Pattern: Butterfly
Entry: 85.313
Stop Loss: 85.393
Target: 85.138
I think I need to wait for a conformation on the timeframe I trade not on the one’s below it.
One day I will master this…
-8 Pips
Been a while for a while working on fine tuning my way to pick reversals, I will update with a full post soon.
Pattern: Cypher
Entry: 88.174
Stop Loss: 88.224
Target: 88.114
Sure this trade lost but, I could care less about that. My revised strategy has helped me pinpoint my exact reversal points. I AM SO EXCITED to see what lies ahead!! This trade however was a loss due to my late entry into the trade, this caused my stop loss to be very tight and my risk to reward to be atrocious. Price did follow through and hit profit target. I will get this down…
- 5 Pips
First, I’ve been trading on a live account for almost two months. Every loss that I take comes out of hours I spent grueling at a 9-5. But, I also know that I am getting closer and closer day by day toward the life I envisioned for myself when I first started trading. Big plans this coming year…
Pattern: Shark
Entry: 0.68944
Stop Loss: 0.6884
Target: 0.691
I got into this trade with good execution, my position size was good, my entry price was good, and price moved from the PRZ quickly. I closed this position at break even because at the halfway point to target profit , I always put my stop at breakeven. I had a candle spike down and trigger my stop loss at breakeven. The trade went onto reach target profit.
- 0 Pips
Lesson: I need to wait a little while longer until I can put my stop loss at breakeven.
Pair: USD/JPY
Pattern: Shark
Entry: 114.06
Target: 114.53
Stop Loss: 113.945
I got into this trade at the perfect time, followed my rules, and placed my stop loss at breakeven according to my rules. I got stopped out at breakeven, sometimes that is just how harmonics work…
- 1 Pip
Been awhile since I posted but, I haven’t given up! I realized that I’ve spent too much time going from one indicator to the next to try to confirm if the pattern will follow through to the target profit. There will be no more indicators used (expect RSI), just the sheer power of my mind and my experiences!
Pair: EUR/JPY
Pattern: Gartley
Entry: 121. 952
Exit: 112.042
Target: 121.752
I took this trade a little early but, lesson learnt! This trade tested the 78.6% level then bounced off. I moved my stop loss to 121.993 as trade headed toward target profit. But, before reaching the 38.2% level was achieved, price sparked back up and through the point where I consider the pattern invalid. I followed all my rules but, selling pressure was just not enough.
- 4 Pips
Pattern: Gartley
Entry: 0.76164
Target: 0.76294
Stop Loss: 0.76104
I waited until price tested the whole PRZ. I followed all my rules but, was a tad bit late to entry because I was scared, I admit. That is one thing I have to work on, fear, I shouldn’t be afraid of the trade. I followed all my rules for exiting as price went toward my direction. I did exit on the test of boundary which I should’ve waited for it to close below it. I manually exited this trade.
- 2 Pips
UPDATE: Price retested the PRZ and went to target profit. I need to wait for the close of the candle.
Pattern: Gartley
Entry: 81.92, 81.91
Target: 82.03
Stop Loss: 81.84, 81.83
Here’s something I learned on this trade. First, the reason why the pattern failed was because the B point was not the beginning of the biggest retracement. Also, as I actively manage the trade, I will have to scale from the bottom to the top and ALWAYS be managing my trade!
-10 Pips (Both Trades Total)
I have been away for a while. I stopped trading and went out and learned. Learned everything I could: how to execute, when to execute, when the pattern fails, how price should I react. I have done as much learning as possible now, my learning continuing forward will be only something experience can teach me. I have spent a full year with harmonic patterns and it is now time to reap the benefits of my chosen trading strategy. I can not wait to see what the road for me is like and I am so ready to kill it!
Pattern: Butterfly
Timeframe: 5 Minute
Reversal: Type 1
Entry: 84.86
Target: 84.53
Stop Loss: 84.91
I followed all my rules on this trade. Waited for price bar to close on right timeframe, zoomed into the lower time frame and waited until I got my sell trigger. Price initially went my way following a downward trend line but, didn’t make it out of the PRZ before violating the trend line. Once that happened price went up and triggered my stop loss. Price then went on climbing, this pattern was a reaction pattern.
