Some of my thoughts + Trading System

elang · February 8, 2007, 7:16am

Ok 61.8% is out but we don’t have a confirmed break yet.

If you wan’t to play it safe and smart terminate your shorts here considering you entered around the 9680-90 area.

I shorted at .9680 but i woun’t square untill i know it woun’t go down any further and i will be relying mainly on candle stick patterns and my MAs to determine that.

If the price closed above .9620 it will start consolidating over 61.8 i feel and that is when i will terminate, as during a consolidation the breakout may be Bullish or Bearish.

Either way, having gone down this far, i think we will test the Trendline around 75%, unless we have a lot of bulls live and ready to fight back, but after the BOE rate decision and ECB no-raise sentiment it doesn’t seem probable.

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 8, 2007, 7:39am

CHART UPDATE

ECB: Previous 3.5 / Current 3.5 (No change Duurh)

Next Downside targets are trendline at ~ .9584

I will be closing my position there for the day.

UPDATE: closed out at 90+ pips.
I am a happy man.

I will only short if i see hood bearish action under the trend line.

SET YOUR STOP LOSSES!

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 8, 2007, 8:17am

Hello guys,

We have about 90 minutes left to the close of the current H4 candle the closer we get to the close the more of a fight the bulls will put up to try and keep the candle close above the trend line, the bears will be attempting the opposite.

If the H4 candles closes below the trend line and we see good bearish candles on the lower time frames close aswell it will be a good signal to short.

Logical Targets are:

100% .9535 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

The declining movement strength is slowing down you will notice that by the ever more oftenly occuring corrections on the smaller time frames, on par to what we had before: big moves, small corrections… now its small moves almost equal correction.

If you haven’t terminated your short yet you must be one hell of a cowboy/girl, i recommend you do so as soon as you start noticing Higher Lows.

Remember if the movement is dominated by bears, it is not acceptable to have Higher Lows, talk less of Higher Highs.

On the Upside:
Bulls will need to take the price over .9657 (38.2%) to earn any authority, for now any bullish movement we see will be at the mercy of the bears. They are holding the bulls on a leash for now.

Targets: .9691 > .9727 > .9732

Keep it safe guys.

Regards
E. Lang

elang · February 8, 2007, 8:37am

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pwegner · February 8, 2007, 11:37am

Elang

What is skypecast and how do we hook up?

Thank You,
Paul

elang · February 8, 2007, 2:13pm

Basically someone needs to host it, and others join in.

https://skypecasts.skype.com/skypecasts/home

Can’t talk much right now, at work.

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 2:42am

Good morning guys,

Sorry for not posting the first attached image which specifies where you should have shorted today, but the boss was hovering like a hawk.

This is where you should have shorted today. (image 1)

Yesterdays L: .9541 H: .9727 M: .9634

As i recommended yesterday, short again only after we see good bear action under the trend line.

Price action after the break yesterday, held beautifully under the trend line and moves lower today.

You should have shorted around .9570

Targets on the downside: .9541 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

When we hit .9480 we may have a bounce, when this happens draw a fib with 100% .9600 and probable 0% .9480

For now, you can pretty much accept that the bulls are kissing ass.
It’s downhill from here onwars if we break .9480 decisively.

All you need to do is redraw your fibs on every main correction on M15/M30.

Only price action over .9600 can get bulls back in action, but we’d need Martians to zap the statue of liberty for that to happen right now anyway.

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 2:54am

[B]GBP/USD[/B]

Cable’s steep fall from 1.9731 resumed in early European session today . Break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed for a retest of 1.9480 low first. Break will confirm and bring further weakness towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Touching 1.9603 resistance will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

elang · February 9, 2007, 6:49am

If you are not short yet, u may do so under .9454

If you have not set your SL to b\e yet you might as well.

I recommend you place your SL around or over .9600 if you are not moving to b/e yet.

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 7:29am

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Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 7:45am

The Blue decending trendline is what will be maintaining the composure of this bearish move.

