Let me know what you find out
Lost 52 pips on this audnzd sell.
The reason is , sold it to soon and got the resistance level wrong. Probably placed my stop right into a stop hunt area.
This is still the best looking rubber band trade out there today. I am going to sell it again.
We are 4 wins 1 loss
You can see that here
Rubber Band Trade System | Myfxbook
50 line is still flat and we are at a good resistance level now.
Any thoughts on Eur/Gbp? 50 sma seems flat. May have to wait for it to hit resistance at .82045 before trying a long?
And Gbp/Chf ? 50sma pointing down. Maybe short it after it hits resistance at 1.4840 ?
The EURGBP 50 line is curving down so we have to wait. But it looks like it will be a good trade at some point. yes wait for it to hit support.
The GBPCHF closed above 1.4800 yesterday and the 50 line has a curve up now. So we wait. I just got home so I am sifting through the charts. But i am up 33 pips on the AUDNZD trade I got back in. That seems to be the best one right now
What we are basically doing is trading the range. As you know markets are ranging 80% of the time, then they trend . So trading the range is sometimes the way to go. What i do is add in the 50 SMA and wait for the signal and hopefully get in at the top or the bottom of that range.
The AUDNZD daily chart above is the perfect example of this. Support and Resistance is critical as I found out yesterday when I got the resistance level all wrong and lost 52 pips. But I am back in selling it again . Up 35 pips. Target is still the 50 line 140 pips from my entry. The 50 line has got a slight curve down now at the tip.
The AUDNZD is currently in a 377 pip range. The hard part is the pair could break out of itās range at anytime.
GBPCHF see how the 50 line has a curve up ? Use your curser line or drop in a horizontal line to see if the line is flat or curved
Same with the eurgbp
[B]āMost retail traders are right, but they are right at the wrong timeā[/B] This is so true. Using the trade yesterday where I got stopped out . I think this trade now is going to go where I think. It very well may not, it may trend up and out of this range.
There is also much truth to the stop hunt I spoke of in a earlier post. We have all seen it happen. You get in a trade , you place your stop , then the price goes right to your stop and then goes where you thought it would.
I saw a youtube video last year, it was a guy interviewing an āinstitutional traderā . The trader was asked how much money he trades at any one time. His answer was 600 . The interviewer said, ā600 thousand?ā The trader said " no , 600 million per trade"
The pros know exactly where all of our stops are , they take them out on a regular basis.
Try thisā¦ When you are about to get in a trade , you are placing a stop , DONT TRADE IT Instead put a horizontal line at your entry and another at your stop . And wait .
Patients is key to trading. Then see if you would have been stopped out.
Or ā¦ Put an entry order to buy or sell where you would have placed your stop.
Good luck
Hi rjmah, Iām very impressed with what I see here. I read through your thread and just watched Dr. Burnsā video. I had a few questions and comments.
Your single losing trade on the AUD/NZD may have been at a minor support level but it was not showing a clear reversal. You sold right after that bullish engulfing bar which had a very strong close. As a price action trader I would have said no way! I think this system can be refined even further with the addition of some price action candles and only trading when they show clear rejection or reversal from the opposite direction of the intended entry, which would have kept you out of that trade.
Iām also curious as to why you modified the stop loss. You said that you place the stop as half of the distance to the SMA, essentially limiting yourself to a risk:reward of 1:2. In the video, Dr. Burns placed his stop at the low of the entry candle. His method makes more sense to me, as each time you take a wrong entry and get stopped out, your reward will be increased next time you enter (assuming price always reverts to the 50 SMA). Hence a string of losses in a row would be no problem as the final trade would make up for all of the previous losses plus some profit on top of that. All without the rubbish of Martingaleā¦ Did you try his method and find it did not work as well as it should in theory?
I saw you are trading with FXCM, do you use New York close (5 PM) charts? I trade the Daily charts already and I really like that I only need to check in once per day.
Looking forward to trying out this method on a demo account. Iāll post some of the set-ups I find in this thread if you donāt mind?
Best,
Jadd
Hey Jadd,
Thanks for the post, some refining is always good. Entering and exiting trades is always a challenge, and it is a major factor . I was looking on myfxbook and my entry and exit accuracy percentage. My entry accuracy average is 71.66 and exit accuracy is 67.8 ā¦
The 1 loss ruined my averagesā¦haha.
