Disappointing, yes, but understandable … I’m pretty sure from all my own experience with fast time-frames that Turbo will be absolutely right about that, overall. (It [I]might[/I] be workable to some extent on faster-moving constant-volume bars, though - I’m “just saying”.)
Hi Jazzman,
Thanks for the input. I am also sure that this will not work on shorter TFs than daily because the whole concept is based on the principle of riding the major, long duration, persistent trends that occur from time to time, and these are only really apparent on the long term TF.
Shorter TFs will inevitably chop these long term trends into smaller pieces and result in plenty of whipsaws whilst simultaneously, by definition, preventing the long profitable price runs.
This was the obstacle for me. I am not willing (nor wanting) to continually have 4/5 open positions overnight, let alone over weekends and holidays. Especially with something as volatile as Crude Oil and with which I am still unfamiliar!
But I am trying it another way. I still use the Daily charts and high/lows from that, as per Turbo’s instructions, but I am only entering trades from an hourly chart and only when the signal is in the same direction as the daily signal and for as long as the daily signal is still valid and not theoretically “stopped out”.
I wanted to hear how others have got on with other securities because the recent oil trend has been rather easy and not very representative.
Perhaps it is clearer to show the chart itself (stripped to a minimal).
-
the left hand section is the daily USOil and the latest trend started on 2.3. when price broke down through the previous low from 28.2. That down trend is still valid and the current stop is at 49.45 from 21.3.
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the right hand section is the 1Hour chart from the start of the trend on 2.3. until today. I have ringed all the occasions when, in theory, this chart resumed the down move and gave a sell signal. I certainly didn’t trade anywhere near all of these opportunities but all the ones I did take had a positive follow-through.
The chart is not very clear as I had to squeeze so many hours into it, but I hope it gives some idea of the principle in what I am trying to do here. I also believe that when the market inevitably does reverse then I wil not be in a position because the 1H chart will have got me out long before the daily “stop” level is hit - unless the daily stop has come right down to the current price action.
But this is still untried in a ranging market…
Thanks Manxx for sharing this and for your time to explain what you’re doing. Very much appreciated. I think I’ve got the gist of it. If I’m following you correctly, this is my understanding (or not) of your method: You’re still candle counting to determine the highs and lows on the Daily(?) and then looking for entries on the Hourly in the same direction as the Daily.
When you say “when the market inevitably does reverse then I will not be in a position because the 1H chart will have got me out long before the daily “stop” level is hit” - this is because your stop losses and take profits on the Hourly are inevitably tighter, commensurate with the highs and lows and S/R of that time frame?
When the Daily confirms the new direction (candle counting - highs and lows), you then start looking for entry points for new trade(s) on the Hourly…
Please correct me if I’m wrong. I’m sure it will become obvious when I actually start to practice it…
Thanks again!
Yes, that is correct. I am using the 5-day daily highs and lows as per Turbo’s method. But I have my concerns about just trading from those levels. Crude Oil is a very volatile (and therefore potentially rewarding 
) and although it makes some extremely long and profitable moves, it can also stick in a broad range for several months during which time it would at best earn nothing - and at worst get whipped for significant amounts. I do not relish the idea of making nothing for several months! Here are a couple of example periods that show my concern. The periods in the boxes cover several months!:
Correct again
By way of example, here’s a more detailed chart of the hourly trades over the last few days. The green circles are the entry areas, the red lines are the stop levels and the red circles are the move exhaustion areas, i.e. exits. Obviously, you use whatever is your own trading method to determine your hourly entries etc. This is just an example.
Are you trading Oil at the moment or is this a new interest for you? I only swapped over to this about a month back and I like it very much. But it can be wild (but maybe that is exactly why I like it! ). But this means I am a total Newbie regarding Oil trading - and there is really a lot of interesting stuff to learn…
We can talk about this some more if you like, but I don’t want to do that here because this is not strictly Turbo’s method (which also uses multiple securities). If you want to talk more then maybe we can swap to this thread: http://forums.babypips.com/commodities-and-bonds/85293-trading-crude-oil-1.html
Once the breakout has happened (moved above or below the low of the last 40 days) we stay in the market. No matter the outcome of the first trade. It is very possible that the breakout towards up was a whipsaw, this increases the probability that a breakout towards the downside is going to happen immediately after. So if we lose the first trade we go back to our standard 5-days trading system in which only the last 5 days matter (the 40 days system is now obsolete and will not be paid any attention to).
Hello turbo! Does this mean that after the breakout you also keep moving up your stoploss according to the 5 day rule? Sorry but how I read it it’s like you just wait for it to fall down again and lose all those pips.
And also, if you are already in 5 securities (trades) should you still look for other semi hot securities and their breakouts?
Thanks you 
Manxx - Again that’s great, very clear. Thanks! I’ve not traded oil before but briefly looked at it along with the price action trading equation method, which I didn’t pursue in the end. I’ve just had a quick glance at your Trading Crude Oil thread and it looks extremely interesting. Give me some time to read it properly and digest it and we’ll talk again on that thread.
Hey!
First and foremost i want to say that this is an extremely useful resource and have to give my thanks to TURBONero for his contribution!
Although to clarify things, since this is a crucial part of this strategy, i want to ask on thing. If i do the updating and stuff in the evening: i take the last 4 days+todays price action into account when creating new order (lke i take its highs and lows into account when setting up new trades). But when updating the stop loss of an ongoing trade, i do not take today price action into account and i use the past FIVE days instead of the past four days + today? Please if someone had a better understanding on this give me a point in the right direction.
Also, just want to ask: isnt this system vulnerable to the different candle closing times by different brokers?
I’ve started using this on a demo account today, on 4 pairs (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, USD/CAD), I’m a complete beginner, only been really reading up on it for a couple of weeks, I think this is a perfect starting point for me, so far the demo account has more or less been just so I can try things as I learn, rather than just read and read for hours on end!
So far one is in profit, EUR/GBP, short entry was 0.85424, s/l 0.87343, currently at 0.85237, the other 3 are yet to execute, I’ll try to remember to keep track of them all and keep updating on here.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge!
[ul]
[li]Eur/usd long @1,06676 / sl 1,05213
[/li][/ul]
Stopped trading after 3 losses in a row. = -3,8% of account
Resumed trading after 40 days high/low = +/- Rpofit/loss 0%
1st countertrade still running at +0,9% profit
[ul]
[li]xau/usd long @1.244,58 / sl 1.216,71
[/li][/ul]
1st trade stopped out at 0,5% profit
countertrade stopped out at 11% profit
2nd countertrade stopped out at 8% profit
[ul]
[li]gbp/eur short@1,1691 / sl 1,1822
[/li][/ul]
1st trade stopped out at -1,1% loss
countertrade stopped out at -0,2% loss
2nd countertrade stopped out at +8,5% profit
3rd countertrade stopped out at +0,5% profit
4th countertrade stopped out at -0,9% loss
5th countertrade still running at 2,2% profit
[ul]
[li]usd/jpy short @113,14 / sl 114,9570
[/li][/ul]
1st trade stopped out at -1,4% loss
countertrade stopped out at -2% loss
2nd countertrade stopped out at -1,2% loss
stopped trading
resumed trading after 40 days high/low : ist trade long stopped out at -2%
countertrade stoped out at 5,5% profit
2nd countertrade still running at +0,9% profit
[ul]
[li]usd/chf short @ 1,0006 / sl 1,0119
[/li][/ul]
1st trade stoppedmout at -0,7% loss
countertrade stopped out at +0,3% profit
2nd countertrade stopped out at -1,6% loss
3rd countertrade stopped out at -1,8% loss
4th countertrade stopped out at +9% profit
5th countertrade still running at +1,8% profit
Result of 1,5 month trading:
[B]32,4% account growth.[/B]
The overall result of 1,5 month trading is around 32%. Average 21,6% account gain/month.
account starting with €10.000 = monthly return of €2.100
account starting with €100.000 = monthly return of €21.000
within the next week i will try to find time to answare some questions rased since my last post in this thread.
i appologize for having so little time at hand lately to reply on questions and issues in this thread.
That’s some incredible returns for such a short time period.
1 Like
I’m still testing this system and results are good.
I’m only using Forex currencies at the moment.
I might add a few Futures , Indices or Shares to it in near future.
Only thing I don’t like is that you sometimes get stopped out by a few pips on a pull back in a trend.
I’m thinking to add / subtract 10 pips to the 5 day high / low as entry and SL position to avoid this. That way the 5 day high / low needs to be really broken before we go trading into the other direction.
From my experience the only way to make some profit is averaging down 
Hello Royten,
im sorry i took so long to answare youre queston, which is a good one and i wondered already why noone asked before.
Tothe issue you are pointing out i have not yet found a preset rule. After using the 40/30days methode a new/first position has a wide stop loss. if the stop loss gets triggered we continue trading on the 5-days methode again with set stop losses. but what if the fist position is a big winner and the stop loss never has been touched? unfortunately i did not come up yet with a strictrule to this scenario. You can see yourself when you find it secure to start trading regarding the 5-days rue again. I think the best option would be when the first trade exceeds a profit of 2%.
After the trade has shown to be a small winner it would be wise to secure to not lose the first small proits and after 2% to change to the 5-days stop loss method.
When you already have 5 positions; yes continue looking for the 6th position and enter it. once you entered the 6th positions you wait till one (of the 6) position gets stoped out by the 5-days methode and you continue looking further for a 6th position again (40-days methode).
that way you always have 5 trades running, sometimes 6 and never 7, or 8 or 9 etcetc.
I am interested myself if anyone is trading this methode yet. since i developed and postet it for people on BP to trade with.
Is anyone considering trading it?
After the 1.5 months of testing i did, the result were rather good and the risk was never more than 4-5% of account in same time, even with 5 positions open. and the risk always spreaded over several days.
Is anyone reading this thread with the intention to maybe use this methode?
2000 views in 48hours but no questions, replies, or anything. seems to me theres little demand/interest in this.
Hello Sotdumm,
yes this is correct. In the evening, the todays price action has happened, all is prized in and nothing much will change anymore (besides a few pips). This means if you trade late evenings - after the usual times of press releases of FED and thelike.
As evening i consider everything 6 hours after the New York open. (by then there aswell are no press releases anymore and europe is closed, leaving the volume very low.)
I’m still using it in one of my demo accounts, no real results yet, 5 positions are open (none have closed yet, hence no real results) with a total of +1.5% unrealized profit, 3 trades currently in profit, 2 in debt.
hello Steve,
happy to see you are still on it!
The idea of few pips is not a bad one, if you made the experience that this might help. After all, on daily candles 10 pips do not make a big difference in the risk/reward equation but if it saves a trade which later becomes a profiting one- it for sure can help!
Good point sotdumm,
as long as you stick to one broker it makes no difference.
Anyways, if the closing prizes varry on the broker you are trading with- from the real closing prizes- then you should consider on switching to a more precize broker. Any trading is vulnerable to unprecize brokers.
The most precize brokers i have encountered are the big banks. I have a tier2 account at Commerzbank, seccond biggest bank in germany- i take their prizes as benchmark to compare with other brokers. sometimes there is a difference but if your broker is a reliable one the difference is not enough to create a problem.