Most of the traders say luck does not matter in forex. But I don’t agree fully upon this. I think we need luck on our side. Even if we have perfect knowledge and strategies, we can lose as the trends may go down soon against us. That is why we need good luck along with good execution, plans and strategies to make big wins.
If you keep saying that luck is needed in trading, it means that you are gambling. Only gambling is need luck, but not in Forex. As trading is only need a skills not luck.
Well, firstly, think about why price moves. We know why price moves, because of large orders being placed, big money moves the market. Now compare that to playing roulette, we don’t know why it landed on that number, it was purely by chance. Let’s say you place your bet on 20, will the ball land on 20? We don’t know, but if it does, well you’re one lucky son of a gun :P.
Luck does not move price, bulls and bears move price, learn to read the movement of price, how it reacts around certain levels and you will learn to see where the market movers are placing their orders.
Besides, if all else fails, forex is still giving better odds than any game at a casino, what else offers 50/50 probabilities? Price goes up or it goes down :).
Yes and no. Depends on what perspective you’re taking.
Yes, if you’re looking at one trade. I had a EUR trade running the other day and moving nicely into profit. Then some Euro Finance Minister or somebody opened their fat gob about interest rates, shot the Euro in the wrong direction and stopped me out. Totally unpredictable. Bad luck.
No, if you remember that one trade (or ten or even a hundred) means absolutely nothing in the big picture. That’s the thousand upon thousand of trades you’ll take over the course of your lifetime. If you’re applying your strategy consistently and applying rock-solid money management every step of the way, luck won’t come into it.
Think of it like a dice that’s very slightly weighted to land on the 6. If you consistently bet on 6 coming up, you’ll lose loads and loads of times. But if you maintain that strategy over thousands of rolls, you can be absolutely certain that you’ll win in the long run.
if u trade short term wise, luck is very important factor
if you thinking about long term, with odds of 51% in the long run you’ll be making money considering risk+reward is equal
51% is only 1% edge but 1% is a lot if u trade millions of trades!
casinos have edges in their favor in the long run with a lil above 50% but less than 60% to sell you something called hope
they let you win in the short term, but in the long run they are always making money!
luck is necessary when you want to make a killing right now and here!
Luck is only important in the short-term. Executing a system in a long-term perspective will give results that won’t be influenced by luck.
What, exactly, is luck?
You guys are talking about it as if it’s something that exists, so I want to know.
The market disproves superstition. (the free market)
Best to look at it as a game of probabilities. I regularly have a punt on the horses (I guess most would consider this gambling). For a simple example we will use a 2 horse race. Both horses are the same age and breed. They both have the same trainer. Horse A has won over the distance the two horses are about to race, while Horse B has not won at that distance. Assuming they have only had 1 start each and it was against each other last time. We can make an educated guess (yes guess, of outcome) that Horse A should win again.
I think you mixed up luck with variance
What about the jockeys? A lot of people tend to underestimate the skill in being a jockey
It would be more appropriate to say you need chance, then luck.
Given enough chances one could theoretically develop an edge in Forex to derive a profit.
Chance in and of itself is not the only element. There are games of chance where the odds will always be against you. That is when luck comes into play. Skill didn’t allow me to win at a slot machine. Luck allowed for that. Given enough chances, I would ultimately lose.
The edge is the key ingredient. Without it, you are only relying on luck amongst your chances.
This week I stayed in a trade by one pip, the trade turned good but I viewed the trade as lucky - my SL anaylsis should never have been so poor that it came to within a pip - so yes luck can be helpful but I never want to rely on it.
It was just a simple example, there are that many variables that you could throw in. What if Horse A was overtrained in the last few days, knowing this information you could give Horse B a higher probabiltiy of winning. So we can assume things happen for a reason. Luck doesn’t play any part in the outcome.