Smart money concept

[MartialChartsFX]

On AUDNZD 15 Min Supply was in control.
On NZDUSD 15 Min Demand was in control.
NZD is going the same direction m, the direction if the pairs are affected by whether NZD is the base or the quote currency.

You were able to get catch a sell and win on NZDUSD, which may have been a little luck.

A couple of general tips:

1. Trade what you see, not what you expect to see.
2. If you can’t tell who’s in control, do nothing until control is established and made clear.
3. If price is going in a direction, believe what price is telling you until it proves otherwise.
4. After a manipulation and break of structure, the banks will have a price level that they will protect, find this level
5. Try to find where the 95% of traders would get in too early, would place a SL, or would trail their SL. Watch out for the areas. The banks are fishing for liquidity and they cast their reel where they know a lot of fish will be.
6. Wait for liquidity to be taken before entering. It’s safer to pet a tiger with a full stomach than a hungry one.

[MY7]

how much did it take for you to be profitable?
i mean i study and training for 2 years
i had no mentor, no friend until you and nothing.
everything i know ,i found out my self by watching videos ,reading books and looking at charts every day.
i do backtesting, money management ,risk management and … but in the end i failed and failed and failed.
even my family not supporting me and all of them joking me and said these markets moving randomly .
im tired of failing and sometimes i thinking maybe im not smart enough to be profitable or all these markets are spam.

[MartialChartsFX]

Forex since October/November of 2020, but stocks since 2011, so I had some market experience coming in. I will say that the two markets are very different, even if the charts look similar on a surface level.

Don’t give up. Your breakthrough and ‘aha’ moment is coming. You need to chose the right books and be very selective about the content that you watch on YouTube, since most of it is teaser content meant to sell you the full course. They will teach you just enough to be a danger to your account balance.

I can’t explain in words, how you start seeing price, but it comes with a lot of chart time. They say that you need 10,000 hours of chart time to become proficient in reading price.

Whatever you do, don’t quit. Quitting will lock you into the 95% of traders that fail.

Stay positive. Your mindset is important for your success.

[MY7]

hello first of all i wanted say thank you about thing that u said for conformation of a choch, u will watch to price break an important level.i checked out and i found lots of my SLs were for nothing.
secondly i was backtessting on AUDNZD but in somewhere my trading range got so big and after that i lost in market.

i have 2 questions.
first of all am i reading the price correctly?
and second if its so, what should we do when our trading range gets so big like the box i marked

[MartialChartsFX]

Looking through this thread again, about FRVP, it is a good tool to identify areas of value literally and the point of control. I use it for confluence of zones that I pick out, I don’t let the tool pick the zones for me. I use the high and low values of the nodes to identify confluence.

[MartialChartsFX]

@MY7

Be selective in your structure. First some feedback:

This how I would interpret the structure, BOS, CHoCH, SMS, and Stop Hunt

Regarding the trading range that you have in the box, it’s not a large at least not larger than the previous range.

The market range is not finalized until it has valid retracement (in my opinion).
You are reading price but I don’t think you have criteria for qualifying or disqualifying structural points in the market, which is leading you to pick structure that can be ignored. I guess you have to get used to tuning out the noise. A zig zag may help if you have the right settings, but it’s better to draw your own zig zag based on market structure rules.

[MY7]

hello
so after u said that i consider some market noice as external structure ,and with help of zig zag i changed my point of view about market.
for example i was reading the market like this before and i was looking for short position. something like this.

but now im reading price like this and looking for long position.

am i right now?

[MartialChartsFX]

It’s a little more complex than that. Let’s split price going up to left of the dashed line and going down to the right of the dashed line.
I mostly agree with the right side of your upper chart.
The left side of your lower chart is better than the left side of the upper chart.

I’m looking at the behavior of Demand on the way up and it is failing, not getting violated but not convincingly breaking structure.

On the right of the dashed line, Supply is violating all the Demand zones and has a reason to violate the lowest Demand zone where your buy setup is.

