$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

Thanks pipcompounder for reply , yes I am looking at forward testing also , prob easiest and more accurate , just getting itchy feet to trade I guess :slight_smile:

this is why we testā€¦my strat seems to need more workā€¦

since the ref candle basically grows each time the SL is hit, it grew 10 times in a few hours this morning to where it is over 20 pips away from the first trade entryā€¦back to the drawing boardā€¦

Hey pipcompounder, sorry I havenā€™t spoke up lately, been very busy in life, but have been lurking this strategy and applying it.

I live in mountain time, so i generally apply your strategy in the early 1AM with the EA, then close the orders manually from work 7-10 ours later, monitoring them. Great stuff.

I had a crazy thoughtā€¦ what if the hour 2 candle is bigger than the first candle? then how about make that the new reference candle? or maybe the candle after that? so the EA recreates the orders 20 pips higher or lower than hour 2 or three?

if the market continues to ā€œzigzagā€ it will just be a ranging market that wont really defeat the strategy, just a single trade, similar to the opening candle.

So this gets me thinking furtherā€¦ Instead of a reference candle on the hour, couldnā€™t it be a dynamic high and low for the open? so once a trade falls below the low, or exceeds the High, it becomes the new high/low. An uneducated guess (iā€™m still very new) would tell me that it might actually help the overall profitability on ranging markets when back testing?

Hi all,

Does anyone have better ideas for TP targets? 40 pips seems rather arbitrary.
Perhaps not having a fixed profit target, but a variable one based on fibo/pivot/MA? Will that be hard to program in?

Over the last few days following the new settings I have lots of small losses plus two big losses of 36 pips. Which I donā€™t quite understand could be possible

Yes, I had losses get in there too, and the range was more like 30 pips, so the 40 pip TP didnā€™t get hit.

We just have to keep trying different ideas. I know the price at the end of a given week will have moved at least 30-40 pips away from an end of the reference candle for almost every day, so there is profit potential, Iā€™m just trying to mnimize the lossā€¦maybe a 30 pip TP, since volatility is being reported at record lows, and have the maxSL set at 30 pips for at least a 1:1 Risk\Reward Ratio, and have the trades not reopen, if SL is hit, so that it only loses twice at the most in a given day, then waits for the next day for another chance. This would have been very profitable this week, with only monday having two losses. I was hoping I could get out of allowing the initial SL from being hit, but this may just not be possible to completely eliminate. The reference candle still shows to act as the best breakout area with itā€™s ends acting as support\resistance for the rest of the dayā€¦we want our TP to be hit, not just almost hitā€¦40 pips used to be statistically a very good number, but the moves just are not what they were (I think the continuing Euro crisis and US fiscal cliff talks are major reasons the market is just hanging back). 30 pip TP would have been hit every day this week, from the very ends of the reference candle, so I am personally making that my TP, today looks very good, but TP not hit yet.

Ok so basically my max SL explains the bigger losses. Thx. At the moment I am trying 5/10/20 TP with the same settings as before. Weā€™ll get there pip compounder!! I like the idea of limiting the number of losing trades. Maybe crisscross can helpā€¦

Yep, if we use all our heads, (not just mine, in other words), then we can try to maximize this ideaā€¦BTW 30 pips today, and monday was only one loss, not two like I mistakenly said before, so I will continue this next week, again, itā€™s just one 30 pip TP, max SL at 30 pips, and no trailing, no BE, no lockinpip, refcandlesize will be 1 pip extra on each end, and only one pending order placed on each end for the whole day, in other words the trading hour will be until the end of the next hour. The only suggestion I have to help this idea is if one trade hits TP, to cancel the other pending order for the day.

Ok today was a profitable day. I got +18 pips

30 pips todayā€¦only sell pending order is on.

30 pips yesterday, very late, finally, and 30 pips today, very quicklyā€¦so far, so very goodā€¦no losses this week yetā€¦:smiley:

This is great. I will check my vps later. Hopefully looking forward to a nice 30 pips!! Boom !

Hey Pipccompounder!!

Please post your most recent settings that you are using once again.
Many thanks.

Safe trading to all of you!!