The Red lines are support zones or break low points, which we will be using for Short Entry and Position Adding.

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 8:30am

The price correction reached 25% and bounced off for now.
It will need to break the short term trend line shown in Red to continue the decline.

Targets on the downside: .9457 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 9, 2007, 9:36am

The H4 candle is closing in about 14 minutes, so i guess that is why the bulls are having such a fuss about it, they will attempt to keep the close over .9480 to try and show superiority. They will try to make Higher Highs and Higher Lows.

The bears need to make sure that doesn’t happen and to keep the close on H4 below .9480. They will try to make Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Updated the trend lines a tad on the attached chart.

The price correction reached 25% and bounced off for now.
It will need to break the short term trend line shown in Red to continue the decline.

Targets on the downside: .9457 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

Regards,
E. Lang

Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.
Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; § 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694;

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance.

Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517.

Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

elang · February 10, 2007, 7:07am

Hello everyone,

Hope you’re all doing well and enjoying the weekend, feet kicked up with a beverage in hand, indulging the modest delight of environmental silence far…far away from the busy and exhausting every day office chores and responsibilities.

I love weekends, i don’t know why. I just love relaxing, lazying about… doing practically nothing, i feel like a little kid who told a white lie and managed to slip by and evade any and all responsibility in the world, entirely self satisfied in himself and with no sense or regret or conciousness… just floating away on a fluffy pinky-white cloud of euphoria, saturated in utter lazyness

I love laying on my couch in a pair of shorts, fingers clinched behing my head, with the courtains retracted, stretching like a cat and once in a while giving out a squeecky sound in turn with a vague curiosity of the location of its origin, just soaking up the warmth of the sun.

I don’t know why im writing this, just thought i should.

I just wanna say, they life can be very hard, its like a big grinder and everyone that goes through it, gets chipped during the journey, sometimes loosing more of themselves than they have wanted to or imagined having needed to sacrifice to get to the other end and reach the exit.

Individuality is one of the most difficult things to retain nowadays. The mass of interactivity encountered on a daily basis with so many vividly different things and people, makes it increasingly problematic for us to retain the naturaly unadulterated colours of our presonality and self, in tact and whole.

I just want to say, know who you are. Spend more time understanding yourself so you can appreciate what you really are, because life is short.

Choose your friends carefully, Don’t suck up to anyone.

Socialize with people who want to have you there, not just who don’t mind.

Befriend only those who you consider no less than yourselves.

Don’t be ashamed to stand alone. People will aknowledge and appreciate the respect and trust you have towards your own ability, self and existence.

Find someone to love and never let them go.

Life is like the FX, i’ts simple, don’t complicate it or you woun’t ever see the benefit.

Regards,
E. Lang

sa31fh · February 10, 2007, 6:28pm

Hey elang,

I’m 21 yrs old myself and just getting into the Forex market. Just wondering. You said you had financial problems when you started. How much capital did you start with in Forex?

elang · February 11, 2007, 4:38am

Started with $USD 250 when i was 18 - blew it all (1 month into Forex)

Told myself i wouldn’t trade live again, till i started profiting properly.

Now that i look back it’s foolish that i wud have even thought about trading back then with that 250, knowing now that i hardly knew anything then about trading, funny as it seems, i made good money in a lot of my trades, before actualy loosing the account. It was all luck though and that doesn’t count in this game. I had never heard the term “money management” then. Nor, fibonnaci, nor EMAs, nor trendlines, nor anything, in fact i have no idea how i even traded.

After nearly 2 years from then i took a bank loan for 5k.

Good luck!

Regards,
E. Lang

sa31fh · February 11, 2007, 11:16am

Haha. I had some wild notions about getting rich on forex myself. But at least I had the good sense to not put any money in until I had educated myself to some degree and practiced for a few months on a demo account.

I plan to start off with 500 dollars and follow a very conservative track (and if I follow the trading system you outlined in this thread). Would you say thats a reasonable start? I ask this since the tutorial on this site repeatedly tells you NOT to start with anything below a 1000. Has me really double minded.

elang · February 12, 2007, 3:23am

Good morning guys,

I can’t write much now, but i want you to take a look at the charts. (attached too)

I will update later.

