S&P500 
The S&P500 is playing exactly as mentioned in the previous analysis, following perfectly 2013 price action, the buying zone worked nicely and i now see a break of all time highs coming in the weeks ahead, we can expect indices to benefit from the “risk-on” flow, we are heading into the Christmas season which is known to boost stocks, and with Trump heading into the elections he will do “whatever it takes” to have his S&P500 at all time highs, at the same time the FED is slowly but steadily cutting rates which will help stocks rallies.
On the chart above you can see the plan for S&P longs.
Crude Oil reached target, we personally got out of the trade 53.30 for a small loss to keep the risk of the portfolio in check, it eventually went to target, i don’t see it going much further from current levels so take your profits.
I find that this is very nice thread. I like your posts as there is something new to learn. Thank you for your share. I can see that break is coming, but I wanted to ask you how do you determine that the break will be on up side? Thank you
Hey mate, what’s the asset you are referring to?
S&P500
I would say it’s safe to take the profits here to avoid a sell off in case the negotiations between China and the US escalates over the Hong Kong bill.
A chart speaks more than 1000 words here, EURUSD cycle…
Have a few more researches showing EURUSD upside is coming, will post them soon.
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GOLD The year-end opportunity…
We are entering a strong period of seasonal flows, GOLD tends to run higher as demand picks us from Dec 23rd and keeps increasing through January, you can see this on the chart by yourself too, look at the past years for GOLD and you will see rallies in prices from exactly Dec 23rd, i have already set a few pending order and will look to add trough January.
We have two scenarios here, first one is a selloff of safe heavens given the positive outcome of trade talks, which would allow us to buy at the cheapest price, second scenario is an immediate break of the wedge and resistance which would turn into support allowing us to buy at the retest, we will not deploy capital until one of the two scenarios materializes, trade safe.
Are you referring to COT data or individual brokers clients positions?
Id be much happier if it was COT data, not sure broker clients positions has a track.record of any substance yet.
The retail data we use is taken from various brokers and then we make an average, for the seasonality we take commercial flows of the previous 10 years and then build a chart with that, for more info on the tools we use feel free to check the “BeSomebodyFX Terminal” on Google.
Happy new year.
Thanks alot will do.
Happy new year
AUDNZD stop trying to pick the bottom and start selling…
The divergence between the RBA and RBNZ monetary policy is now back in play because of the Australian bushfires, data from Australian will be impacted by the bushfire, starting from GDP to then spill over jobs, the RBA will have to cut rates one more time while the RBNZ is now comfortably neutral, AUDNZD are once again very attractive shorts.
Retails are now more than 92% long and they keep adding trying to pick the bottom, don’t be like them and think professionally, we have highlighted the best entry zone to short AUDNZD.
Price action on USDJPY since August…
The picture is pretty straight forward, buy any dip caused by temporary concerns, the majority of my telegram followers voted that the Coronavirus will fade away from the media soon and i do agree with them, no virus ever had a lasting impact on the markets and Trump and his administration will come to rescue indices if they fall sharply on the virus headlines by tweeting positive comments on phase 2 with China and so on inevitably pumping USDJPY too.
We know that institutions are adding JPY shorts on these Coronavirus rallies which further confirms our view that the recent moves will fade over the coming weeks…
Retails here are 80% long so it’s too early to jump into longs but it’s something worth keeping an eye on and track when retails switch from longs to shorts.
Natural Gas giving a new opportunity to sell…
We have been shorting Natural Gas since January 25 for one reason, seasonal commercial flows, we know thanks to our tools that Natural Gas demand decreases from January 25 to February 12 and that causes Natural Gas prices to decrease in this time range almost every year.
It’s, of course, a great opportunity which we have been capitalizing on and continue to capitalize on, you can too, in the chart above you can see the best entry zone right now and the targets.
Natural Gas has been a fun ride, some positions went out at break even, some took early profits but overall the zone worked perfectly, it’s loosing a bit of strength now so will start to be careful opening new trades, we have no position running at the moment in this asset.
Question, seems this thread is not getting much attention, is anybody interested in it?
Don’t forget to keep buying the dips especially now that Coronavirus worries are fading away from the markets, the next few weeks confirmed cases will likely slowdown, recovery rate will increase and China will push upbeat positive news to keep their markets supported, which means risk assets like USDJPY will edge higher.