Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for July 25, 2012 taken at 7:15 GMT:
NZD – 6
AUD – 6
GBP – 3
CAD – 3
EUR – 2
CHF – 2
USD – 1
JPY – 0
Today’s results confirm yesterday’s in the sense that they call for strength in NZDJPY. Given the bearishness of the higher-timeframe charts, I still don’t consider this a tradeable pair; however, I do expect this pair to carry higher at least to 62.00 before resuming the downtrend.
The PDF explaning how the daily calculations are done, with plenty of examples and illustrations, is currently under preparation and on schedule for posting here in August.
I wunder if we have seen the high on usd/chf now?!
Maybe its time for down move now…
Looking forward to read the pdf file!
Thank you
I’ve been following the topping process in USDCHF over the past couple weeks (separate thread on this topic at 301 Moved Permanently) and I do think we are headed down now at least to .9765 (Fibonacci support). The USD in general looks to me like it will be quite bullish as equities decline (at least as I expect them to) over the next few weeks, which makes me cautious about calling for a deeper decline in USDChF, but there’s not doubt that the CHF got deeply oversold and I also suspect that the Swiss National Bank won’t be able to maintain the EURCHF peg past October, which should bring a lot of buyers to this currency.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for July 25, 2012 taken at 23:30 GMT:
GBP – 6
AUD – 4
NZD – 3
CAD – 2
EUR – 1
USD – 1
CHF – 0
JPY – 0
Today’s most polarized pairs are GBPJPY and GBPCHF. In the case of GBPCHF, this pair looks like it is due for a very short-term correction higher to around 1.5350 before resuming the down trend that dominates the higher-timeframe charts.
The strong bullish reading in GBPJPY seems to be emerging ahead of a test of the historic lows around 117 – which, when/if price reaches that level, I expect a strong turn to the upside. However, since 117 is still a few hundred pips away, I don’t consider today’s bullish reading on GBPJPY to be tradeable. It does tell me, however, to keep my eye on this pair and seek an entry point around 117 to 119.
The rise I expected yesterday in NZDJPY seems about spent. Price has nearly reached the expected target range near 62 and I anticipate the down trend in this pair to resume shortly.
Here are today’s short-term momentum strength scores for July 27, 2012 taken at 2:00 GMT:
USD – 7
JPY – 6
CAD – 5
GBP – 3
EUR – 2
AUD – 1
CHF – 1
NZD – 0
Today’s most polarized pair is NZDUSD (with bearish bias). Based on wave structure, I still see this pair moving to a slight new high above .8076 after a brief pullback today. Therefore, if I am going to short this pair, I would like to wait for the new high and re-check momentum readings at that point. I am still short AUDUSD and, while I think we will also see a slight new high in that pair (above 1.0443 but below 1.0550), I am looking at this as an opportunity to build a larger short position at a better price than I got on my initial entry.
To review some of this week’s previous momentum signals, the bullish signals on NZDJPY and GBPJPY turned out to produce even bigger moves than I expected. In GBPCHF, we did see a brief spike above the 1.5350 level I was targeting before a sharp reversal.
Though the USD produced the maximum strength score of 7 today, I view this more as a sign that the dollar’s recent weakness is entering its final (slower) stage, rather than a sign that it has ended. In terms of wave structure, the Dollar Index still needs to fall at least .6% nominally before it looks ready for reversal. This means that the weaker currencies, such as NZD, AUD, and CHF will find it harder to make gains against the buck over the next few trading days and will likely reverse trend before GBPUSD and USDCAD do.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for July 30, 2012 taken at 2:00 GMT:
JPY - 7
USD - 6
CAD - 4
GBP - 4
AUD - 2
EUR - 1
CHF - 1
NZD - 0
Our most polarized pair today is NZDJPY, which looks overbought on the 15M chart out to the 1H chart. This pair just barely meets my trading criteria and so I’ve entered a short at the current price of 63.29. Limit is 62.70 and stop is 64.37. I will be adding to my short at 63.29 and 63.65 if price gets that high.
