$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

YES! The market is back, after a not-so-great October. Today has 20 and 40 TP so far.

Hello,

tell me please actually what a setting you are using in EA ? Thanks

same as before for real account,

  1. Entry at same as before, 3 pips above, 1 pip below.
  2. Refcandlepips true, and 5 pips above, and 3 pips below.
  3. Lockinpips at +8 pips
  4. MaxSL as false (yes losses may be worse, but they are fewer, and the profit at the end of the month is much better)
  5. BE at 19 pips
  6. TSL1 at 20 pips, TSL2 at 25 pips.
  7. My london open server time is set at 10 for me, so I have my end time for pending orders to be opened at 15
  8. of course, my TP stay at 20, 40, and 60 pips.

I am testing various settings on the side at the same time.

Wow, you guys are all amazing here for what you are doing.
Iā€™m new here. and for all that are devoting their time to test , create EA is just AMAZING WORK.

I hope you guys come up with the perfect EA, just a newbie with mostly losses than gains.
FInally able to follow money management, but still struggling.

Hello Pipcompounder, killerNo & All,

Firstly I apologize for being absent the last two weeks.
Secondly I take this opportunity as an Indian to wish everyone a very Happy Deepawali. This Indian festival is devoted to Goddess Lakshmi who is known as the Goddess of Wealth and prosperity. So I pray that all of us grow as a better and profitable trader the coming year.

On that note let me also say that I have finally revised the EA to add KillerNoā€™s idea of moving the pending orders a few predefined pips after BE is hit. There are two variables DistBuyAftBE & DistSellAftBE (self evident I believe) which are to be used to set the distance of pending orders incase BE is hit. This will be used only if you set the variable UseLockinOrder to ā€œtrueā€. If it is false then the EA will perform as the previous version.

It was quite tricky to come out with the logic. I dont think the way I have done is the best, so folks who can understand programming a bit are encouraged to go through the program and suggest ways of improving it.
Please backtest the EA day by day visually to check how the EA performs and find the perfect settings. I am very sure there are bugs in it. I myself am confused many times I read the EA and it didnt help that I only could work on it in bits & pieces. I have also not backtested it a lot.

London Breakout v1-3-2.zip (4.87 KB)

Thank you, once again, crisscross, for your great contributions to this thread and community!
Weā€™ll test your EA to see how well that works, it may play well into my very short BE SL idea, which is getting betterā€¦

I have been demoing with a ECN broker on the side with average spread of less than 1 pip, and commission, which greatly improves my idea, which I detail nowā€¦
I have one of the three trades with just a 1 pip TP, and have the BE set to just 1 pip, and the lockinpips at -3 pips, which allows there to be a very small loss, and opportunity for reentry, very rapidly, and almost makes the initial SL not a problemā€¦there is the slight technical possibility that the price could trigger the orders and then retrace to SL without moving the pip forward to hit first 1 pip TP and move SL to -3 pips, with a broker with tighter spreads, the price only needs to move almost 2 pips to do this, where as with my other broker, the spread makes the price have to move almost 4 pips, which reduces the likelyhood of this being effective. The other two trades have 20 and 40 pip TP, which were used to great effect this morningā€¦it looked like this: 3 losses @ -2 pips, and 1 set of wins at 20 and 40 TP, which netted 50 pips.
the moving entry with this new EA version can be used to make losses almost none, but may risk the TP not being hit as the entry will get closer and closer to the range of the price movementā€¦I think 1 pip increments will work OK, with this ECN broker

Hello Pipcompounder,
You may be onto something. With an ECN broker you would also be able to open trades on both directions (Hedging)-just suggesting, maybe you could devise a strategy using that.
Anyways, I shall be again busy for the next three days of this week. Pls post your backtest results/bugs/suggestions to EA etc and i shall work on it.

