Smart Breakout Strategy

[Kimonz]

yes your right sorry . just need someone to take on this project, did not mean to jack this thread

If anyone here has experience with EA programming please get in touch with Dennis. I am sure there are few people out there that may be able to help. Good luck.

[Bobkat]

@Kimonz

Here is what I am looking for tomorrow on the GBP/USD on a break of Friday,s low will sell TP 15 pips. Stop loss where red line is.

Kimonz,

Thanks for starting this thread! :35:

What time of day does your new daily candle begin? Broker?

[Relativity]

This strategy would improve a lot further if some form volume analysis is involved => Keep working, looks good.

[Kimonz]

Kimonz,

Thanks for starting this thread! :35:

What time of day does your new daily candle begin? Broker?

NY close … I use FXCM UK but you can use any broker with NY close (5 candles a week)

[Kimonz]

This strategy would improve a lot further if some form volume analysis is involved => Keep working, looks good.

I am researching few things at the moment … What do you use for volume analysis?

[Relativity]

I am researching few things at the moment … What do you use for volume analysis?

See here : 301 Moved Permanently

Starting from page 62. Its a long thread thou, but I am happy to had made many important discoveries.

[pipcompounder]

Pipcompounder,

I’m very interested in your method. Would you please provide your strategy in greater detail? I’m guessing that you have a small take profit?

Much appreciated! :21:

I’ll give you the basics and you can backtest for yourself. I know the RR value isn’t great, but it has a high percentage of wins, which still make it basically profitable, and I use a bit higher lot size per trade because it does have short TP.

I place a buy stop order at +3 pips of the high of the first hour candle of the London open with 7 pip TP from the high (4 pip actual profit, this is because of spread and charts are on bid side) and SL at bottom of candle or 30 pips, whichever is smaller. I also place a sell stop order at the bottom of the candle with 7 pip TP and SL of the top of the candle or 30 pips, whichever is smaller. This is done just a few minutes before the 2nd hour candle of the London open starts. I leave both orders open until they are hit, or the next london open starts. So, it’s once per day, but on hourly TF. Usually both orders hit TP, the second one maybe a few hours later…this is pure statistics, sortof a breakout of the breakout. Backtest it for yourself. This only takes 5 minutes each morning (2:55am for me) and I don’t worry about it the rest of my very busy day.

[fxbreakz]

I’ll give you the basics and you can backtest for yourself. …

Hi pipcompounder,
so you will aim for 2x4 pips per day, on average? I assume you will leave the second order open until next day? I calculated briefly: if 3x30pips losses/ month and 18x8pips wins/ month, using maximum load position size (and 1:50 leverage, as I’m in US), it should make around 840% ROI/yr.

[pipcompounder]

Hi pipcompounder,
so you will aim for 2x4 pips per day, on average? I assume you will leave the second order open until next day? I calculated briefly: if 3x30pips losses/ month and 18x8pips wins/ month, using maximum load position size (and 1:50 leverage, as I’m in US), it should make around 840% ROI/yr.

this may seem unconventional, but it’s 4 pips for the buy, 7 pips for the sell, -spread…if both hit TP, it’s about 10 pips in the account. What you risk is your business, it could lose 3 days in a row…backtest this for yourself to get an idea of W/L ratio.

[Bobkat]

I’ll give you the basics and you can backtest for yourself. I know the RR value isn’t great, but it has a high percentage of wins, which still make it basically profitable, and I use a bit higher lot size per trade because it does have short TP.

I place a buy stop order at +3 pips of the high of the first hour candle of the London open with 7 pip TP from the high (4 pip actual profit, this is because of spread and charts are on bid side) and SL at bottom of candle or 30 pips, whichever is smaller. I also place a sell stop order at the bottom of the candle with 7 pip TP and SL of the top of the candle or 30 pips, whichever is smaller. This is done just a few minutes before the 2nd hour candle of the London open starts. I leave both orders open until they are hit, or the next london open starts. So, it’s once per day, but on hourly TF. Usually both orders hit TP, the second one maybe a few hours later…this is pure statistics, sortof a breakout of the breakout. Backtest it for yourself. This only takes 5 minutes each morning (2:55am for me) and I don’t worry about it the rest of my very busy day.

