I am one of those people who do think that anything lower H1 TF is noise, but this surely is an eye opener.
Noise to some is sweet sweet music to others. Profit from noise.
Going to post another M5 trade I just booked, tomorrow morning further supporting this point. Glad I can broaden your perspective when it comes to looking @ the charts. A pattern is a pattern- it’s the context that validates whether or not a trade opportunity exists.
Plainly put (and frankly)- anyone who tells you that “faster timeframes are noise” simply has no idea what they are talking about and has a rookie-level-approach when it comes to trading.
I think this simple statement has a whole lot of meaning. Well said bro.
AUDJPY Trade Analysis & Recap
MAR 8 2016
All charts are M5.
Impulsive selling (red channel) followed by a corrective horizontal structure (black rectangle).
Origin of selling created a nice entry zone (yellow rectangle).
Double-tap on this zone (two red circles) - wasn’t actively watching markets @ that time, where a better price could have been had.
This screenshot is one of the primary reasons this trade was initiated.
Most JPY crosses already printed a bearish-breakout structure, and price sold off.
The AUDJPY however, lagged just a bit; enough to have an edge on a quick breakout.
AUDJPY chart is @ bottom right.
Here’s the trade. Stop never threatened.
Entry was on a pullback to that zone from the first chart.
Sharing this chart as it is very revealling, and speaks to what I’ve been talking about (in regards to trader’s controlling this market).
You need to be in-and-out, especially on intraday timeframes.
The breakout was roughly 44P- this trade captured 39 (almost 90% of the identified move).
Look what happened after covering.
Jake
YEN showing some resiliency above 111.
USDJPY H4 chart
Double bottom in place @ 111.
Buyers showing effort to protect lows, but not seeing commitment.
Instrument is coiling @ 113.50- potential breakout in place.
As of right now, the lower bound of the channel / trendline is holding. (May be an opp. to short there or play a topside break via intraday price action).
Bulls need to clear 113.50 for a go @ 114.50.
Bears looking to hold aforementioned for a retest of 111.
Been talking about the importance of 116, and the subsequent break we’re seeing as of early FEB.
Volatility is high, and there isn’t a clear read on direction / control right now.
Sometimes having no position is a valid position.
Jake
I have been trying to learn scalping for a little bit now and I am thoroughly confused. I think the main thing that has confused me is how I got used to the higher TF like 4-hour and Daily. I studied those for so much that I got used to everything needing to be so precise.
Where would I go to learn what scalping is all about and how to interpret the smaller TF charts?
Not sure what you’re getting @ 100% here- you need to be even more precise on faster time frames.
Anything that “happens” on a higher timeframe, happens similarly on a lower one.
What’s your definition of scalping? That’s where we can start.
USDJPY M5 EARLY NY SESSION
VIA FXCM MOBILE TRADING APP
Low, lower low, higher low bottoming pattern (inverse head and shoulders)- yellow formation.
Trading into a zone of demand (green rectangle).
Long entry was late, but still valid.
Target is a 786 FIB retrace (and/or) logical price action resistance point @ origin of selling.
Filled
Stop in Red / Limit in Green.
8P stop / 19P limit (roughly 2.4P to gain for every 1P risked).
Got a boost from Super Mario, but, this pattern will play out more-often-than-not, so that’s where the focus needs to be.
Selling after ECB rally.
Jake
The JPY has been offering great intraday opportunities to capitalize on these corrective risk-on rallies. It’s honestly been really interesting to see. Here’s another one - position filled around NY close, just booked for profit.
See the above post showing the basic concept behind this type of trade.
Stop / entry / limit via M1 chart.
19P risked / 45P target.
Stop never threatened, trailed stop (via M5 chart).
This trade took a bit longer than expected to get moving, but, still played out for good R:R.
Was watching the Nikkei closely and actually pulled my limit order b/c it looked like we were going to clear 16,720 and maybe get a pop on the KiwiYen. However, booked @ original limit and shut down for the night. Still feeling that we’re risk-averse generally speaking and don’t need to keep this open overnight.
Running into very key levels heading into the close of this trading week.
Stay on your toes.
[B]On the radar[/B]:
SP500 1993
FXCM USDOLLAR 12000
XAUUSD 1280
USOIL 38.28
Thank you for the warning, keep the great job on this thread
Should have stop and reversed buddy:D
Shoulda coulda woulda - right? lol.
Typically, I’ll only stop and reverse on a trade like that if I was wrong on my initial assessment, and now need to flip my position. In other words- I don’t think it’s wise to book profit, then immediately flip the position to try and take advantage of a move against your original analysis. It probably works for some people, just not me.
Where it definitely works- scalping order flow on the DOM in the futures market.
Thanks for the compliment.
The SP has been very resilient- this rally has had very little volume behind it and I remain cautious on that front.
Was really surprised on how much XAU pulled back after breaching 1280. Staying bullish XAU as long as we’re above 1200.
Watchlist
FX MAJORS: EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCAD USDCHF USDOLLAR
FX JPY: EURJPY GBPJPY AUDJPY NZDJPY CADJPY CHFJPY
OTHER FX: EURGBP EURAUD EURNZD EURCAD AUDNZD GBPCHF
EQUITIES: SPX500 JPN225 DYJ0 QQQ EEM XLF SPY SPXS TNX VXX VIX
COMMODITIES: XAUUSD GDX UGLD GEUR GYEN IAU USOIL
R they the only ones you trade?
Hey- apologize for the delay; was on vacation last week.
To answer your question- yes.
Time to go short on EURUSD maybe. I see an entry now, Stop around 1.13500 and looking for a test of 1.10000. Pretty strong range we been in for 15 months. History does repeat and nothing really suggesting this pattern will stop soon.
Any thoughts on what might prevent this from happening Jake
P.s yes thats my beloved tick chart underneath 
It looks like the USD may get a bit of a pop this week after getting sold pretty hard last THU and FRI. I shorted GBPUSD, and EURUSD is showing a similar intraday bearish breakout pattern.