Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

Doing quick calculation. 3000 usd, 2% risk. 200 pip stop loss on eugu.

Risk is then 60 usd divided by 200 pip it is about 0.30 per pip, that is about .03 lots on a full lot account and 0.30 on a mini account.

My account is only 100 usd and I’m trading with 0.01 minilots, that is a cent per pip.

I’m using chfjpy and eurjpy.

That’s what I worked it out as as well, it’s kind of rubbish with such small lot sizes…

my account has grown from 3k to 4k in 2 months I’m using $1-1.5 per pip, which I do feel is too much risk,
however I do get good account growth, I suppose the flip side is I will also get a good account explosion
at some point!!!
hence why people say, must have a good starting balance!..

So with 0.30 per pip, 20 pip divergence = $6 per profitable trade give or take a little for spread and closing a bit early…
you need 10 good trades to = 1 loosing trade!!! bad R:R!!!
however this system is very …insert good word here for a not loosing system…
so i dont think it matters too much!

how many trades are people getting a week?

are you using the 40 divergence entry, 20 TP, 200 SL for these JPY pairs aswell or just eu gu?
how long average time do you find this JPY trade to go for?

Nop, only on eugu. On the jpy pairs I’m still evaluating the best point because eur and chf are pretty correlated, more than eur and gbp.

so have you finished your 100 trades back test?

thats quite small though, marijan993 made 80% in 20 days, do you think he was over leveraging?

whats your average trade time with euryen chfyen?

i find eu gu can take days sometimes

anyone have any other JPY correlated pairs?

Yeah, on eugu. I found that the entry level defines the succeed of a trade. On normal market conditions the best entry for me is 40 pip divergency. With that entry i can take profit of 20 pips easely in less than 24 hours. I’m using 100 pip stop, but to be sure a 200 pip is enough. The risk reward is ugly but the win/loss is great. 22 profits in a row with about 4 trades daily.

Well, with 5% risk and 4 trades daily one can make 4% daily. That is enough for the 80%. I’m going to increase my risk this week because the stats shows me the high probability of the system. My goal is to reach about 1% daily so a risk of 3% should be enough.

Pretty high! About 2 weeks but I’m still evaluating the best entry/tp/sl.

great thanks
and this is 1 min?
and do you use scale fix?

can you please explain this, do you mean 5% risk per trade? spread over 200 pips SL, TP 20 pips

Yes, 1 min, and yes, i use scale fix. I fix it twice a day IF i have no open orders.

I enter at 40 Pío spread. MY sl is 100 pips. With 5% risk that is 1% every 20 pips. I do about 4 trades daily, that is 4% a day.

ok thanks, its just the fix spread thats going to make it interesting

2 weeks is the normal time a trade takes with euryen chfyen?

im in 2 trades at the moment
long eurjpy short gbpjpy
long chfjpy short gbpjpy

yes, but as I said, I didn’t test this very good. I have only 4 trades done with chfjpy / eurjpy.

What I have tested is EU/GU. The trades on EU/GU last less than a day, move pretty good and very safe. This is the reason I’m using them mainly.

I’m also evaluating cadjpy/audjpy, because they are less correlated than chfjpy/eurjpy, but they are still correlated, but I’m not sure they work.

But with EU/GU I’m very happy. I just increased the risk to 5 % per trade with the settings I wrote before, and that gave me today more than 3 %.

With 3-5 % daily my account is going to grow very fast!

I have been trading The fiber/cable with this system and have been verry happy. Only get a trade or two a day but at 1% risk that is still 2% per day. That’s all I need. Very nice strategy.