Hi folks,
After all this time and money this seems like a stupid question to be asking BUT I need some input here (also - this may seem like a ‘duplicate’ thread because of a thread posted prior to this enquiring as to how much profit is possible trading forex - but that thread - well - let’s just say - seems to have some type of commercial angle to it - and for those of you who know me - mine’s purely personal I can assure you)!
For the past six or so months I have been trying to figure how come I’m always up and then down and then always up and then down again. So - I printed reports of every single trade that I have made over this period and it became blatantly obvious that the main reason (aside for the ‘noob’ mistakes in the beginning) that my problem is ‘greed’ or not knowing when to stop. If I look at these reports - taking good trades that were at some point or another in a profit situation (and had actually taken the profit BEFORE they turned into a loss) - and subtracting bad trades that never turned to profits - I should be a wealthy man right now!
So this weekend I devised a spreadsheet - setting a final goal amount over a period - and my problem is that the figures look too good to be true (which - as we all know - then usually are).
Having said that - I know that (particularly in the past couple of weeks) - that the figures ARE attainable - so this is a bit of self doubt coming in here now - that I’d like some input on.
What I have done is this: taken my current capital amount, added 20% per week to that as a target profit, calculated the minimum number of $50 lots to be used i.e. 10% of the capital amount to give me a maximum to be using at any one time, and it turns out that it would take 41 weeks to land up with a balance of over $2 000 000. Is this possible or am I fooling myself?
Before you pass comment - there are one or two additional things to bear in mind (particular to my situation and me):
First - I (now) only (mainly) trade the DAX - and - depending on whether or not I’m getting good signals for my system - the Nasdaq, Dow, S&P, Euro Stoxx, Gold, MSCI Taiwan, Oil, FTSE, SMI, CAC, and Silver etc. etc. The reason I mention this is that, because of the volatility and tick values of these instruments (particularly the DAX and CAC), making $500 in one or two hours is really not difficult at all (and aside from that I now only trade the daily charts - no more 5 and 15 minutes for me)! I am now also using a combination of Bill Williams’ Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System (which is an absolute dream) and Pivot Point Trading - so making these kinds of profits - even on a daily basis - is NOT impossible at all - actually TAKING the profit - and then waiting for the next valid signal - IS the problem (see point two below)!
Second - I cannot tell you how many times in the last six months I have been sitting on profits in excess of $1 000 for one $50 lot on the DAX and then just left the position open (because my stop loss has not been hit and hoping for a trend to develop) only to find that instead of taking the $1 000 profit I’ve ended taking more than that in a loss.
I’ve tried playing around with different (lower) percentages per week i.e. 15%, 10%, and 5% but the weekly target amounts are then ridiculously low (because of the information detailed above). I mean - the DAX can turn to $100 profit in minutes (which - like I said before - I ALWAYS hang on to the position until it becomes a loss).
So - the idea being - that having this spreadsheet or ‘goal’ amount - should ‘force’ me to close out profit making positions - and make it easier to take losses i.e. as long as you are on target for the week - it does not matter that you may take losses one day, profits the next, and maybe a mixture the next - as long as by the NY close on Thursday night (I no longer trade on Fridays either - learned that lesson the hard way) - you are at your weekly target.
I mean - is this possible? Is there anybody else working on these type of percentages / returns?
The biggest problem that I can forsee with this is that let’s say, for example, by Monday afternoon - I just happen to have made the required weekly target profit amount - I’m not sure that I could just sit around until next Monday to start on next weeks target profit amount - and I just KNOW that this will be the downfall of this system!!!
Any input?
Regards,
Dale.