The EUR/CHF pushed lower this week after finding short-term resistance at the 20-Day SMA, and we are likely to see the pair face increased selling pressures over the week as the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to a record-low of 1.00%.
[B]Currency Pair:[/B] EUR/CHF
[B]Chart:[/B] 60 Min Charts
[B]Short-Term Bias:[/B] Flat
[B][U]Analysis[/U][/B]
The EUR/CHF pushed lower this week after finding short-term resistance at the 20-Day SMA, and we are likely to see the pair face increased selling pressures over the week as the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to a record-low of 1.00%. After slipping to a low of 1.4299 in October, the euro-franc snapped back to reach a high of 1.5885 on 12/15, but the lack of momentum to retrace the sell-off from September is likely to hold the pair in a downward trend, and we may see the EUR/CHF push back below 1.4900-10 (61.8% Fib) this month as the euro-region faces its worst economic downturn in over half a century. Over the next few hours of trading, we may see the pair continue to hold a tight range to trade along the 120 SMA however, as the ECB is anticipated to ease policy further this week, we could see the pair fall below last week’s low, and may work its way towards 1.5034, the 100-Day SMA. Nevertheless, as the Swiss National Bank pledges to stem the risks for deflation and attempts to put a floor on the exchange rate, expectations for an intervention could keep the pair within a broad range over the near-term. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.
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