A traditional principle for identifying pull-backs in an uptrend is to count three bearish consecutive candles -
thx. it was a very helpful principle .
There can only be a retracement if there is a trend, this wouldn’t qualify as a trend for me.
In any case, H1 is too much noise for me, I only take these sorts of trades on D1.
I would say though that it can happen that the series of three candles with lower highs and lower lows are not entirely consecutive, inside bars can be ignored, but I still look for three LH+LL bars in a short total time-span following the swing high.
Why should it sell in the first place? GBP fundamental is quite good these few days in my opinion. It’s kind of mixed but overall still good I would say compare to the others. I’ve been buy buy buy GBP pairs lately. It was good. But I would avoid JPY group for a while just in case the BOJ intervention is really coming. You must learn to control your risk first before you can make any money. Otherwise, it would be a sudden death game.
As for the CHOCH you drew on the chart, I would say the correct one is if it breaches around 180.000 price. Then only I would say it’s a confirmed CHOCH. The one you drew, the buyer is still in control. The seller didn’t really break anything yet. But, remember, to me, the point of us doing technical analysis is that hopefully the price we get is the best bargain we could get at that moment. That’s it. The rest still have to rely on fundamentals, money managment, human logic and the nature of doing any business. Trader = Businessman ( you need to bargain to the best price of the product so that you could sell it with some margin.)
yeah that’s for sure that the money management and risk management are the most important things in these markets but my problem is that sometimes i cant find right POIs.
i have a question.
sometimes i see some guys using fixed range volume profile in SMC and i did some research and i couldn’t find anything helpful about what they do with it and how to use it
do you know something about it?
Not a thing. I’ve never heard of fixed range volume profile.
hello. hope you have a nice day
so i back tested my strategy for all pairs since Jan 22 till now and i also wrote excel journal for all positions that i opened .can i share the information’s with you and see if you have any suggestion for me?
Sure, sharing is caring
ty.
i was looking for OBs that made an imbalance and also didn’t mitigated before in a trend in 4h time frame
then i switch to 15 min time frame and waiting for a strong choch for placing my orders
i opened up 178 positions in total.
i stopped out for 85 times(loss rate=47.7%)
and 69 of them hit tp at minimum R/R 2(38.8%)
and 24 of the end up in breakeven
the total R/R that i gained was 161
my best pairs was pairs that in one side is AUD
the worst pairs was the ones that is CHF in one side so i decided i don’t take trades on them in future.
there is something that shocked me a lot and i didn’t expect it is that i also couldn’t get a good result on these high volume pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP and i don’t know why and hoping u have an answer for that.
and i also not sure if these number of positions are enough for about 1.5 year or not
and also my max number of SL in a row was 5.
let me know if u want other informations
oh and also i didnt took any trades, 5 hours before days that they were economic news on it .
First let me say that order blocks are not the holy grail. They do have a high failure rate but often excellent reward to risk ratio. The big wins make up for the frequent losses as long as risk management is followed strictly. I don’t trade order blocks per say, rather supply and demand, which may be semantics depending on who you ask.
AUDUSD can be a smooth pair to trade. I rarely ever look at any pair that has CHF in it, so I can’t weigh in on the Franc.
EURGBP is a very ranging pair
Compared to GBPUSD
You should be okay EURUSD and GBPUSD when they start trending. What hours of the day did you take most of your EURUSD and GBPUSD trades? I would be careful right before London open and after 12 noon NY time.
You may need to be more discriminating in your POI selection. Check your failed order blocks and see if there was another POI that would give price a reason to violate your selected POI. That would be the first thing I would investigate.
i back tested EURUSD and GBPUSD again and i found something interesting .
sometimes when my trading range was so big or small i got lost in market so when i should looked for example long position i was looking for short.
do you know any good resources such as book or anything for some advanced market structure ?
Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading by Larry Williams.
Not solely market structure but it does touch on it.
thx.and lastly was my number of positions enough for about 1.5 years?
When I backtest, I put more weight on the sample size than the time period. I would look for ‘X’ number of trades regardless of the start and end dates.
hello how are u??
yesterday i opened up 2 positions and i got stopped out on both and i have no idea what happened.
first one was on AUDNZD
Looking at this on the Daily chart. It appears as though you are attempting to trade in a ranging market
On the 4 Hour chart, price is still within a range
Looking a little closer on the 4 Hour, this is how I would read the structure within the range (this is risky because price is still in a range)
On the 15 Minute it gets really simple…Supply is in control, Demand is not in control. I would look for more than breaking a previous lower high on the 15 Min to validate a change of character. I would look for Demand to provably be in control or use the break of a more structural high (possibly from a higher time frame) as validation.
If you framed this trade based on the supply zone, you would have a perfect OTE fib setup
Looking at the Supply zone just before your entry, it further proves that Demand has not taken control yet.
That’s just what I see at a glance. Today was a heavy economic news day so that may have been a factor as well.
