Happy Saturday afternoon, everyone! 
I’m constantly surprised by how often mainstream media, financial analysts, and economic “experts” overlook the obvious. But why let facts get in the way of a compelling story? Unfortunately, our information space is flooded with oversimplified narratives designed more to capture our attention than to genuinely inform us.
In reality, things are far more nuanced, complex, and—frankly—more interesting.
Tariffs are not the cause of the current crisis; they’re a symptom. The elephant in the room, which most seem unwilling to address openly, is the U.S. fiscal crisis. Once you start viewing recent developments through the lens of fiscal dominance, everything becomes very clear.
Attempting to decode political motives is a huge waste of time. It’s far more efficient—and accurate—to focus on how investors and markets are actually positioning themselves. After all, money speaks louder (and more honestly) than words.
Consider the following:
Demand for U.S. Treasuries has collapsed.
Simply put, very few investors can—or want—to lend money to the U.S. government right now.
Persistently high long-end Treasury yields confirm two key insights:
- Reduced investor appetite for U.S. debt.
- Investors are pricing in rising inflation / stagflation and growing credit risk.
Let’s take a closer look at long-end yields 
The US20Y looks to be breaking higher after printing a yearly cycle bottom, while T-bonds simultaneously appear to have made a yearly cycle top. Notice this past week’s volatility (last candle / bar) —this extreme volatility is far from normal and is a major red flag for what’s to come. The Fed should be very nervous at the moment.
The parabolic rise in gold prices further signals a severe breakdown in the global monetary system.
Look at this week’s massive move which closed very near the high => bullish momentum is accelerating.
Typically, countries recycle their surplus USD back into Treasuries during times of uncertainty. However, escalating tariffs, trade wars, and the recent weaponization of the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets virtually ended this decades-old arrangement. As a result, surplus dollars (along with capital rotated out of riskier assets) are increasingly finding their way into gold, silver, commodities, energy and other currencies as safer alternatives.
An Overlooked Reality:
The U.S. became the wealthiest country in history largely thanks to the global USD monetary system. America could literally create dollars from thin air to purchase tangible, valuable assets—oil, gold, energy, manufactured goods, and services—from other countries that had to expend real resources and labor to produce them. Those same countries, in turn, recycled their USD earnings by lending them back to the U.S. government through Treasury purchases, effectively financing America’s deficits at relatively low interest rates.
Adding insult to injury, if these countries needed to borrow U.S. dollars themselves, they could only do so at significantly higher interest rates than the U.S. government. Essentially, America exported its inflation, compelling other countries to work harder, improve efficiency, and practice stricter budget discipline than the U.S. itself.
Sadly, most Americans may never fully understand how uniquely advantageous and beneficial this arrangement was—or how the rest of the world might have willingly continued it had the U.S. not abused this privileged position.
Unfortunately, the painful unraveling we’re witnessing in real time now will be a harsh education in economic reality.
, it’s not just US govt bonds getting dumped, let’s look at US Muni and Junk bonds.
