Simple & almost naked. The dream date or the dream system?

[sandybeach]

Blizard one question, i am having a little issue with exiting trades, i either cut them short of profit or miss it and end up with a loss.

What do you recommend, i like the idea of just going for 5 pips, but what happens if we dont get our TP, do we accept it as a loss?

Thanks

[sandybeach]

@Greg_Jones

Blizard,
This was a perfect setup for a 10 plus pip trade. The dashed line is a 50 sma for trend. Read and black lines are pivots. When you have time could you review how to use fib retracements as SR to keep me out of bad trades. I’m only having a 50% win rate and need help. Should I just stay with the the eurusd and the gbp/usd?

Thanks,
Greg

This strategy will work on any pair, but the more movement a pair has like EUR/USD the more profit we can get and the less chance of a fakeout.

Guys please correct me if i am wrong

[sandybeach]

Stockneon how are you getting on with the strategy, are you managing ?

[sandybeach]

Great work guys. Nothing wrong with adding a SMA or anything thats helps you filter bad trades. My only worry is that were getting away from the simplicity however, we need to increase the accuracy so that may be the way to go.

thanks

Blizard, maybe in a few weeks we could review your strategy, add in anything that works, chuck out what does not work so we can all keep this simple, without us adding lots of indicators which may not provide any real benefit?

I just think there have been a number of suggestions here which are good additions, but i do agree its best to keep it simple.

[CryAgony]

Blizard one question, i am having a little issue with exiting trades, i either cut them short of profit or miss it and end up with a loss.

What do you recommend, i like the idea of just going for 5 pips, but what happens if we dont get our TP, do we accept it as a loss?

Thanks

• Notice critical levels on your chart, its crucial for your analysis
• Use trail stop to let your profit run (lets say move to BE when price reach +5 pips, and trail it with 5 pips) and use it according to market sentiment, otherwise close at 5pip ofc
• SL must represent the MAXIMUM that you feel to “bet” to see if you are right or wrong, it doesn’t mean you cant close a position before the SL is triggered, when you see market going agaisnt you

-> use a contigency plan

I wont get deeper in this stuff as its a bit out of topic, but if any further view on this is needed, just tell me

Cheers

[CryAgony]

Perfect entry on AUDUSD M5 minibar 3 btw. If you let this run you are done for the day

[CryAgony]

Entry is the horizontal line, TP is the maroon line (mid figure) that has been just reached. +20pips trailing it.

NOTE: trailing it, i should be still in, but i closed it as a crucial level, a mid figure, has been reached, and 20pips with 2% risk over 10 pips SL - is a good amount of profit, that would theoretically allow me to sit on my hands till end of the week according to my weekly objectives

Cheers

[CryAgony]

also took +15 shorting AU after that and +5 shorting EURJPY (i was +14 but i got trailed stopped out)

[CryAgony]

I’d like to share the following:

today i backtested this system on M1 with 2 different parameters on 1 single pair over 1 full day:

• minibar 3: 13 win vs 7 lose (65%)
• minibar 4: 10 win vs 5 lose (66%)

Percentage of win is basically the same, but let’s do some considerations:

• this system has a big disadvantage to my eyes: you have a very bad RR ratio, so doing lot of trades can lead to have a negative balance.
• I said no. of trades, not of pips. Keeping TP 5pips would kill the account for RR reasons, also cos most of the trades noted could have run for more pips. so trail stop or splitting the profit at some point would be useful (+ use a contigency plan in case it trades against you, SL must really be a reminder imho, especially with this system)

let’s also consider is a poor backtesting, but it’s intended only to give an idea, and the system was applied “blind” - without any other filter for the signals.

I’m currently working on it, apart from fibo levels shown by the creator, I added mid/big figure and daily pivots to the chart and i’m finding a way to apply my beloved slow stoch to the system, mixed with yarara indicator, (seems to be a good mix) and plotting TMA to give me an idea where we are in terms of price.

Also multi TF analysis seems to be crucial, using M1 and M5 as we are talking of a scalp system =)

I’ll share properly when i’ve a decent plan in mind!

Cheers

[madmkiv]

Hi,

Gotta say this thread is awesome. Blizard seems a cool calm guy with out the ego issues normally found on these threads and the results are worth reading.

In response to CryAgony’s comment about RiskReward. I have seen systems that can work profitably over time with just a 50% win rate. The key to this apparent misnomer is the RR ratio e.g. a TP 30 and a SL 20 with a 50% win rate you will make money - work it out. (ok answer example: 4 trades - 2 wins & 2 losses = Profit 60 Losses 40 = total profit of 20)

However this systems SL is above/below the last dot. This can often exceed the TP. I have no magic answer to this issue but 66% winners is really very good and hope that if a perfected TP SL system can be worked out then it will benefit us all.

Happy trading :53:

[blizard]

Its really great seeing other members participating like CryAgony and madmkiv. Keep the suggestions coming guys! If you combine the breakouts of the trend-line of the original system, with the fib pullbacks to the “sweet spot”, the overall system is extremely powerful. Ill post today’s trades to illustrate.

I definitely agree with the Risk to Reward Ratio, is seems the SL is usually much larger than TP, however the system win ratio seems more than 65% from my experience.

When combined with the FIB pull backs that have a much superior Risk to Reward Ratio, the system seems well balanced.

thanks

[blizard]

Here is the first of 3 perfect fib pull back examples that have a risk to reward ratio of 1:3 at-least. The dots realy help identify the highs and lows and once you have a dot in the sweet spot of 61-76% just enter the trade. The SL is literally less than 8-10 pips away.

thanks

[blizard]

Here is the other fib entry for today, there are many more that you could have traded but these 3 were very apparent to me.

thanks

[blizard]

Here is the high point and low point of the day, here is an entry that was triggered a few hours ago. Your SL in the above 3 examples would have been approx 5-8 pips (distance between 61-76% fib lines) with the profit potential of between 30-40 pips. so 1:6 or 1:8 risk to reward Ratio.

The SL is always the other side of the 76% line

thanks

[sandybeach]

The body must close past the trend-line. Be careful however if the break of the trendline is close to the fib pull back sweet spot between the 61-76% of the larger movement. I have attached an image to explain. The candle closed past the trend-line however, not a good place to enter because of the sweet spot.

Also, i only wait for the candle to close on the time frame im trading usually 5 minute nowadays.

thanks

So if the break above the trend line as shown above, but its above the 61.5% mark of the fib lines, would you simply not enter a trade at all?

[CryAgony]

Blizzard, it’s good to see how you apply here the ICT concept of the OTE, maybe even without the direct knowledge of it :] note level 70.5 on your fibonacci

Btw i entered the previous entry on AUDUSD. I’m +9 trailing it

EDIT: trail got stopped out at +7 - Objective per trade accomplished anyway

Btw with the little abcktest of yesterday, same day, same pair, with M5 minibar 3 results would have been:

• 7 win vs 2 loses (77%)

which is quite impressing considering no entry filter were considered

Tonight if i’ve time i’ll write how i decide my entries

Cheers mates

[CryAgony]

Handsome take on the EU

[blizard]

Helli CryAgony, can you please help clarify :" Blizzard, it’s good to see how you apply here the ICT concept of the OTE, maybe even without the direct knowledge of it :] note level 70.5 on your fibonacci"

is this 70.5 a significant level? Please also expand on ICT concept of the OTE

[CryAgony]

I’m short AU +6 atm + Lookign forward to a long EJ setup

@ Blizzard : Optimal Trade Entry - Inner Circle Trader - YouTube

[blizard]

thank you sir!