Appreciate the response Jake. My fault for not understanding how this forum works. I meant what I said about you providing a service here because it seems like 2 out of the 5000 systems on here that actually are consistently profitable and clear in approach than having 12 indicators on your screen. Not that there’s anything wrong with indicators. But I prefer more of your approach to trading than say a Cowabunga or something like that.
Keep an eye on XAGUSD - a solid close today to round out this week, would confirm XAU is moving up as well. Range broken to the topside.
Lots of ways to take advantage of a precious metal rally / resumption of the longer-term bull trend…
Confirmed.
This type of 1-way, straight-up price action is indicative of two very important things:
- Short-sellers covering
- New long positions entering
$17.00 was a very high probability zone to sell XAG. It was the convergence of a 38.2 FIB retrace, 20 month range resistance, and the ceiling of a ~33 month channel. This is very bullish.
Additional confirmation- head and shoulders bottom, cup and handle bottom, establishment of a new upward sloping channel.
The thing about this type of price action- most traders who are new to the game have this crazy “requirement” that they can only buy or sell on a “pullback”. Well, if you’re trading off this single chart timeframe, or maybe one other, chances are, you never saw a “pullback” and you’ve now potentially missed a great entry point. This is why retail traders are notorious for losing in the long-run; simply because by the time they are comfortable enough to enter the market, it’s too late.
Hence the, “AS SOON AS I BOUGHT, THE MARKET MOVED AGAINST ME AND TOOK OUT MY STOP! THEN, THE MARKET RALLIED RIGHT BACK UP TO MY ENTRY POINT!!” complaint you hear 5-10x week on most trading forums.
However, I will concede right now and admit the likelihood of a pullback after such an exhaustive move is somewhat likely.
There are many ways you can trade (what I’m calling the resumption of) the precious-metal-complex rally.
Physical metals
Options
Futures
Equities (ETF)
TNX- ALL TIME HIGHS
TLT- ALL TIME LOWS
SWISS YIELD CURVE 0 - 50 YRS = NEGATIVE!!
BUND = NEGATIVE
US10YR 1.45!
1 RATE HIKE Q4 '15. “4 MORE '16”. “3 MORE '16”. “2 MORE '16”. “1 MORE '16”. “NO MORE UNTIL '18”. “RATE CUT IN '17”. “QE4 IN '17”.
“THE FED IS NOT DATA-DEPENDENT ON ONE-SINGLE POINT.”
38K NFP. NO HIKE.
BREXIT. NO HIKE.
The FED has 168% lost ALL credibility they had left (which was close-to-none to begin with). They are behind the curve, out of touch with reality, and these markets are about to wake up to the fact that QE is a short-term fix w/ major negative long-term ramifications.
Tip my hat to the central planners around the globe: You’re negative rates QE infinity monetary experiment is a success! You’ve inflated the largest stock market bubble in the history of markets.
SHAKE
MY
HEAD
…What financial crisis?
Jake
July 5, 2016 19:22 EDT
I really can’t find the words to describe how I feel about these markets right now, so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from my analysis, if you’re interested.
I STILL feel the real story here is Oil. 90% of the time this trading year, equities have moved almost in lock-step w/ WTI. There is a major disconnect right now as oil is breaking range lows and equities are testing range highs…
And the dollar is apparently back in rally mode.
Meanwhile - 10YR! XAU! Swiss yield curve! Bunds!!
What the hell is going on here? If Q1 profits were killed by “USD headwinds” and “weak oil” - what will Q3/Q4 look like w/ Brexit uncertainty, a resilient USD and cheap oil? Oh, and pretty much a 0.00% chance that the FED will ever get out of 25-50bps in the next two years?
::scratching my head::
Let’s all pile into the S&P, b/c as long as everyone is buying, or money is safe.
YTD / 6MO SNAPSHOT - ORIGIN FEB 2016 (when my trading year starts).
Overall, pretty happy w how 2016 is shaping up.
Got a lot more aggressive (thus the volatile swings) - not 100% proud of having 50% DD, but @ the same time - big reward typically doesn’t come w/o big risk. And to me, it’s all about how you finish, not how you got there.
MAY was a bit rough, but I was able to completely recoup in JUN and get back on track. Targeting b/w 350-400% this year for FX.
Equities - still in a bit of a drawdown, but XAG and XAU ETF trades are really starting to pick up and mitigate some of that. Short SP, long XAG/XAU, long VIX.
Options - had significant profits the MON after Brexit, and made the(in hindsight, incorrect) decision to not take anything off the table, as the nearly-100% across-the-board retrace I did not see coming…so, in a bit of DD w/ my options account. But, I have a 100+ day silver call that just came ITM and that should marinate for the next 60 days or so. Short financials, short tech.
For the second half of the year I’m going to approach the charts w/ a much more short-term mindset. A lot of positions I put on quickly moved in the money, but I was getting a bit greedy and barely took anything off the table only to bail @ entry, or get stuck in a DD period. I lost sight of this tactic that I had been touting for months in this thread, that you “need to be in and out b/c traders are controlling these markets”. W/ the SP still in a range, I think there is uncertainty in equities and you’d be hard pressed to say that the risk is to the upside.
Jake
I believe price is back at the botttom green line.
Are you in?
Hello, are you still trading? I like your style, hopefully you keep posting. Thanks