SSI: USDJPY Ratio Plummets, Retail Shorts Jump 32% as Pair Holds Below Range

[B]FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:[/B]

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[B]Intraday Highlight:[/B][B][/B][B]

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[B]USDJPY[/B] - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.70 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.10 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.2% lower than yesterday and 13.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 31.9% higher than yesterday and 13.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.3% weaker than yesterday and 102.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

[B]How to Interpret the SSI? [/B]The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don’t necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

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