Pipcompounder,
Thank you for your reply. Yes, I’m concerned about that high risk to reward ratio, but who am I to argue with your success? If your strategy is earning you a nice profit, you are to be congratulated! How much testing have you conducted to determine that you need that 30 pip SL? If that could be cut in half, I would feel more confident about making the trades. On the other hand, if a SL30 is very rarely hit, then I could consider it more of a “doomsday” type stop.

Anything else you can convey to us?

Good trading! :60:

[Kimonz]

Hi all, GBP/USD short closed with +15 pips profit. I missed the entry for today as I was busy otherwise would have made another 15 pips for a total of 30 pips. Very promising method I am doing some more tests and analysis and will update you soon.

[Bobkat]

Hi all, GBP/USD short closed with +15 pips profit. I missed the entry for today as I was busy otherwise would have made another 15 pips for a total of 30 pips. Very promising method I am doing some more tests and analysis and will update you soon.

Kimonz,

Looking forward to learning your strategy in greater detail. Keep it coming!

[sandybeach]

I decided to start this thread to discuss a concept I have been looking at for a while. I do not have a lot of time to sit in front of the computer to trade and I find out the more I sit the more I become Subjective so I tried to find a way to spend less time and be more Objective.

A simple smart breakout strategy taking into consideration price action and swings. The idea is that price would react to the daily range in 4 ways:

1. Break the high —> possibly a WINNER
2. Break the low —> possibly a WINNER
3. Does not break either (inside bar) —> NO TRADE
4. Break both (outside bar - engulfing pattern) —> possibly a loosing trade unless played well.

The idea is to find a percentage or certain pip range to take profit at and move on. The system is based on gaining small pips a day on a regular basis (80%) and minimizing the losers (20%).

This works in pairs that post large daily ranges. It can get tricky when there is consolidation but you can then trade the channel breakout.

Kimonz

How are you getting on with this out of interest, what is your rate of success ?

It does look interesting, just looking back over the last month if going for a 15 pip TP looks good, what do you guys use for SL ?

Im thinking of 15 pip TP and SL on EURUSD, looks good on the last month, more wins than losses.

[Kimonz]

How are you getting on with this out of interest, what is your rate of success ?

It does look interesting, just looking back over the last month if going for a 15 pip TP looks good, what do you guys use for SL ?

Im thinking of 15 pip TP and SL on EURUSD, looks good on the last month, more wins than losses.

You get wins 3-4 times a week. SL is usually the previous day H or L depending on direction of trade. You need to take into consideration support and resistance and price action. This week + 45 pips gain and no losses. I prefer large ranging pairs … Check the ATR for other pairs so you can see which ones are worth trading. I will be posting more details when I have more time.

[sandybeach]

You get wins 3-4 times a week. SL is usually the previous day H or L depending on direction of trade. You need to take into consideration support and resistance and price action. This week + 45 pips gain and no losses. I prefer large ranging pairs … Check the ATR for other pairs so you can see which ones are worth trading. I will be posting more details when I have more time.

Thanks much appreciated for your time

[Kimonz]

Another +30 pips yesterday.

[Kimonz]

I do not suggest trading today as it is the end of the week and the end of the month as well. Have a great weekend guys.

[sandybeach]

I do not suggest trading today as it is the end of the week and the end of the month as well. Have a great weekend guys.

Interesting you said that, i was all setup and ready for GBPUSD, AUDUSD and EURUSD, no trades entered today.

Also does anyone trade mondays and if so do you use the daily candles from friday and sunday or thurs and fri ?

Thanks

[dennis14685]

Interesting you said that, i was all setup and ready for GBPUSD, AUDUSD and EURUSD, no trades entered today.

Also does anyone trade mondays and if so do you use the daily candles from friday and sunday or thurs and fri ?

Thanks

I trade when price crosses the 200 sma so normally i am in on monday and some of the trades i manage to open on monday and througout the week i normally close them before lunch on friday… loosing trades well those are closed on the sl.

[Bobkat]

Hi all, GBP/USD short closed with +15 pips profit. I missed the entry for today as I was busy otherwise would have made another 15 pips for a total of 30 pips. Very promising method I am doing some more tests and analysis and will update you soon.

Kimonz,

What are the basics? Are you using a breakout box? If so, what hours are you using for the box? Buffer?

I have been using the 1st hour of the London session as the breakout box with some success. But, I sure would like to know how you are solving the riddle.

Great trading!