I am not mad that this pattern failed at all. Why get mad when it was a failed pattern? I have some ideas that may help me develop a strategy that will help me take the opposite side of the trade when stuff like this happens. I will not stress myself out anymore about patterns that fail, I will only focus on the patterns that I get stopped out of because of impatience or illogical placement of PRZ.
Friday night, going over a lot of trades from the previous week. Seeing all the trades I missed and self reflecting. What is bugging me lately, is that patterns on the 5 minute chart rarely reach profit targets. Most of them are quick reactions but never really any true reversals. That is really bugging me. Is this the timeframe I should be trading on? Should I move up to the fifteen minute timeframe? Price will initially react but only for a few pips barely even giving me a one to one risk to reward when the trendline is broken. I have a few ideas on how to trade a failed pattern but, I don’t want to employ it until I master trading patterns.
I could make a list of a million things that need to be worked on but, the only thing I care about is trading the patterns. I just want to make it through my trading day and take all the trades that my strategy tells me that’s all.
You must be setting targets differently on M5 charts, I think, from how you feel you’d set them on M10 or M15 charts, then? The levels prices reach are clearly not determined by the periodicity of charts we select.
Again, the levels prices reach will not be changed by looking at them on a different chart.
If you’re using indicators to select your entries and/or targets, that’s another matter.
In general, indicator signals tend to be more reliable on longer time-frames, and produce higher win-rates, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they also produce higher overall profits, because reliability (win-rate) and profitability are two different parameters.
Many traders feel that what they mistakenly refer to as “noise” on lower time-frames is reduced on higher time-frames.
In any case, I would suggest that only [I][U]testing[/U][/I] can possibly answer your question with confidence: you probably need to compare the outcomes of 300 trades on each time-frame (not forgetting to allow for trading frequency as a parameter, of course, in calculating the profitability of each). Anything else is going to be only a [I]guess[/I], at best - and that’s clearly no basis for trading decisions.
(For what it’s worth, if anything, personally I would test M10 charts before M15 charts, if you’re currently using M5 charts and wanting to know whether “slower is better”.)
Hello lexys,
Thank you for the kind advice! I have looked into what you have said and I would like some feedback. I am a student and I only have time to trade from 5 PM EST to 2 AM EST before I need to sleep and head to school at 6:30 AM EST. Sometimes, fifteen minute patterns don’t complete at all during my trading hours and the market just moves sideways. Also, I have tried looking at ten minute patterns but, since I only have the basic tradingview.com account, I can not set custom timeframes for ten minutes! Any advice?
Thank you so much!
Sriddy
Pattern: Shark
Entry: 1.05657
Exit: 1.05663
This was a shark pattern on the five minute chart on EUR/USD. I measured out the pattern well and created the ideal PRZ. The only thing that faltered was my entry. By the time, I got in price had already moved a significant amount and I was scrambling to to get my position in. I think if I can enter on the terminal bar close, my entry will be closer to the top/lower end of the PRZ. If this occurs then I can hold these patterns for a bit longer, earn more pips, and be able to take the opposite side when I need to. There are downsides to this as I could be entering a failed pattern but, I will just have to learn when patterns work and when they don’t.
Since tradingview.com’s basic membership does not offer ten minute charts and fifteen minute charts do not complete during my trading hours, I have to master the five minute timeframe. Although, it is like catching a falling knife, if I want master harmonics as a student, well, this is what I have to do. I cannot become upset when a pattern fails, I have to learn to take the opposite side and trade. I will only permit myself to get upset when I don’t trade the pattern properly. As long as price is in the PRZ, I am making money. Simple as that.
Hi Sriddy,
I realised after posting that my comment about “if you’re using indicators” was a bit dozy, in a thread full of Gartley butterflies! :8:
Your time-zone/availability is slightly awkward for trading, I think. You’re looking at the “Asian session”, really, which I know little about; sorry. In my first year at college, that was also my own best time of day for trading, and I found it pretty difficult, for a year (I gave up on those hours and ended up more or less making do, during term-time, with about one and half days per week, when I could conveniently disappear without anyone noticing, for a year).
