I have to back nikitas comment 10 fold. There is another thread on here where I state if you watch a 1hr candle from open to close. Not every time but most of the time if the first half (30mins)of that candle is up then unless there is some big momentum backing it price will reverse in the second half of that candle. Somehow I think the same goes for the weekly candle. Well guess what we are sitting right on the second half of the weekly candle. Now I am not saying it wont go down a little more but we have seen some major clif dives across the boards this week (at least the pairs I trade). I feel the major move south is done and correction to find a happy place is comming. I dont think price is going to reverse to far as my weekly calculations of the COT report for weekly bias seems to be spot on a very high majority of the time and it predicted the weekly candle will be down. With that said price can go a long ways up on most pairs before ever comming close to the weeks open. My point is proceed with caution use price action at its finest for now till either the end of the week. Or till momentum states otherwise. But getting in the market because you can right now is a bad idea. Some how if you do that I think the market will take you out because it can. Ding Ding and we just entered round 2 of this 2 round bout who will walk away victorious its anybodies fight. The only ones leaving unbloody are those on the side lines (witch some how I think is me as asian session has not given me much for entries this week).
My tech analysis must have been right cause I just made 56 pips off of this trade before it started to turn. I got in late, but it did me right.
I went back to the previous page to look at your charts. Yeah you had good momentum. Your entry for me left alot on the line but hey it worked it worked. I just posted a chart on another thread something about fibs. I didnt realize intill I read my post that my 3yr old son must have been pushing buttons again. But he has never lost a trade so I let it run. Got almost 30 pips out of it (boy got daddy beat thats for sure). Momentum is great and is what one of the main points of this thread are with bias and all that. But momentum must have an end somewhere keep that in mind. Other than that the chart you posted thats alot of momentum going to be hard to stop that.
EA D TF
D TF bias is for a sell.
EA H4 TF
Current candle might signal a weakening upward move. Have to wait for candle to end.
EA H1 TF
This could be the peak for SL.
Will wait and watch how this goes.
Edit Post
EA H1
30++ pips max, Either we took or we moved SL to BE.
Either way entry is very important. That is why I hate to enter in the middle. had we entered on the second H, we would have damages.
Now I need another 40 pips to cover my losses.
Just hit my TP on AU, 50 pip gain, still 1 lot remain to hit TP on AU.
Total gains for today is 96 pip. Thanks to all
Total gain 96 pip for today from AU pair.
Very happy for you Sharebazar.
Thank you very much, All credit goes to you, your thread and explanation just open my mind how to look for the Market bias and perfect entry, but I am having some problem with my SL, not actually a problem but it is bit bigger in pips like 30-40 pip range where my TP is 40-50 range, R:R is 1:1 or bit more.
You mentioned previously that to keep the SL as small as possible according to the Market,I will try to reduce my SL to less than 25 pip. Any advice
You will not always get trades with tiny stoplosses. But with screen time you will start to find ways to lower you risk. If your R:R is 1:1 or better then you are heading in the right direction
Price action works. But its not always so clear, that it comes with the candle pullbacks and all.
Sometimes it works like clock work for a week where it respects the S & R levels to the dot and the pull backs are 100% accurate etc etc.
Some weeks, you have to be abit flexible/ cautious.
The problem is, when it works perfectly, your R:R is guaranteed 1 : 3 or higher. 1 : 10 is possible.
On the other days, R : R can be 1:1 at best.
So like with all other trading methods, we have the proverbial 7 good years and 7 lean years.
The trick to entering trades with smaller SL is watching previous pullback candle wicks. Its one good way to ensure we get an entry as high or as low as possible. This is especially true on H4 charts.
Always keep an eye for pullbacks. These are the best set ups that provide small SL. Either its a BPC ( breakout, pullback, continuation) trade or even a pullback on H1 candles.
Patience always pays.
Finally, remember the wise words of Buckscoder. The third profitable position, other than buying or selling, is staying out.
When not sure, we save our money for a better entry.
Thanks Nikitafx and bobmaninc, will follow the advice.
Trading against bias again I see, Tsk tsk. 
Just playing, I understand why you did it (H4 and H1 were both promising and a good support area) I just thought I would be an annoying little prick 
If you don’t mind me asking how did you manage to get negative pips today?
LOL.
I was waiting for someone to pick that up. 
I was 70 down because of breaking rules last night, late American session. I had a buy on EU ( i know, broke first rule ) I had a sell on UC ( first rule broken twice ) and to make sure I had maximum chance for damage, I broke another rule, which is never go contra on a USD at the front and a USD at the back. If it goes sour, we are 100% guaranteed to have a double looser. So there you go, three rules broken.
My EU hit TP, but trade was not cut. My UC missed TP by 1 pip. I of cause went to bed after setting the levels, or I would have moved SL to BE. Instead of being 50 pips richer, I woke up to see a disaster in my hands for 70 pips.
So the whole day was spent patching the leaking boat.
Well they say that rules are meant to be broken sometimes (I’m trying to avoid this cliche myself).
At least you only got a leak in your boat, I’m currently trying to pull mine up from the bottom of the ocean :31:
I agree, staying out can be a very profitable position.
Hi Nikita,
I read all of your and also Lumi’s great thread and would like to thank you for explaining so much and sharing this knowledge here. I took a screenshot of GBPUSD H1 and would like to know:
- Did I put the HH and HL correct in the chart?
- Would this would be a valid entry?
I think you are asking this in regards to deja vu system of Lumis.
If you are than I think yes You have got it down pat, though I would look for entries on the smaller TF for clarity since its sort of whip lashing on H1. You still have to draw your fibo and see if it hits entry point.
If you are marking the HH and HL on how I trade than I wont buy here yet because if you look at that ine u drew at 1.57593, it a classic support and resistance area.
I would be watching for the price to break from below, touch that line and bounce, as a classic BPC pattern. But if we observe your last HL candle and the one before it, it shows me prices are undecided and no confirmation for a bounce.
So I would stay out of this one.
Hope that is the answer you are looking for.
EU H4
The clear support on H4 has been established for a few candles now. We wait for some signs to show that downward momentum has stalled or reversed. That is evident on the previous H4 candle.
EU H1
The entry on H1 was late. It should have been on the beginning of the earlier candle.
I had a disaster in another account. Accidentally punched in one extra 0 into the lot size. I was lucky to have cut it with 30 pips profit with 10x more profit than what I should have had.
Been a great week just because of that one trade.