NZDUSD made the new high I was looking for last week and I now consider this to be a solid signal to short. I’ve entered a short trade at .8071, targeting .8000 with a stop at .8185. I’ll be adding to my short at .8091 and .8137 if price gets that high.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for July 31, 2012 taken at 1:15 GMT:
USD – 6
JPY – 6
EUR – 4
CHF – 4
GBP – 3
NZD – 0
AUD – 0
CAD – 0
Today’s results give us many heavily polarized pairs and biases for the next few days:
NZDUSD (bearish)
AUDUSD (bearish)
USDCAD (bullish)
NZDJPY (bearish)
AUDJPY (bearish)
CADJPY (bearish)
Yesterday’s short trade in NZDJPY is up a mere one pip at the current time, and while today’s momentum figures give me confidence that price will hit my target, I also won’t be surprised if the markets hits my second short entry on this pair at 63.65 before doing so.
The wave structure in AUDJPY suggests the likelihood of a new short-term high before heading lower, therefore, I do not consider today’s momentum result to be tradeable.
However, the Elliott Wave structure in CADJPY is more bearish and I’ve decided to take a short trade in this pair today. I’ve entered at the current price of 78.07, targeting 77.60 and with a stop just above the previous short-term high at 78.34.
I am already short AUDUSD and NZDUSD – no modifications here to the current setups.
In USDCAD, I believe that a trend change is near; however, I’d like to see confirmation that a bullish trend has begun on the 5-minute chart before trying to get long on this pair.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for July 31, 2012 taken at 23:30 -
GBP – 4
USD – 3
CHF – 3
JPY – 2
EUR – 2
CAD – 1
NZD – 1
AUD – 0
The most notable thing about today’s scores is the fact that no currency could achieve more than 4 of the maximum seven points in the scale. This suggests that the market is napping at the moment, probably in preparation for the FOMC meeting. Nonetheless, our most polarized pair for today, GBPAUD, is one to watch out for. While it doesn’t meet the required 6-0 or 7-0 score to justify a trade under my trading rules, nonetheless, the bias here is in favor of the bulls and I anticipate a pop up to at least 1.5100 in this pair over the next few trading sessions.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 2, 2012 taken at 0:10 GMT:
GBP – 7
USD – 6
CHF – 3
CAD – 2
EUR – 2
AUD – 2
JPY – 1
NZD – 0
Today’s results suggest that USD strength will continue over the next few trading days, while yesterday’s suggestion of GBP strength is reiterated. The most polarized pair, GBPNZD, looks poised for a quick spurt higher; however, at the higher time frames this pair still looks quite bearish and therefore I am not looking to trade this pair today.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 3, 2012 taken at 3:00 GMT:
GBP – 6
EUR – 6
CHF – 5
AUD – 2
NZD – 2
CAD – 1
USD – 0
JPY – 0
The British Pound has been signalling that a bullish reversal is near for the last few days, so I have to be expecting higher prices in GBPUSD and GBPJPY over the next few days. Same with EURUSD and EURJPY.
Of these four highly polarized pairs, the only one that has the right combination of a clearly bullish Elliott Wave count and bullish momentum divergences at higher time frames is EURJPY. I have entered a small long position in EURJPY today at 95.24, with a limit at 96.90 and a stop at 93.59. I will be adding leverage to this position should price reach 94.67 and 94.12.
Chào đồng hương, rất vui vi biết 1 đồng bào ở nơi đây.
Hihi, tiện thể, mình là người mới trong lĩnh vực này, có thể chia sẻ với mình nhận định về Gbpusd tuần sau, từ 6/8/2012 đc ko bạn ???
Thanks.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 6, 2012 taken at 00:30 GMT:
JPY- 6
GBP – 5
USD – 4
CAD- 2
AUD – 2
NZD – 2
EUR - 1
CHF – 0
In general, I expect the USD to strengthen after hitting short-term oversold territory late last week. However, the GBP and JPY are also likely to be resilient, especially against the currencies that showed exuberant strength late last week (EUR and CHF) and which are now in need of a correction.
Today’s most polarized pair, CHFJPY, is not one I’d like to take a short trade on, as I think it has begun a long-term uptrend. Should this pair pull back to the 80.00 handle, I’d consider it for a buy.
