I’m wrong here – but in the event that you can foresee a reversal in the Daily Bias coming (for example, some pairs already reversed, others showing reversal patterns but not confirmed) – did you say that you would still consider trading those reversed pairs on H1, but with less risk?
THANKS 
That is the rough idea Kummi. But usually by the time it hits two bull candles we should be up by a 100 or so pips.
Mark the D TF support and resistance and build it to the lower TF if you are still not very apt at reading candlesticks on multiple TF.
If done right, it will show you which candles to ignore and which ones to pay attention to 80% of the time.
All to get a higher chance of profitable trades.
I am glad that this thread has helped you with your trading somewhat dusktrader.
In regards to your question, correlation is something that is fluid in forex. Its not fixed. So a pair that correlates strongly for this week or month might not do the same on the following week.
There are some websites that give you numbers on the strength of correlation but as usual, these figures are arrived at by analysing data. Which means it only tells you what has happened so far and not what will happen next. So take it with a pinch of salt.
I am currently not trading Yen pairs also. The reason for it is obvious. If you are selling Yen pairs, I would strongly suggest a SL as I have had a bad experience of coming back after an hour to see my GJ trade nearly 300 over pips against me because of Intervention.
I am currently paying attention to GU EU AU and NU. I have my UCHF charts open but I havent traded it in more than two weeks because I dont see a confident set up. It takes a lot of faith to keep buying UCHF after the intervention because my take on fundamentals is the world economy nor the US or Euro zone countries have not had any break through from the current situation they are in. So whatever artificial intervention is done, it should come back to its existing levels because that is the natural level the current state of things are.
Again, all this analysis in my head does not mean anything when the chart shows otherwise. So UCHF is kept in storage also.
I wont recommend adding too many pairs when you are trying out something new. It delays the learning process. I would recommend maybe 2 or 3 pairs and keep a close eye on how it moves. These three correlated pairs would be more than enough to confirm bias signals.
Finally, your last question about foreseeing things. I always advice that if you are not sure, dont enter. That is one of the beauties of Forex. But its also one of the hardest thing to control. The impulse to enter a trade and the feeling of missing a trade when we see the trade that we skipped is now in so much profit.
So the way I deal with it is I play around with my risk factor. I sometimes take trades that pays me 10 cents a pip. It does not do anything for my bottom line, but cutting with 40 to 60 pips or more in profit is satisfaction of a winning trade. It also helps changing our mind set to look at the pips and not the profits.
I hope that helps.
I’m super psyched about your style, it is really inspirational. I have only been trading this for a very short time, but I can see a lot of potential already. For example, my hit rate is only about 33% according to MyFXBook, but I’m still way ahead. I feel certain that by mastering bias and wave-pattern identification, that I can tighten this up quite a bit.
Rather than take over your thread, I’m going to start my own spinoff thread so I can brainstorm out loud (without derailing others who are learning from your style).
Thank you so much for all this wisdom, I realize you didn’t have to share this with us but you just never know when someone will “pay it forward” back to you. Do you believe in serendipity? I do pretty wholeheartedly.
Thanks for the tip on NZDUSD, I’ve added it to my group and took a trade today as well. I check for a new Daily bias reading at 5am Eastern. Today all pairs looked in sync (correlated) so I’m going with the stronger risk on today’s trades. Yesterday was a little more flimsy with regard to correlation, but I still took trades and still came out ahead.
I’ll still follow your thread and pop back here to ask questions You rock!!
Hello All,
How do you think about these pairs for next Monday, can we consider selling because of the bearish candles?
EU D1
GU D1
AU D1
On EU I’m seeing a strong down candle Friday, a good pinbar 2 days ago and a triple tweezer top.
On GU, I see a strong down candle Friday, tweezer tops from 2 and 4 days ago, and it also appears to be the top of a wave.
AU had a down candle Friday as well.
All these seem to support a downward bias so I’m going to look for shorts on H1 timeframe Monday. Also need to check correlation between the pairs to know how reliable these signals are.
Thanks for the explanation dusktrader,
Since i’m a very newbie trader, the GU pattern confused me because it was bullish-bearish-bullish-bearish which have the same length (approx.) for candles body.
On EU i have a gap trap pending order (buy stop and sell stop) at about 10 pips from the current price. Hoping the opening gap will be more than 10 pips so i can close one of the order with victory at the early monday
My gap trap work successfully…
Sorry, can you explain this more, I don’t understand?!
What is buy stop and sell stop? Like a trigger trade in both directions? How would an opening gap help you get pips?
Thanks!
I’ll try to explain it, but first… Nikita may i borrow a room here for a little explanation? Hehe…
Usually i make this 2 pending orders on early saturday morning 3.58 AM (GMT+7), it’s 2 minutes before the market closed. I set buy stop 13 pips above the current price (3 is my spread), and a sell stop 10 pips below the current price. I use the EU since EU have the most little spread than the others, besides, it’s usually has a quite wide range of gap. On monday morning 3.58 AM (GMT+7, 2 minutes before the market open), i already stand by in front of the chart. When the market starts to move, i close my both orders immediately. Usually it’s hit one of my pending orders. Hope it helps…
Oh I got it! Just making quick profit from the first initial movement, and closing right away? Thanks. What is the average pip return for this?
Yes, setting an order on friday, and closing at monday. The average depends on how wide the gap is. Remember the time when EU got almost 200 pips for a gap? I got 170 pips blessing from there. Sometimes when the gap only narrow (10-15 pips), i got my order being loss, but i keep that order open until it becomes a profit one (since the price mostly will try to reach daily pivot first).
Not a bad idea this one.
Will try it on demo and let you guys know how Im doing.
I know ahead of time which way it’s going to gap, would that be useful information? so you are trying to profit from the gap? The few times I have traded the gap I wait for the gap to happen and then trade price back into the gap because the gap usually fills.
Hah, common sense, far too little of it about!
I should edit my previous post. I don’t know the gap on friday evening when trading stops but I know what it will be before metatrader users do because I use Oanda and they show the price action during the so called gap. So really there isn’t a gap.
I have to edit my pending order several times just to make sure it’s not getting hit before the market closed. I’ve got my pending order hit once (my buy stop, because i forgot to add the spread), and it’s a disaster since the gap opened against my order (the gap opened far below the saturday’s closing price).