Safe trading

hi,

thanks for the new EA crisscross.I am testing it now and gonna run a backtest and come back with the result. It looks like working fine so far.

pipcompounder

could you please tell ypur settings for this idea.If I understand right TPs are 1,20,40; BE is 1 ; Lockinpip is -3 what are the TSL and distbuy/sell and refpip values?
What do you think, with these setting it not gonna knock out the SL in -3pips too many times?
I gonna backtest this idea as well.

Hello,

which settings you are using in your backtest because whatever settings i am using the october made huge loss with this EA.

Ok, so I am testing two newish ideas, and will post results here dailyā€¦both ideas have the same basic principle, but different ways of going about it. These are running on demo accounts with the ECN broker, whose average spread is 0.6 pips

  1. I have on this one with the TPs at 1, 18, and 36 pips. The lockinpips is -3 after BE is +1 pip, so it moves at the same time the first 1 pip TP is hit. The trailing stops and maxSL have settings greater than the TP and possible daily range, so they are just set aside to not be used (this goes for both ideas). The distbuy\sell and ref pip values are the same at 3 pips above and 1 pip below, so the reference candle size doesnā€™t change (same for both ideas, also).

  2. I have this second idea running with the TP all at 20 pips, and am using the maxSL at -3 pips, and have the lockinpips and BE at very high settings, so they wonā€™t be used. No trailing stops, either. There is no initial SL, as the maxSL is the SL and wonā€™t change from -3 pips. I am testing this to see if the SL gets hit so many times to make it a loser, or if the 20 pip TP will be enough to be profitable.

So, starting with yesterday, strat #1 has both TPs hit twice, from bouncing, with 4 losses of -3 SL for net of 96 pips.
Strat #2 has itā€™s TP hit twice, with 5 losses for net of 75 pips.

Today, no TP hit yet, some losses, will edit this post as the day goes on with results.

UPDATE: Today, on strat #1, 3 losses and hit 20 and 40 TPs once, net 48 pips. Strat #2 will have to be a weekly update, because I canā€™t see the results from here, but today probably had many losses, and 1 hit on the three 20 pip TPs

The only suggestion I have is to be able to designate the trade size for each of the three trades. I would like to have 0.01 lots for two trades, and 0.06 for the 1 TP trade, so it really balances out the -3 sl for the other two trades, for my testing.

hi

I think this is a good idea to set different lot sizes also if we could set the number of the pending orders would be nice as well( e.g. 2 trades only insted of 3 or only one with a true/false switch).
Which ECN broker are you using for demo pipcompounder? I tried fxopen but it gives false prices for e.g. EUR/USD sometimes 7-8 pips different from the other brokers price. strangeā€¦

I am trying to demo traders wayā€¦it does seem to have good spreads to take advantage of my ideas, but it also seems to be not opening all three trades each time, a problem I never had with Finfx.

So, the strat#2 idea is instant garbageā€¦it hit the maxSL about 20 times yesterday, which far outweighed the one win.
I changed it to have two trades have TP of 1.5 pips, and the one other trade to have 40 pip TP. This way, everytime the trade hits lockinpip SL of -3, it is exactly BE on the account, and then when the price really breaks away, it has opportunity to hit TP. Weā€™ll see if the 1.5 TP gets hit all the time, which is essential to this working.
Strat #1 remains the same settings, and after 3 losses today, has hit first 20 pip TP, so net 8 pips, the 40 TP trade is still open.

EDIT: 40 TP HIT!!!

strat#1 has hit both 18 and 36 TP, with three losses, so net 42 pips, and strat#2 hit itā€™s 40 pip TP, losses show as 0 :Dā€¦Strat#2 would have 40 pips every day this week, and twice on Tuesday, so I like it a lot.
Strat #1 is ok, itā€™s just that it still sustains a small loss each time it closes at SL, and those add upā€¦the demo account is staying just above BE.

Today was pretty boring, the reference candle was relatively long, did get 20 pip TP on strat#1, but no 40 pips, and Franceā€™s credit downgrade just brought the price back inside the ref candle, again.