Xin chào mừng bạn đến thị trường forex… đầy tiềm năng và cũng không thiểu rủi ro! Tôi cũng rất vui khi thấy ngày càng có nhiều người Việt biết đến forex trading.
Theo tôi, GBPUSD sẽ tiếp tục dao động giữa 1.5500 và 1.5820. Đầu tuần nay, tôi dự đoán GBPUSD sẽ xuống mức 1.5560-1.5580 và sau đó bắt đầu đi lên 1.5700. Tuy nhiên, đến khoảng ngày Thứ 3-Thứ 4 chúng ta phải xem xét lại tình hình USD thế nào thì mới có thể tương đối chắc chắn về xu hướng của GBPUSD.
Dạ vâng, tối nay ra tin USD. Có vẻ như Ben Bernanke sẽ tạo áp lực lớn đến USD. Em cũng cho rằng, đầu tuần này thứ 2,3 thì sẽ lên theo channel up ở trung hạn, em soi theo daily chart thì thấy giá đã qua Pivot daily, , nhưng tiếp theo thế nào thì em cũng chưa biết thế nào .
Em nghĩ thứ 2 này, chắc test hỗ trợ tại 1.5620… target trong phiên Á-ÂU chắc lên đc 1.5660
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 7, 2012 taken at 11:45 GMT:
USD – 6
GBP – 5
CAD – 5
JPY – 4
AUD – 3
CHF – 1
EUR - 0
NZD – 0
The USD seems to be itching for a significant rally despite a lot of mainstream anti-USD forecasts. Once again, the NZDUSD comes out as the most polarized pair and I maintain my short position. On a short-term momentum basis the EUR looks overbought; however, longer-term charts suggest EUR has quite a distance to go to the upside . I may entertain shorting EURUSD if 1.27 is reached.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 8, 2012:
USD – 6
JPY – 6
AUD – 4
GBP – 3
NZD – 3
CAD - 2
EUR – 0
CHF – 0
Today’s scores suggest that the strength we saw yesterday in USD still has quite a lot of room to go. The yen, which has weakened substantially since August 3, is due for a correction and should rise moderately higher over the next couple of days.
Our most polarized pairs are USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY, and CHFJPY.
I have taken today’s bullish signal in USDCHF as an opportunity to close my short in this pair. I shorted from a net level of .9901 beginning July 12, producing a profit of 210 pips over 27 days.
Yesterday’s bearish momentum on EURUSD has continued into today and while I can easily see a short-term pullback to 1.2344 or slightly lower, as stated yesterday, I am not really entertaining shorting this pair unless and until price nears 1.2700.
EURJPY and CHFJPY look primed for short-term pullbacks as well; if I were a shorter-term and more speculative trader, I would target 96.78 in EURJPY and 80.58 in CHFJPY today. However, I will wait for a stronger and clearer trading signal with confirmation at the higher time frames before entering a new trade this month.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 9, 2012 taken at 11:00 GMT:
NZD – 7
USD – 5
JPY – 3
EUR – 2
CHF – 2
AUD – 2
CAD – 2
GBP – 0
Today we have a clearly defined polarized pair, GBPNZD. This pair meets my trading rules’ non-momentum requirements and thus I’ve entered a short at 1.9270, targeting 1.9196. My stop is at 1.9573. I will be adding leverage to this position at 1.9356 and 1.9465 if price reaches those levels.
Here are the short-term momentum strength scores for August 9, 2012 taken at 23:30:
CHF – 6
EUR – 5
NZD – 5
JPY – 3
USD – 2
AUD – 2
GBP – 0
CAD – 0
Based on today’s results, I am expecting the CADCHF pair to go through a topping process over the next two to three weeks. Should price approach parity, I may entertain a short trade in this pair if the wave count looks right and if bearish momentum divergences develop in the 2H and 4H charts. I am also beginning to monitor GBPCHF now for a possible short trade from the 1.5350 area is price gets that high.
The NZD is showing strong signs of a sharp bullish correction to manifest over the next 48 hours, and I expect my short trade in GBPNZD to complete at that time. However, I still think the longer-term trend in NZDUSD is down in fact I am looking for the entire move from July 25 to be retraced, i.e. price below .7800 in NZDUSD by October.