So I just don’t know - sorry. But hopefully others will contribute … or you might find some good/relevant insights in threads about trading the “Asian session”? I know liquidity’s not nearly so good, but maybe AUD/USD or some JPY pairs on either M5 or M15 charts, then??? :33:
Pattern: Butterfly
Entry: 1.39
Exit: 1.3895
Entry: 1.389
Exit: 1.3894
This was a butterfly pattern on the five minute chart. I first took the trade but, because of the high spread my entry was way above what it should’ve been. Maybe entering on the close of terminal bar will help. Price then moved against me creating a type 2 reversal. I then entered again, only to to be stopped out as the pattern failed. Price ended up reversing at the 1.618 level.
Maybe taking trade as soon as the terminal bar closes would not be the best option since, I won’t know if that’s the highest point in the pattern. How do I know price reverses on terminal bar instead of terminal bar plus 1? I wouldn’t, I have to wait until I see a clear sign of reversal and a RSI conformation.
Pattern: Gartley
Entry: 1.21725
Exit: 21726
This was a Gartley pattern on the five minute chart in GBP/USD. I got in when the five minute candlestick closed and when on the one minute time frame I had a bearish close. In less than a minute price reversed and took out my stop loss.
Here is what I am thinking, how about I don’t try to pick tops and bottoms and place stops where I KNOW the pattern is a 100% failed. When I set my stop like I did before, I am assuming that that is the top of the D point completion when I don’t know truly. If I place stops where I know the pattern is a hundred percent failed then I can rest assure that the pattern is failed. I bring this up because of now GBP/USD as reversed above the PRZ and is selling hard toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Also, since I am waiting for the true top maybe I should wait for a counter trend close on a higher time frame chart to help me really get closer to the TRUE top/bottom of the D point. I also may have thought of a way once price is past breakeven to set my stops so I am at a minimum loss if price retraces and I also know where to anticipate a type two reversal.
UPDATE: Price bounced off 38.2 level and is ranging in that zone.
Pattern: Bat
Entry: 79.018
Exit: 78.984
This trade was a five minute bat pattern in nzd/jpy. I followed my rules and took the trade, waited for the candle close. But, what really killed me was the spread on it. I was left with a trade that demolished my risk to reward by the time I got in. I exited when price broke my upward trend line.
This trade led me to some thoughts. Since spread is killing me should I only trade pairs that have a very low spread (less than 2.5) or should I trade the larger patterns? Both of advantages and now I am at a crossroads between the two…
Hi Lexys,
Thank you for all the help anyway and good luck!
Sriddy
Pattern: Bat
Entry: 86.37
Exit: 86.41
This was a bat pattern on AUD/JPY. I followed my rules and took the trade when I got a clear sell signal. The pattern failed and took my stop loss out.
When I put my stop loss, I should account for the spread, too. I am so frustrated by these harmonic patterns. Should I just quit and leave them, find something new? I spent a year of my life dedicating to these patterns and I feel I still haven’t mastered them.
Pattern: Gartley
Entry: 0.9985
Exit: 0.9986
I followed all my rules on this trade. Followed my entry plan and waited for the close of the candle. I took the trade but, as soon as it broke my one minute trendline I closed the trade. This trade ended up retesting the upper part of the PRZ and then flying to the target profit.
I think from now onwards I am going to wait until I get a CLOSE below the completion of the pattern and then close out the trade.
- 1 Pip
Pattern: Butterfly
Entry: 139.014
Exit: 139.013
I traded this pattern very well! I waited until the candle close. I placed my stops well and as soon as I saw a little green, I set the stop at breakeven. Of course I got stopped out but, currently I think my analysis is right and the trade is heading toward target profit.
Here is two things I learned from this trade. First, I learned that I will place stops below the completion of the pattern so I know the pattern is one hundred percent failed. I will be patient for candle closes so I know the pattern is failed
- 0 Pips