You didn’t mark the minor BOS, which is good. I mark it to show that it’s minor because it’s internal to both the retracement and the market range, so I wouldn’t count it as a BOS worth using.

Looking at the Daily time frame, price has broken the trendline

[MartialChartsFX]

The final zone did in fact get violated

[MY7]

that correct.beside there wasnt any valid choch or breaking any strong demand in 15min.
last week i managed to open up 2 positions.
this one in GBPJPY.

which is still open but i moved my SL to entry point.

and also in EURGBP

which is i stopped that by 1 point

any thoughts?

[MartialChartsFX]

Looking at EURGBP M15, I would have my zones a little different. I would consider this buy to be counter trend on the 15 Minute considering that Supply is in control here.

[MY7]

hello.hope u doing well.
i have a quastion.i never asked u before if u are using PD array or not.
for example in here.

can we use purple boxes for our POI or we must wait, until blue boxes?

[MartialChartsFX]

I don’t use PD Arrays, that’s an ICT concept, which I generally don’t follow.

I do agree with premium and discount pricing. The purple area would be considered discount and the blie area is premium.

You would want to buy at a discount and sell at a premium. So the blue area should be a no-buy zone and the purple area should be a no-sell zone. This no-entry philosophy applies for entries not holding existing trades that have crossed from premium to discount and vice versa.

Hope that helps

[MY7]

hello .hope u doing well
can u please take a look at AUDNZD for me and say which direction should we looking for position.
its very unclear for me.

[tommor]

If you’re an expert trader and are good at trading ranges and transient moves this could be a good candidate. If you’re inexperienced or your strategy is based on trend-following this is a poor candidate.

[arveN]

Hello @MY7,
I just had a conversation about AUDNZD
please check:

Dipping my toes into AUDNZD

Hello @ria_rose, hope you are doing well. I agree with @SrAaron. I need to know more about your strategy. I read this but wasn’t very informative in my opinion. By the way, I’d like some more information to see in which specific direction you need guidance. I’m not saying or pretending that I’m a super guru or I have the holy grail, but I can assure you using ICT concepts I found consistency and profitability. So please, share more info with us Last but not least regarding …

about that:

@MY7

can u please take a look at AUDNZD for me and say which direction should we looking for position.

when you have doubts about the direction always zoom out a TF and check for swing lows and swing highs

Weekly:

TradingView Chart

Bullish.

Daily:

TradingView Chart

Bullish.

From the moment you make the decision to use SMC strategy, you have to check ICT channel on YouTube.
Especially the Core content.
Be safe.

[MY7]

thank you very much.it was helpful

[MartialChartsFX]

Looking at AUDNZD on the Daily, it really has been ranging consistently for about 9 years.

To echo what Tommor said, this would be good for trading support and resistance.

If you compare AUD to NZD by using USD as a common comparator in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs, you’ll see that they have roughly the same strength against USD. This similar strength translates into AUD and NZD being neutral against each other, or in other words ranging.

For me I would wait for confirmation of a reversal at support or resistance and then go to a lower time frame to enter on a pull back while price travels across the range. There are trends on the lower time frame that can be taken advantage of. On the 1 Hour, after confirmation and price leaves resistance, There is a swing trade opportunity

Back on the Daily, it looks like this:

If you decide to trade ranges, I would avoid entering in the middle of this range and stick to buying at discount/support and selling at premium/resistance.

[MY7]

hello how are u?
hope u doing well.
since you changed my mind about market direction and structure there was a significant chenge in my trading style and my loss rate dropped impressively and i really appreciate it .
but there is a problem. i lost lots of my trades for absolute nothing. for exp the trade didnt open cause of 10 pips then hit the tp,i got stopped out beucase of 5 pips then hit tp,i missed the my tp cause of 7 pips,my stopped has been hunt then i lose a easy 7 R/R.and things like this.
do u have any solution in your mind?

[MartialChartsFX]

Not sure if I understand you, but it sounds like an issue of where you are placing your TP and SL. There may be an issue of where AND when you are getting into a trade. Are you waiting for a liquidity to be engineered and a Stop Hunt before entering?