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD - 1

Cable’s fall from 1.9731 was contained at 1.9457 and continues to recover today. Break of 1.9542 support turned resistance indicate an intraday low is formed and further consolidation will continue, but upside is expected to be limited by 1.9600 resistance and bring another fall. Below 1.9457 will indicate decline has resumed for next downside target of 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9574) was taken out, confirming that the rally from 1.8517 has already completed at 1.9913. Hence, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 should still be in force. Also, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed. Focus is now on 1.9237/61 cluster support.

Strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 cluster support will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) before having a medium term reversal.

However, sustained break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

2

The sterling pound dropped down last time since it couldn’t breach up the 1.6920s support level. this time the pound is restricted between 1.9490s support level and 1.960s resistance level. Hence the main trend today is neutral.
The general trend is up as far as 1.8850and 1.8460 remain intact, targets will be at 1.9858 and 2.0000.
The key resistance at 1.9850 and the key support at 1.8960.
Support: 1.9538, 1.9494, 1.9471, 1.9440, 1.9411
Resistance: 1.9557, 1.9591, 1.9623, 1.9654, 1.9686

3

This pair has tipped the support level 1.9470 last weekend bouncing back from the lower band of the daily Bollinger bends, with low volatility and no special market movers traders expect the range to be persistent in today’s trading session with minor gains from the GBP.

Comment: Dipping below 1.9500 but managing to recover this morning. These merely underlines the difficulty we are having at these historically very high levels but the tone is well bid nevertheless. Over the coming week we favour yet another upside test of 1.9700/1.9750.
Strategy: Buy at 1.9550; stop well below 1.9450. Short term target 1.9700/1.9750.

elang · February 12, 2007, 6:14am

How you could have determined the price was going to reverse at 75% of .9457 to .9600 using the gap.

We have three types of gaps.

Breakaway gaps
Midway gaps
Exhaustion gaps

Breakaway gaps occur at the near end of a trend. It indicates the reversal and initiation of a new trend in the oposite direction.

Midway gaps occur in the midle of a movement. They indicate the midpoint of a movement, the approximate 50%. (Using this information you could have eyed an approximate termination of the correction started at .9457 around the 75% of .9457 to .9600 using the gap.

Exhaustion gaps occur after rappid rallies. The price simply looses steam and reversals and position terminations happen so massly that there is a price jump/gap.

You will notice the gap, met support exactly on top of the falling trend line, which is the same area it is currently testing support now.

We will need a good break of the .9450 area to reach below the trend line and continue on downwards to targets like .9312 > .9260

I am a little over 100 pips Live in unrealized profit from the short i entered last week, not forgetting the other 100 pips bagged last week aswell. It is all recorded here.

I didnt close my position at the correction as technicals said the price was coming back down, so i held throughout the weekend, the gap, the correction etc.

My bias is pretty much short for the moment.

If you werent short already from last week and you only got in on the correctional tip today, i recommend you set a stop around .9600.

Thats all for now folks.
Regards,
E. Lang

elang · February 12, 2007, 7:22am

I’ve terminated my short taking in a profit any trader would be happy with.

I will be shorting again only if i see good closing action under the falling trend line.

If .9566 (100%) is taken out, we will have a bullish move in play and confirmed with a HH otherwise it is still bearish.

The correction / bounce of trendline may be limited @ .9487 ~ 38.2% & Yesterdays LOW or it could go further up to 50% > 61.8 etc.

You will notice ive drawn a lot of red lines and one blue i think.
The blue line represents the overall trend. A Break of this line would mean things have gone bullish.

Since ive determined that were bearish, i look only for short entries so i draw supports visualized in red at every chance i get to pick out short entry or position adding points.

Some you will notice break the red line, others fake a break and reverse and others don’t break them at all.

See attached chart.

Regards,
E. Lang