Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

No problem, glad to help. Unfortunately Oanda is back to FIFO. I tried to close a trade today and would not let me until I closed the older trade. Sorry for the bad news. :frowning:

Yes there are (as they say) many ways to skin a cat. However since Iā€™ve actually never skinned a cat let me just stick to the topic!

I think youā€™re correct in that with this generic strategy (high correlation pairs, playing the spread divergence to converge) that changing the correlation aspect of things does quite substantially alter the outcome of the strategy.

In fact, using low correlation combinations is more in line with what is commonly done with cointegration, rather than correlation. Many practitioners of Stat Arb use cointegration to create spreads. I see the split between correlation and cointegration as two branches on the same Stat arb tree, but the calculations are quite different. Cointegration is more math and model based. Correlation is more empirical. There are some rather interesting threads on using cointegration in a trading strategy to create spreads that mean revert. Study of this topic may spark some ideas for those who are interested in broadening their understanding of the stat arb space.

System to hedge every major dollar pair for profit / low DD @ Forex Factory
Synthetic hedges, cointegration, mean reversion and similar stuff @ Forex Factory

You are completely correct.

I have been trading this stat arb since this thread was created. I donā€™t use this method, but I do use the same basis for trades.

In my time trading I have realized the best pair to trade is AUD/NZD NZD/USD. However, I also realized that if you were to chart this pairs divergence you actually see AUD/NZD. This pair works best because AUD/NZD is a pair that tends to range a majority of the time. Which makes sense because these too fundamentally are very similar countries. They are right next to each other so their economies would be affected in similar ways and they are strong trading partners. This is the same reason why the EUR and GBP are so strongly correlated.

To those that say the spread would be better to trade AUD/NZD, I would argue that the benefit of using HALF the margin would be the greatest benefit of trading the AUD/NZD as opposed to AUD/USD NZD/USD.

You still know the general direction that AUD/NZD will go:
ā€¦-ā€¦+ā€¦+ā€¦-ā€¦-ā€¦+
AUD/USD NZD/USD = AUD/NZD

(If you can make sense of this lol. It didnt want to post the way I wanted it to so I had to use the periods lol.)

So you are actually able to open twice as many trades. That means twice as much profit (also twice as much risk).

Iā€™m going to record a video and upload to Youtube.

Lol I have been thinking of doing the same for this thread, I was thinking of a cross between the really over enthusiastic get rich in 30 seconds and the really boring fall asleep in 30 seconds!!!

Here is the videoā€¦ the audio is out of sync from the video, but you can got the idea :slight_smile:

How to center & lock screen for Keltonā€™s Statarb method - YouTube

A few thoughtsā€¦(Rant for the week)

There is almost nothing better to see than strangers working together to make money. With that said I do want to give just a piece of advice to those out there who are meeting with success using this and other strategies, ā€œDONā€™T OVER LEVERAGE OR RISK TO MUCH PER TRADE.ā€ This is a awesome way to trade. For those who have read my paltry profile, Arbitrage is the ONLY way I trade. Iā€™ve got years of experience working in a firm trading accounts for people with way more money than I had. I said that to say thisā€¦ while this system is in my opinion a very easy way to trade and has a very high success rate DONā€™T GET ****Y. (which tends to happen when all you do is win :cool: ) I havenā€™t lost while using this method but remember Black Swans will destroy your account if your are in for too much in your trades. People much smarter than us ( those of you with nobel prizes not withstanding) have almost broken the bank even while using market neutral systems. Think LTCM ( long term capital management). The trade that Iā€™m currently in almost blew up in my face today. ALMOSTā€¦ Had I gotten in with the amount per pip that I first wanted to I would be in a serious world of hurt right now. ( the spread got wider than itā€™s been in a very long time, and did so in a hurry) Lucky for me I remembered that the market has a way of smacking you in the face when you get out of line and will do so repeatedly until you learn your lesson. Return OF your money is more important than return ON your money, because thereā€™s always another chance to trade. Remember we are going up against people and firms with alot more resources, capital, knowledge and skill than any of us. Remember just like LTCM we are simply trying to pick up nickels, not rob the bank. Remember LTCM had returns of over 40% in the first year alone, but unseen and unanticipated events (black swans) caused a ā€œperfectā€ system to blow up.

Please for your sake and mine keep your risk and price per pip low in all your trades, and live to fight another day.

Cheers and happy hunting, from a very lucky Timehopper

Do you think itā€™s right to center charts like this ? I mean that if you do the process now, and the pairs are centered, and i do the process later (e.g 12 hours) then you may have a divergence on your charts and mine will be centered that time. Which one will be corect ?.
Maybe iā€™m missing something, my apologies if so. :slight_smile:
I use vitrite, but with no centered pairs.
Sorry for my English.
Thanks.

What leverage and $/pip for what sized accounts do you guys use? I need to get better money management skills!
Also a thing I noticed about EUR/USD vs GBP/USD is sometimes one charts pip range will be different then the otherā€¦

For example if I measure on the EUR chart the difference is 20 pips and when I measure on the GBP chart its 35pips do you guys change your lot sized based on this or do you leave it as 1 lot to 1 lot?

Thanks

I donā€™t know if it is right for you. For me it works. Maybe you find another better way to do that, but this one is what is working for me :slight_smile:

And remember that I donā€™t re-center the screen while I have open orders. I re-center only when I have no open orders.

The basic idea for this is to know for sure which pair has moved more than the other from a defined point in time. If EU is above GU after some time, that could mean that GU has moved down faster than EU or that EU has moved up faster than GU or that EU is moving up and GU is moving down.

The correlation then will correct that problem, making both pairs to move on the same direction and one should reach the other at some point, there I take my profits.

My account is 100 USD. I use 1 nano lot (1 cent per pip) for each basket. That way my account can handle up to 100*100=10,000 pip loss, or 10 baskets losing 1000 pips each one, and that is very improbable.

Now 80 pips divergens EU GU

i finally got 40 pips divergence on EU GU
TP set to 20

Good job. Now donā€™t forget to let us know how it works out. :stuck_out_tongue:

Made 10% today :slight_smile: in another trade Short 1 lot GBP/USD Long 1 lot EUR/USD possible 40 pips looking for 10 pips! Dont wanna be greedy :slight_smile:

Took another 10 pips! And Iā€™m in the trade again! Iā€™m up 20% using this method started this week! Thanks for making this thread!

Hi,
anyone Long EURUSD Short GBPUSD since 6 Jul?, Iā€™m down by more than 200pips, wonder what goes wrong :frowning:

bernard, looking back at 7-6, it looks like the biggest spread was around 3:20 when e/u was 1.2371 and g/u was 1.5521. it would have made a spread on the e/u chart of about 25. medisoft prefers a 40 if i understand correctly. however, there is another problem here. at that time, the e/u was actually ABOVE the g/u, which means if you were to do anything it would be to short the e/u and long the g/u. hope this helps.

my trade hasnā€™t hit SL or TP so i left it open over the weekend, a big divergence with EU GUā€¦

It is big isnā€™t it!!!

Iā€™m down $123!!! Not too fussed though, I added to position at -$170 and oanda spread widening makes the total more than it should be!! Quite happy I didnā€™t add at -$120 which was the plan!