[quote=“captgrumpy, post:20, topic:122057”]
Hello Clint–First off I want to thank you and simple siman for your interest in my proposed plan and all the work you have put into it. [/quote]
Thank you, but I actually deleted all my previous posts once I noticed that Clint was starting to do a major test on this and I didn’t want to dilute his work here. My own interest here arises because it is very similar in principle to what I have already been doing live for many years but on short term charts (mainly capital building, not income earning). But now my interest is migrating to daily or longer term on a more investment type basis and I recognised that this approach you have been developing does have potential. But since I would only be adding it to my own method, it would only be a hybrid version of yours and hence my decision to stay out and not pollute Clint’s work with the pure “real thing”.
It is actually quite interesting (for me) to follow this. Clint has a realised loss of -70.7 pips but a nice unrealised profit currently of +378 pips. I have taken 3 trades and have a realised profit (live) of +114 pips but no positions open! My own approach here is to wait until there is some “symbiosis” between the Daily and the 3 hour charts and then trade whilst the 3 hour is still in synch with the daily. The profit should/would have been more because the JPY move was already some days old before I started looking at this and I only caught the tail end of it. The CAD worked well and should still be open but I closed it because it is an oil-based currency and today is a big OPEC meeting day and this was actually my first trade ever with CAD and it is a new methodogy! I am, by nature, a very cautious and patient trader!!! (the third trade was a targetted short on EURGBP).
The interesting background here is how much relevance is there concerning the time of year. This method is designed to get the most juice out of extended moves, but does also provide opportunities to grab more modest gains after each signal. So I am interested here to see how well this performs across Clint’s range of pairs during December. (the summer months would be the other seasonal period of quiet and/or erratic movements)
May I be the first to sincerely congratulate you on entering such a venture at such an honourable stage in your life! And for having absorbed, and so intelligently processed, so much experience and theory. You set a fine example to others here! Your conclusion here has been repeated many times on BP that ultimately it is best to develop one’s own tailor-made trading plan.
Once again, IMHO, you have arrived at precisely the right answer here. Whilst Fundamental Analysis is concerned with using current data to predict future direction, Technical Analysis is only concerned with identifying what the majority of all active participants are actually doing right now and jumping on the same train to see how far it might go.
This is a really radical deviation from the original plan and I must confess I am not very optimistic about using a 2-period MA of any kind (I won’t be changing my approach to test this). I hope very much that Clint will continue on the original plan with the 5-LWMA otherwise the work done so far is meaningless. But I keep an open mind and am always happy to be proved wrong. 
This is also, IMHO, a very important point. As I have said previously, I don’t, in principle, like the idea of automatic Stop-And-Reverse (SAR). If one takes a lot of time looking for valid original entries which fulfill defined criteria, why would one then take a reverse entry without the same degree of consideration? I also prefer the approach to “Stop”, then evaluate, then “Start”. One important and major consideration here is the underlying strength of the prevailing trend. A signal can often occur in the opposite direction whenever there is a correction rather than just a “dip” and then it is best either to wait for a re-entry signal or set a close target point of say 30-50 pips or to a S/R level etc rather than just waiting for a reversal signal. The reason being that when a strong trend does continue it is often with a very strong move on the day which would wipe out profits before the end-day signal can be given.
I think this is also a very revelant and sensible point. I have also recognised that a “normal” type stop is not much use when trading daily charts as “normally” the market reversals close the position before the stop would get hit. But in FX there is always sense in setting a “disaster” or “air bag” stop that limits the damage in the event of a seriously big and sudden move occuring - as they sometimes do.
Sorry for writing so much, but I wanted to answer your points. I will delete this post as well in a few days, after I have assumed that you have read it, so that Clint’s continuity does not get overly distracted.
S_S