About beating the spreadā€¦some people view the spread as a necessary expense to broker a trade, and donā€™t care too much about how big it is as long as itā€™s less than 3 pips, because they know theyā€™ll make it back and then some with a reasonable TP. But they keep trading with a 1:1 to 1:3 Risk\Reward, without really thinking about what that spread really means. When the spread is 3 pips, and you want 40 pips in the bag, the price has to move 43 pips from your entry to get there. If you find a broker with a spread of 0.5 pips, then it only has to move 40.5 pips. Now, thatā€™s just an example to help you understand this next part, which is the golden goose, Iā€™m trying to create.
What if you could trade without the trade ever losing? As if the broker only allowed the trade to stay open in positive territory, but as soon as it could go negative, it was closed, so no losses ever happened? Of course, this is fantasy, but I am very close to replicating that very idea. I wonā€™t ever be able to say I canā€™t lose any trade, but the possiblity is much smaller than ever before. Basically my P\L statement will look like some BE trades and a few 40 pip TP.
I am refining my idea, which is not new, to try to get as close to no loss, while allowing all opportunity for full TP.
Currently, I am seeing how small a loss I can get the lockinpips with a negative setting, while getting as small a TP as possible to cover the cost of the lossā€¦the smaller these distances from the entry price, the more successful this will be.
right now I have strat #2 to try this, with -3 lockinpips, two trades at 1.5 pip TP, and third trade at 40 pip TP. Spread is 0.00-0.6, so the price only has to move 2.1 pips to hit the first 1.5 pip TP, which is more likely than if I had a 3 pip spread broker, which would mean the price would have to move 4.5 pips, far less unlikely, and the negative pips would have to be farther away, which means a perpetual crisis. I would rather have 0.0 spread and pay comission only, but nobody offers that, if they did, I would almost never be able to lose, because I would have the SL at BE on every trade.
I am going to try to shrink the lockinpips until the EA stops trading and also the TP of the first two trades, then weā€™ll see how good it gets. :smiley:

Hello Pipcompounder,
Your idea seems fantastic. But I must point out that the commission that you pay should also be considered as spread because that is also a constant loss that you must overcome. My ECN broker charges me 0.7$ for a 0.1 lot which is equivalent to a 0.7 pip spread. the actual spread is 0.8 pips which makes the total loss
1.5$ (or 1.5pips) for a 0.1lot.

Anyways, I am following your trade ideas and will be backtesting them.

I have modified the EA to add three different lot sizes as you had requested. Pls backtest and let us know optimum settings that you discover. I will also try to optimise.

Safe trading.
London Breakout v1-3-3.zip (4.9 KB)

Oh man!!! thanks again so much!! You have been so helpful, crisscross. Yes, I will put this to test right awayā€¦Iā€™m going to try 1.5X1.0 the lots for the two trades with 1 pip TP, and have the lockinpips as close to what will allow another trade to open, I think -2.4 pips would be nice, that would mean I would have an extra 0.6 of profit, which would cover the commission, making it a truly no loss, risk free trade.
The commission is OK to me, because I want the price to have to move as small a distance as possible to achieve a risk free trade, so the smaller the spread the betterā€¦the commission doesnā€™t affect how far the price has to go to get past broker limitations, which are the spread and the minumum distance a pending order can be placed from current price, which is 1 pip.

Todayā€™s action has little to report now, as everybody is awaiting the outcome of a big EU meeting, which will bring a very big breakout. Greece did get bailed out yesterday, but France then had their credit dinged just hours later.

Hi guys, you have done some reall great work here. Genius about the loss free trades.
I have a question if you donā€™t mind.

Your new strategy how do you keep opening trades as my ea only places two trades at 09:00 am uk time.

Plus how many hours do you have in your setting for keeping the trades open.

Cheers,

Jonny

I put my end trades time at 23 hours, personallyā€¦the EA should only have two sets of orders, which donā€™t change.

Today has 40 pip TPā€¦yipee.

Pipcompounder. What a settings you are using and lot size in the new EA when a broker is not a ECN broker? What are the best setting to minimize loss and have better profits. Thanks