Simple system but need some info

Hello!

This is my first post on the forum. :smiley:

I have a very simple trading system purley based on fundamental analysis, and trend lines. I work out the strongest currency and the weakest currency from the news reports, and then check if there is a definate trade for these pairs on the 1 hr scale. If there is I enter the trade.

This seems to work (sort of) well - I can just about break even.

The problem is I cannot figure out my stop / limits. I have tried all sorts, 50/70 (stop/limit) seemed to work OK, I even tried 60/20 which gave a lot of small successes, but these were wiped out when you took the loss. What is the general conscensus on here - what stop / limits do you use?

Another question - do we really need all these indicators? I find trend lines and fundametal analysis is all I need!

Thanks for your help.

Philip.

Hello, Philip

Your post touches on several topics, each of which could take an entire thread to discuss thoroughly. I won’t attempt that. Instead, I’ll just throw out a few comments in the hope that it stimulates further discussion.

[B]Regarding “news”: [/B]

When you refer to “news reports”, are you talking about the economic data releases that appear in various Forex Economic Calendars? If so, you are not trading on “fundamentals”; rather, you’re doing what’s referred to as “news trading” — a very difficult thing for novice traders to do successfully.

On the other hand, if you’re studying true fundamentals, and attempting to use them to guide your trading, then you are definitely in the minority around here; I would guess that 90% or more of the traders on this forum are technical traders. Consequently, there aren’t many traders here who are qualified to give specific advice on fundamental trading.

In my opinion, true fundamental analysis works well on very long time-frames — positions held for months or years. Your stop-loss and take-profit ranges (20-70 pips) indicate that you are probably day-trading. I don’t think it’s possible to apply true fundamental analysis to day-trading. But, I’m speaking from very limited personal experience with fundamental analysis.

[B]Regarding stops and limits:[/B]

Determine a rational point at which to place your stop, without considering where to place your limit. Then, determine a rational point at which to place your limit, without considering the ratio between your stop and your limit.

After you have chosen your stop and your limit, independently of one another, then compare the two to determine the implied risk/reward ratio. If that implied ratio does not comport with your trading rules, then you should reject the trade. Do not manipulate your stop, or your limit, or both, in order to make the ratio fit your rules.

You asked what stops and limits other traders use. Most traders will tell you that it depends on the pair you are trading, the time-frame you are trading, and the system (strategy) you are using. Since your strategy is very different from what most of us here are using, we probably can’t give you much help with stops and limits.

[B]Regarding strongest and weakest currency:[/B]

There are various “heat maps” which rank currencies — pretty much in real time — according to technical strength (i.e., recent price action). Those heat maps are algorithm-based; so, to that extent, they provide an objective ranking of the individual currencies.

By contrast, your attempt to rank currencies based on fundamental factors is highly subjective.

[B]Regarding technical indicators:[/B]

You asked whether “we need all these indicators”. There really is no “we” in the choice to use, or not use, indicators.

Some traders use their preferred indicators successfully. And some strategies are built around technical indicators.

Other traders make a point of sneering at any and all technical indicators, and anyone who uses them. This latter group is frequently preachy, condescending and obnoxious; and they frequently get banned from forums where civility is enforced.

You have already answered the “indicator question” for yourself: Based on [B]your[/B] current trading strategy, all [B]you[/B] need is your “fundamental analysis” and trend lines.

Clint

Clint,

Thnak you very much for your comprehensive and very interesting reply - I really appreciate it.

I will certainly look into the ‘heat maps’ you are suggesting - sounds like an interesting addition to the factors I take into consideration. Also your guidance on choosing stops and limits independantly is not something I had been previously doing, (I always had a set stop:limit ratio) so I will have a think about this.

It is strange, becuase sometimes I win 7 trades in a row, and think I have found the secret to unlinted money, only to then get taken out by a run of bad trades!

I guess thats just part of being a newbie in this game!

The first month I traded I lost my entire account, but the last few months I have been just about breaking even, so hopefully things are getting better?!

Anyway, thanks once more for your help, and good luck with all your trades!

Philip.