Good day fellow traders! Hope you’re all doing well! 
Gold at an inflection point - is it going parabolic?
Gold will need to make a decision and soon about whether it’s going parabolic now or later.
Make no mistake that gold is in a long term uptrend with very strong momentum and there will eventually be a parabolic phase. The question is whether it already is in the parabolic phase or do we need to wait for an intermediate term move down first before going parabolic.
The chart below shows 2 different potential paths. The current intermediate up trend has run twice as long as the statistical average telling us it’s in a strong run, but it’s now decision time.
If it takes the blue path and breaks below the blue support level, then expect an intermediate term move down before going parabolic. If price takes the yellow path and breaks through the yellow resistance level then it’s time to buckle up.
A sure sign would be to see silver take the lead and slingshot past gold. Silver moves much faster and more dynamically than gold, but gold is the decision maker, there is no bull trend in silver unless gold says so. 
Capital outflow from Semiconductors and Tech to fuel commodities bull
As I mentioned at the beginning of the thread, in order for precious metals and commodities in general to move much higher it needs an influx of capital. And I believe it will come from the semiconductor and technology sectors, both of which are looking very ripe for rolling over.
Please refer to the latest update of the SOXX weekly chart earlier in the thread illustrating the head and shoulders pattern that has been forming this year. Then look at the daily chart below:
I’m expecting the intermediate term yellow SMA to cross below the long term blue SMA this week. That will be a confirmation of a new long term bear market.
While Semiconductors are on the verge of a long term bear market, tech stocks not far behind being on the verge of an intermediate term downtrend with a high probability of it cascading into a long term bear market.
And once semiconductors and tech stocks go, then I expect the broader equity indices across the globe to follow, please refer to these charts in earlier updates.
The real panic selling will occur once the banks go, this I believe will cause panic buying in hard assets as investors look to get out of financial assets and depreciating fiat.
First Japanese banks, which looked like they were going to implode with the JPY carry trade unwind. It wouldn’t surprise me if the current run up was an official BoJ intervention to buy the banks a little more time to get their balance sheets in order.
The European banks look very similar to the tech stocks in that they are on the verge of heading into an intermediate term downtrend which with high probability cascade into a long term bear market:
Another interesting week ahead 