I have studied and traded price action quite a bit over the past 5 years. I learned most of it from Nial Fuller at learntotradethemarket.com some great videos there.
As far as placing stops. I always adjust where I put my stops with each trade. I found if I keep them to tight I always get stopped out. Even price action candle patterns can be fakes. I try to stick to daily chart support and resistance , trends and ranges. Just like the audnzd chart I posted above.
Range trading the daily chart is my favorite, adding the 50 line reduces the amount of trades you will get, but make them better trades. There are always multiple pairs at the top or bottom of their ranges at the same time.
I live in California , I do use fxcm and the 5pm close (which is 2pm for me) I donāt get home until 7pm PDT so that is 5 hours after the new candle. It seems to work for me.
Please post up some set ups you find.
Thanks
Here is a current chart of the audnzd daily chart so you can see what I see. It is still a good rubber band trade in my opinion. Got a nice drop at the open today, hope it continues. Up 30 pips. I added 2 horizontal lines to define the range, and 1 trend line.
I use trend lines quite a bit. Sometimes I just trade the break and target support or resistance.
And sometimes I use trend lines to confirm or to stay in a trade.
In this case i will use the trend line break to stay in this audnzd sell trade
Just did a manual Daily backtest (candle by candle, no ācheatingā) for the whole year of 2013 on 4 pairs - AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD. This system is showing a lot of promise after some tweaking.
Results:
- 18 trade ideas
- 4 not triggered, trade canceled
- 14 triggered
- 2 losses
- 5 break-evens
- 7 wins
Average reward:risk of the winners was ~1.5:1. Lots of BE trades but I donāt mind - it prevents more losers than it creates winners.
Risking 5% of the account per trade would have resulted in 50% growth over the course of one year taking these 18 trades.
Now thatās only 4 pairsā¦ I watch about 30 charts. Therefore I would have about 135 entries every year, or about one entry every other day (260 trading days per year). Compound [I]that[/I]; it would be insane.
YMMV (possibly extremely), as I donāt enter every potential trade. I use price action and my discretion to determine when to enter, if at all.
Going to open a small live account after I get through my exams at the beginning of the week. Iāll start with $100, and if Iām profitable after 10 trades Iāll bump it up to $500. Iāll continue to add funds in steps to the account as I review my progress until Iāve deposited a total of $5,000.
Good Jadd , let me know how it goes and how you want to trade the setups.
GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP SMAās are both starting to curl in a favorable direction, with plenty of space to the SMA to trade into. Gold could present a good trade soon too.
I just deposited my $100 with FXCM today.
We will see how tomorrow closes, as the price action is not there yet for either of these pairs to indicate a reversal.
Just got some help from the AUD CPI news. at 6:30pm PST.
Here is my current chart and position in the AUDNZD sell . up about 50 pips .
Awesome on the account !!, Iām watching as many pairs as I can. Can only have 20 open at 1 time . Keep me updated, I will do the same.
Now I see why you open market orders at support/resistance instead of waiting for a confirmation candle that price has reversed. The initial move is pretty explosive and you will miss out on most of it if you wait, as I saw today on GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Iām not going to try to chase those trades as theyāve already made their move.
Selling at market will probably lead to more losers but the R:R will be a lot higher as youāre not waiting around for the confirmation candle which is usually pretty explosive and thus would require a large stop, lowering your R:R.
Gold seems to be presenting a nice rubber band trade:
Edit: Whoops, looks like U.S. residents canāt trade CFDās including Gold with FXCM. Oh well. We can still watch and see how it plays out.
Yep, I like trading the range on the daily chart. I still do, only now I trade it with the 50 line. I closed my audnzd rubber band sell today for 102 pips . Here it is, I think it will eventually head all the way down to the bottom of itās range. my tiny account is up over 70% this month. 5 winners 1 loser , you can see it here.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/rjm354/rubber-band-trade/767601
I kinda like the looks of this. It is still around 100 pips from the line . Not sure about the resistance level it is at. But the 50 line has a little slope down . Thatās a good sign. I may get in this trade.
how much u risk per trade? and i look at all pairs of my broker hope thats enough 
i think this method is also good for binary options ( but binary options are the devil)