and Oops if your in a trade for a very long time, like a few days, do you still keep entering trades as the divergence is getting bigger and bigger?
hi ryan
im using 1 min but going to try 5 min this week, as with the 1 min the charts can rescale and im experimenting with the scale fix, but i find with the 5 min you dont need to use scale fix as much as the 1 min, the 5 min is the 1 min zoomed out with 5 times the data
I only add 3 times, longest trade I have had is 12 days. opened on 1st Juneā¦ Fridayā¦
I wasnāt thinking of NFP!!!
that sux so those 12 days you couldnāt trade
with all those days the 1 min had to rescale and prices were touching but you were still in negative what did u do, go to the 15 min TF?
I had to go up to the 1 hour charts!!! so yeah, no trades for 12 days and big DD, I closed that trade at $30 profit, purely just to get out of the trade, even though it had the potential profit of $250-300!
But I was more than happy just to get out!
lesson learntā¦ that was me putting on to bigger position size , being over confident!
and that was the week my PC dies so only made a couple of trades before that, that week.
so i was wanting more than the market was going to give!
when you keep going up to the bigger time frames do you use scale fix? because with different TF sometimes EUR will be above GBP and sometimes the other way around?
big DD? but you didnt have a losing trade, you mean big negative for those 12 days?
do you remember what the position size was
05/31/2012 06:34 06/12/2012 15:28 EURUSD Sell 20000.00 0.00000 0.00000 1.23973 1.24793 -82.0 -164.00
05/31/2012 06:35 06/12/2012 15:28 GBPUSD Buy 20000.00 0.00000 0.00000 1.54889 1.55676 78.7 157.40
05/31/2012 13:57 06/12/2012 15:28 GBPUSD Buy 20000.00 0.00000 0.00000 1.54510 1.55676 116.6 233.20
05/31/2012 13:57 06/12/2012 15:28 EURUSD Sell 20000.00 0.00000 0.00000 1.23791 1.24793 -100.2 -200.40
at 13.57 pm, I was $4 per pip, I donāt know why it says 31st may though, as it was defiantly the 1st June,
I remember that pair of trades like it was yesterday!!! it wasnāt a good feeling!
big negative positionā¦so big its secretā¦ 
So I am adapting (using less units) and at the moment working out better exit strat.
So I donāt blow my whole account!
Donāt laughā¦
here are 2 pages from my ārisk analysisā in my trading diary lololololol
Please donāt do the maths as you will probably find Iām way off!!!
at least you wrote it down in your trading diary
and also when you keep going up to the bigger time frames do you use scale fix? because with different TF sometimes EUR will be above GBP and sometimes the other way around?
Christinaa, my trades are going fine. Thanks for asking. A break down of the month of June shows three losses. In one I forgot to put in some data. (my fault) The second took longer than 48 hours so I just closed it in a loss (again my fault, but made the money back on the very next trade) and as it turns out it would have closed in profit anyway, just took to darn long. And the third was a loss of less than 5 dollars again because it was longer than 48 hours but it was less than a full pip loss, was in at 15 dollars a pip. I was trying to time it so I could exit at break even but by the time I hit the button it moved a little. Should have just waited and extra ten minutes or so. (also my fault). So thatās how my trades are going for the month. right around 20 trades overall.
As far as percentage gains it would be a little misleading as I only use keltons method to get some trades in when I donāt want to do the math. but 13.82% was the end result. According to the benchmark I use to gauge my performance Iām in second place for the month. ( against currency hedge funds that openly publish performance) Not bad per se but not good. I was a little to conservative the first two weeks. Wonāt make that mistake again.
As usual I see that people here are still making profitable trades. Thatās always good. I havenāt been posting lately, really donāt see a need to. It seems that at the moment everyone is working together and solving problems before I can even log in. Which is such a good thing. Iām pretty glad I found this tread , nothing better than to see a group of strangers help each other make money. But like always, any questions for me and Iāll be glad to help.
Cheers
Good because Iāve got some questions
do you use scale fix? Or do you just open the charts up and use them as they are?
48 hours? Sometimes my trades go for a few days. What time frame do you mostly use?
if your in a trade for a long time, do you still keep adding lots as the divergence is getting bigger and bigger?
do you trade over the weekend? If not how do you close your trades on Friday before the weekend closes?
Are you still only using Eurusd and Gbpusd?
Thank you
Well, ALL of my trades are a form of arbitrage, I use quantitative modeling. I never enter a trade otherwise. (when you bet on a sure thingā¦hedge) So I should have clarified that when a trade takes longer than 48 hours and I close it I was talking about the ānon keltonā trades. So I am assuming you want the answers to apply to the kelton system. If Iām wrong let me know.
When using keltons system I donāt use fix scale. i just open the charts line them up and fire away. During the month of June I used the hourly, and ten minute frames.
As for the growing divergence question , no I did not continue to add to the position. Once I placed the trade I simply let it be. How ever my profit targets were between 10 -20 pips. Mostly I would close it a + 15 pips no matter how much profit was āleft on the table.ā So I wouldnāt be stuck in a longer term trade. It has the effect of reducing my overall profits I know but, it was a trade off because I was not using this method exclusively.
No, I do not trade over the weekend. Too much headline risk. I rarely had a trade open on Friday. I try to stop opening new trades by Wednesday night unless I get a setup I just canāt resist. My absolute cut off is Thursday afternoon. 24 hours before market close.
Mostly the eur/aud/nzd for June, with a sprinkle of yen for spiceā¦
Hope that helps, you know where to find me if you guys need anything
When you say you line the charts up, do you mean you use the scroll? Or do you just mean you use the vitrite to visually overlap?
You would mostly Take Profit at + 15 pips, so how much divergence are you looking for to make a trade?
So how do you close negative trades just before the Friday close?
and timehopper do you use a Take Profit EA that closses ALL trades when a desired overall Profit is reached?
I use the Vitrite to overlap. I open two windows and line up the grid by date and time. when the windows are exactly the same size and time frame I then look for a big divergence. I donāt really have a target gap amount. Just whatever happens to be there as long as it big. If itās 20 or so then I place a trade with the intention of getting 10 pips. If the gap is 30 or larger then I look to get about 15 pips. Then I exit. I do this mostly on market open, Sunday and Monday. This was Iām not stuck in a longer term trade. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday I us quant data to choose my pairs. Then I have an average hold time of 6 hours, sometimes it can take longer, but thatās the average. Thatās why I Wonāt place any new trades 24 hours before the market close no matter how sweet the set up. In general I donāt have negative trades by market close. In the event I somehow didā¦ I would simply close it anyway. IMO itās not worth it to have a trade open over the weekend. There is almost always a gap when the market reopens on the eur side. So I figure why bother. But I take that gap on the open and place a trade knowing that the gap is the divergence we are looking for to enter.
No I donāt use a Take Profit Ea. Or any EA at all for that matter. I donāt use metatrader because I use a apple computer. I use the brokers online platform to execute trades. Not that there is anything wrong with using an ea, I just donāt. I get a better feel of whatās going on and can better identify opportunities when I do everything by hand.
2:01 pm edt. trade entered. Short Eur/ aud Long Eur/nzd . Profit target of 10 pips. using daily chart for data. Real time trade
eur/aud 1.2281 eur/nzd 1.5661
Thank you timehopper for that very thorough response I really appreciate it
and thanks for that market open tip 
5:31pm edt trade closed. 10.9 pips profit wash, rinse, repeat. (see post #896)
I backtest the strategy from 1999.
Hallo people. CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN WHY MUST WE ADD POSITIONS???