Here is my current and now only settingsā€¦

Distbuy: 30
DistSell: 10
Setrefpip: true
Setrefhigh:30
Setreflow:10
Lockinpip:0
DistBuyAftBE 0
DistSellAftBE 0
TP1:300
TP2:0
TP3:0
TSL1:1000
TSL2:1000
USEMAXSL:True
MAXSL:30
BE:310
SLIPPAGE:100
trading end time is 1 hour after the ref candle ends, so 1 hour and 1 min of re-entering pending orders per day.

I would be interested in adding an option to cancel pending orders if TP1 is hit, so thereā€™s no chance of the opposite orders triggering and possibly creating a loss.

no lots for trades 2 and 3, since I am using a single TP of 30 pips now, no BE, no lockinpips, no trailing stopsā€¦seems like the stone ages were more profitable than all my new ideas.

What we are doing is capturing the most predictable market move that happens once a day, the london open. My prior attempts had become hung up on reentries, and trying to profit the most per day, but instead had losses, as a consequence. Now, I realize when looking back, that the other end of the reference candle from the initial triggered order has still almost never been breached, so just the initial SL is plenty good enough for a high win\loss ratio. Then, it seemed a 40 pip TP was just out of reach of the moves of the market, due to record low volatility, so I just went back and noticed everyday has been pumping out 30 pips for a long time, now. I have the maxSL as 30 pips, so if I lose, it is only once per day (maybe twice very rarely). And then have the patience to allow the next day to come, as the market will inevitably move from point A (end of ref candle) to point B (30 pip TP)ā€¦and by the end of a given week, I should be in good profit.

30 pips a day is enough to become very well offā€¦:smiley:

Hi everyone!

I have a question about two settings of my EAā€¦
What should I put in the London Open Time Hour setting AND Stop Placing Order Hour setting?
I am with OANDA and I am based in Englandā€¦

Thanks a lot!

Today was BE for the day as the buy hit 30 pip SL and sell hit 30 pip TPā€¦tomorrow is NFP!

You have to know what the server time is for the london open on your plateform by looking at the chart, then, choose the same hour as the first hour of the london open, which I believe is 9 am your local time, and use that as the open time settingā€¦your stop placing order hour setting can be anywhere from 2hours to 23 hours after the server time you put in the open time hour setting.

for example, for me, the london open starts at 3am local time, but my servers time is 10am, which is what I put there, and I have the stop placing order hour at 12, which is 2 hours later.

I got 30 pips over night last night. I have back tested looks profitable as is. Although i think some optimising can be done. What about trailing a third after 30 pips hit and moving stop to BE. I was also thinking about trailing by the stop amount. Will report my findingsā€¦ Thanks again

Hi Pipcompunder, i have an idea for you to play with and this idea comes from some very good traders in forex not me.
RISK IS UP TO THE INDIVIDUAL TO DECIDE THIS IS JUST FOR REF
How about Opening 2 trades and splitting risk 70% 30% FOR A TOTAL OF 100% of your risk
If you want to risk 0.5% of your account for 30 pips
So what you do you open 2 orders

First order will be 70% of 0.5% of the account meaning 0.35%

Second order will be 30% of 0.5 % of the account meaning it will be 0.15% risk.

So both order go in to market order 1 has TP @ 30 PIPS
ORDER 2 HAS JUST A JUMPING STOP LOSS maybe Crisscross can help with this, but essentially what it does is every time price pulls away by 30 pips the stop will jump by 30 pips no trailing, much more profitable as allows price space to move.

Of course the Jumping stop loss can be any value you desire.

Think about IT , a move like todays could have made you profitable and will allow you to control risk 100%.
This i guarantee if implanted will have major impact on profitability of your system! and at the same time minimizing draw down!

Safe trading

today, the NFP gave us another 30 pips, so this week has netted 120 pips, with yesterday having the only loser, but then a winner to make it BE.

mostwantedpip- thatā€™s an idea to tryā€¦you can do a variation now of that by having TP1 say, 29 pips, and TP2 something like 40-60 pips, and have your lockinpips at +29ā€¦is this what your talking about?..if you want it to jump again another 30 pips at 60 pips positive, you would have to have that programedā€¦IMO, price retraces at least 40% back on a move, so I donā€™t know if that would produce results or notā€¦this week has been the first really trending week in a long timeā€¦wish price moved like this year-roundā€¦:smiley: