Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

Yes, I like that - two different ways to crack the same nut…

Hello Jedster, Stephen777,

glad that got sorted out. :slight_smile:

EDIT: i will think that Kelton’s method is more mechanical and easier to automate.

  • guandi

Yahoo! Up 16% for this week!

For last few trades, I have been substituting a buy on EG instead of basketing the other two pairs, sorta challenging, because it was difficult to determine a good TP, but using kelton’s observation method for entry, since the spread is lower, I have been targeting smaller gaps, risking about 1.5 times more lots, and having TP of only 5-10 pips, this meant more trades, and when gap opened up to 20 pips, I just opened another EG buy with 10 pip TP, I put TP orders on each EG trade, and let them close themselves, no SL…20 pip gap opened to maybe 30 pips, before going to bed last night, so I put another buy EG with 12 pip TP, woke up with all trades closed, at profit, and EG went way past TP target, which is fine, TP target was .8020, BTW, if you want to look at your history.

Glad to see EA, medisoft…so this one is for user discretion on entries points? In other words, do I just decide when I want to enter and drag the script at that time to the chart? I haven’t been able to look at VPS, yet, BTW.

Hello pipcompounder,

A question what makes you buy instead of sell? How do you determine?

Best regards.

  • guandi

to answer your question, Guandi, Since I use Kelton’s way of looking at the charts to see gaps, I look to see which pair is below the other…so right now the GU is under the EU, 20 pip gap, so since EG has the Euro as the first, or primary currency, I sell EG…yesterday the EU was above the GU, so I was buying EG…if you put BB on, it gives you a clue, too.

Edit, just for laughs…we all outdid JPmorgan…they bet on the economy improving, what a joke! anyways, they lost $2 billion, while I made 16%, celebration!

Congs, Pip!

my first post on thread though following it for a while

i have been planning on coding an automatic EA for this Kelton’s idea.

the essential thing is to program the entry condition, that is, a GAP is there! but how to detect that gap?

in MQL, i can identify a gap this way: if eurusd is 10 pips higher than 5 MA and gbpusd is 10 pips lower than 5 MA, there will be a GAP! we should sell eurusd and buy gbpusd (or short eurgbp, same).

but then there is a problem that might also happen. sometimes on the overlay chart, the eurusd is under gbpusd, but since eurusd maybe is in a small bullish run and gbpusd is in a small retrace so that eurusd 10 pips > 5 MA and gbpusd 10 pips < 5 MA is also valid. in this case, since eurusd is in fact under gbpusd (on overlay chart), it will be wrong to short eurgbp, won’t it?

not sure when you guys manually trade it how you deal with/view this condition? or do you have some suggestion to filter out this condition in EA coding?

Congratz!

My fully automated EA had not that good results :frowning: hehhee, I’m returning to vitrite technique to find a better way to do it.

And yes, you can use discretion. Onlye drag an drop the scripts, set the parameters and that’s all.

medisoft-
does your EA open the trades as soon as it is dropped on chart?

Hi Charvo

I’m already trying to code it. I had done something that didn’t work pretty well… at the beginning it worked, but right now it is stalled.

I started trading visually again, on 1M.

Look at this chart:

And this where I marked some possible trades

You can see that there is a dotted SMA, it is a 240 periods SMA.

What I found is that a long period SMA can be good to mark the point of reference. Also there is another SMA that is not visible because it is about 5 periods.

Please check the charts making a zoom in. When the distance between two charts is 10 or more pips and one is going up and the other is going down (using the 5 period SMA to measure the direction) it seems to be a good point to enter a trade…

Please confirm this on your observations :slight_smile:

Nop, once you drop the script, it ask you for parameters. If you click on cancel, it does not enter any trade. If you click on OK after verifying the parameters, then it places the trade with the two pairs.

Hey medisoft…on your pics, how come the red GU graph is higher compared to green EU graph on second pic, than on the first pic? Your first pic is exactly how my charts looked today overlaying the two Dailyfx charts…that’s nice to know!

It is using the Kelton’s vitrite technique.

Yeah but…do you see the difference between the two pics? The GU is different height? On the second pic the gap between the pairs is smaller, closer.

Help with Indicator:

  • I try to develop same idea but with diferents indicators, please help me to make a indicator that show the diferences. Please let me explain ( check graphic attached please ).
    1.- We set envelopes indi at 0.1, 0.2 until 2.0 , Period 200 EMA
    2.- Previusly we choose two pair with positive correlation, lets say AUDCHF and GBPCHF
    3.- We took as “base price” EMA 200
    4.- So, In case of AUDCHF , according picture, we can meter/read +0.5 “units” from base price
    5.- GBPCHF as well it is a reading of -0.3 “units”.
    6.- We need to plot/draw a indicator that show us the diference between pair 1 and pair 2, this case 0.5 - (-0.3 ) = +0.8
    7.- I try to develop wich was the average of such “units diference” and try to enter buy/sell according such readings.
    8.- May be +1.2 or -1.2 be the correct timing diference or +1.8 or -1.8, but visually is tired to see.
    So, Can somebody make a indicator that plot :
    a) Units from pair 1 to “base price” ? AND
    b) Units from pair 2 to “base price” ? AND
    c) Diference between pair1-pair2 ??
    Please note , if price is above EMA200 then we assume “positive units” and, if below of ema200 then is “negative units”
    Also note each “step” of each “unit” is diference for each pair. This value is granted by envelope indi.

Thanks in advance. Hope I made clear the explication.


Today just before to get to bed I opened my two MT4 with vitrite. Immediatly I found a possible trade with 10 pip divergence. I bought EU/GU. About 5 minutes later I see that the trade diverged to 20 pips, so I opened another buy basket. After that I closed my local MT4, and let my VPS MT4 with the EA I posted here to close the trade. Meanwhile I saw Avatar The legend of Aang episode 4. After finished that episode I checked the trade… and guess what! both basked were closed with profit! 1.78 % in only 22 minutes! pretty good :slight_smile:

Congrats medisoft!
Now just repeat trades like that for rest of the life of Forex market!

I think right now EU/GU is diverging very good! please confirm!

YUP had up to 60+ pips gap…GU on top…now showing 30-35 gap…very good! EG showing this may cross over good, too…
GU was way below this morning, now way up!

are you going to enter this trade?

or already in?

BEEN IN FOR A WHILE! hope it closes sooner than later.