Observe the price action around the daily pivot as the European session opens, you may find that a lot of things are made simpler by this one observation.
I tried to attach a 4 hour chart but server rejected a png file…
Try it one more time and the server will let you. It does that sometimes.
Very good point, interesting to see how it pans out, I would expect the longer term bias to be more likely to drive momentum.
Congrats Tyranno, nice call!
I will try and take a lesson from this schooling!
Yeah, nice trade Tyranno 
slipp3ry; That’s the spirit!
Thank-you, my Forex Friends! I closed the trade early with an approximate 20 pip profit because I had to go to bed :20: I was both happy and disappointed when I woke up and saw the price moved well past my targets. I guess I need to look into some sort of trade management EA.
One of those times where you wander well what if I would have left the trade open. Well dont sweat it. You got your profits when you decided it was in your best interest to do so. What if you left it and the market reversed? Now you wake up to a loss thinking why didnt I just close it before going to bed. I personally would have moved Stop to BE. But then its the same you could have woke up to find you should have just collected your profits. Its just one of those things where you have to do what you feel is the right move and you did. You protected your capital and your profits. We are all human so its natural to be disappointed since you could have made more. In time you will learn to trust you analysis more but that still dont mean you should have left the trade open. Good job in my opinion your analysis was sound you did what you thought was the right move at the time. Now your account is bigger because of it. Nothing wrong with that.
Just entered sell E/J @ 97.47 SL 97.72 TP 96.96.
If anyone thinks I’m an idiot then please do tell me .
EJ is at daily support
I don’t get/see that?
You mean from 01/06/12?
12th Jan 2012. its bounced off that level and its currently at resistance of 1st Jun 2012.
Look at weekly also.
Aussie came down in an elevator after the news release.
Thanks Nikita, I was going to bail when it went back into profit but frustratingly my brokers price went above my charting registered highest price and I got stopped out.
OK so trying to learn from lessons yesterday,
D1 G/U and E/U are indecision, wait for confirmation
D1 A/U shows some support/interaction with price at 05/11/10, 31/12/10, 08/02/11 and support at 11/08/11 but the price area has been trounced over a bit recently.
Given lack of correlation I’m looking to make a low risk percentage buy on A/U if I see confirmation on H1 charts.
D1 U/J, E/J and G/J all show buy, as we saw yesterday EJ is at an area of support and is at bottom, G/J and U/J both have several interactions with price at this level as both support and resistance in the recent past.
Given that U/J and /G/J seem to be ranging a bit and not in as clear wave as E/J I’m going to be looking for a low risk percentage buy on E/J if I see confirmation on H1.
Again if anyone thinks I’m an idiot then please do let me know.
Rapidly losing faith in my analysis…
Hi all,
I was not in the trade when Aussie first dropped approx 70-80 pips.
Would you say that when it pulled back to 1.20 from 1.180, selling @ 1.20 was a wise idea or was it too late considering the daily range of the pair?
I saw this and wanted to sell right at 1.20 and hold till next support at 1.0115
I did not enter the trade as I thought price has dropped too rapidly.
Sorry to step in on your exchange with Nikita, but to make one general point - I would not lose faith in your analysis per se simply because things do not play out as you expect at the moment. The market is pretty spiky at the moment, intraday trades have to run the gauntlet of many spikes, and end of day trades are still more susceptible to news announcements etc than they generally are, in my opinion.
I have not gone through all of your analysis from your earlier post, but to pick up on EUR/JPY - I think that you were planning to go short, well I went long yesterday; as Nikita said, there is a pretty good level going through the chart (it is pretty clear on the Daily at around 97.00). I went long off the Daily in January (16/01), and tried the same again yesterday. It was not the cleanest setup ever, but was pretty good, I had a few reasons to try it, risked my regular 1%, Price pipped me in (I think my Entry was 97.79), all good I thought - then slumped this morning, straight through my Stop, and I am 1% down. I never enjoy a loss, but it was a decent enough setup, if I keep taking those I will eventually be ahead, just one of those things.
So what I am saying is - don’t assume that your analysis is flawed if Price does not do what you expect. We are not always going to be right, all of the time. If a six month period shows you that you are consistently wrong, then perhaps you are missing something. If you take a few losses over a shorter period of time, you might be ‘right’, it was just one of those trades that stops you out. I am certainly see more of those than is ‘normal’ for my approach at the moment. End of June/beginning of July marks the switch from financial Q2 to Q3, there has been some profit taking recently after all the Euro slumps, the market is very sensitive to news… just keep following threads such as this one, be honest with yourself when you look back and review losing trades, and don’t panic.
Just my thoughts!
ST
that is part of the learning process…we all go through it time and time again… …i constantly go through it…and learn from my mistakes…my trading is so different to how it used to be…and it is from making mistakes…and being able to see new things with more experience…
eventually you will find a method of trading that works well for you…as long as you keep positive and understand.
you are learning what not to do…and the only important thing is not to let kill your motivation to trade.
@SimonTemplar and brinkfx
Thanks for the advice guys, this forum is awesome!
I’m in it for the long haul so have accepted that I will make mistakes (probably many many mistakes). If it was easy everyone would be doing it right?
I come from a poker background so have a (I think) good grounding in variance and understanding of the importance of MM and risk which should hopefully allow me the room to get there while I improve my analysis skills (which I am more than happy to admit to being poor at the moment).
I have a poker background also, Whippit, until the US Government decided to put an end to that. Anyway, I believe there are a lot of similarities between trading and poker, especially the areas you mentioned like bankroll (money) management, psychology, and understanding variance, EV, etc. I also believe trading is far more scalable than poker…you don’t have to develop new skills to “move up” to the next level.
In addition, there’s the skill you’ve developed to make decisions based on incomplete information. Plus the skill to fold a mediocre hand in bad position will translate into “is this a premium trade(hand) or is this trade like KJo in early position?”.
Nick