$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

pipcompounder - Yes indeed! Thanks for a very good week! I missed getting the GBP trade in this morning because it shot up so fast, so I didn’t take the loss. Rode the EUR on up. It’s more than just PIPs, it’s validating a method that for the moment seems to be very consistent, so thanks for sharing and staying with us who are still trying to learn.
Going a step further…I suppose I shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and I understand the pattern, but “WHY” is it working? What’s the psychology behind what’s going on?

what is going on is a bunch of traders are arriving at their trading desks in NY and at the same time important news is on tap to be released between 8 and 8:30am EST almost everyday. The London traders are still at their desks, too, so we have the biggest money at the controls, and they start making their moves. At 15 minutes in, everybody sees what’s been happening, and when a trend starts, everybody starts jumping on board. We try to get in as early as possible, but also in the right established direction. Sometimes this results in a loss before a win. There’s some other things that play into this, but it’s really about timing.

thanks! how do I make it work? Do you have one for London?

The clock works for london too, it’s just a countdown timer until the closing of the next bar, works on different timeframes etc

Oh ok thanks. I still don’t know how to install it… Could you help?
Thanks

Hi Pipscompounder
Are you still using 12 for the StopPlacingOrderHour ? This would mean that if you are long but not really moving and then lets say that the stop loss for the long is hit on the 13:00 bar and then price continues to drop, then there would be no short order placed at this time to compensate for the loss on the long. Am I correct here in my thinking?

That is my stopplacing order.
Remember the EA places both buy and sell pending orders, so if the buy SL is hit the sell entry order is still there, waiting.
Now, if both SLs are hit, then the EA will only place the pending orders again if

  1. the price is within the ref candle
  2. the time is before 12-server time.

The EA needs a mod to cancel the opposite pending order when TP is hit, we could use TP3, so if anyone wants to scale out, it doesnt just cancel the opposite pending order on TP1. And also to close all orders of all kinds, pending and active, when the week ends on Friday. I believe crisscross is working on this, and we thank him again here for all his hard work and contributions.

Ah… of course, the orders are placed at the reference candle. Duhhh :slight_smile: Sometimes you really need to think 3D. Thanks for the quick response.

Yeah, you put it into programfiles/metatrader/experts/indicators, then you just restart metatrader and add it as you would any other indicator

I have found another possibly profitable pair ime combination…USD\JPY on 1HR with a ref candle of the first full hour of the NY open, using 25 pip TP.

Today’s London was rough with buy loss, and sell not looking too good.

The NY has an open buy, but is wallowing around…there must be news or bank holidays, not much going on, yet.

Hi pipcompounder and all others :slight_smile:

First off: Let me say how great you have been sharing and supporting your strategy here, I think I speak for all of us reading this thread thoroughly when I say you are an awesome person!

I have been following this thread for a couple of days now and read through the whole development of the strategy. I think this strategy has great potential over the long run with ever so slight adjustments from time to time (I’m guessing every 2-3 weeks).

I am a full-time trader from germany with plenty of programming experience for over 12 years. Also I started automated trading and the development of EA’s 5 years ago and have worked with several traders mostly from the UK on different things in this field.

Now after reading this great idea I would like to contribute my skills to this project and I hope we can fully automate and maybe propell it to the next level together :slight_smile:

I will start working on a prototype programmed in Meta Trader 5 for now and will roughly base it on the great work of crisscross (a job REALLY well done btw :slight_smile: ) Also I’m thinking about realizing this strategy automated for NinjaTrader but I don’t think many here could work with that!?

As I do this full-time we can adapt quickly and incorporate new functionality onthefly I think.


I really like your step going back a bit and focussing on the basics on the strategy which includes one trade only at a certain time. For now I will only include this one feature into the EA and possibly develop it from the ground up to be easily used with other pairs and timeframes. What do you guys think?


Sorry about just waltzing into a well established conversation, I hope my contributions will be accepted :slight_smile:

Jonathan

First idea to further automate things:
We could calculate an average figure from the… Let’s say last 3 weeks that represents the average price difference between the reference candle and the high/low of the whole day. Based on this we might be able to figure out automatically what the best TP at the moment might be.

Also I am thinking about doing something with the news calendar, not sure what exactly yet though :wink:

Let me know your thoughts.

Welcome, and thanks for your interest. Any help, ideas are welcome. Just so you know, my broker only uses MT4, so I won’t be able to use anything that is MT5. You’re welcome to develop those for others who do use those other plateforms, of course. Do you think you can make an attempt at the NY idea with 15 minute candles?

Hm, thats too bad! The thing with MT5 is that the backtesting is way better and provides a lot more possibilities in analyzing the results (let alone testing various pairs at the same time).

I guess I could develop MT4 and MT5 simultaniously so we can backtest in MT5 and trade in MT4 :slight_smile:


Edit:
Sure thing regarding the NY 15min.

Sounds good, as backtesting in MT4 seems to be something like “eat the fish, but spit out the bones”.

Thanks for your interest, again.

YAY!

Our NY 15 minute candle buy has finally drifted upto the 40 pip TP, the only trade today to do so. This also caused the London sell to hit SL.
USDJPY is sitting after a sell loss, still open at +5 pips.

The markets are flat because the Fed is going to speak in the near future.

Happy to say that I had the same results.

Hi pipcompounder,

Firstly, thank you for sharing your strategy, ideas and results here. I have been following for several weeks.

I am based in the UK. The London Breakout time is fine but the New York open time you quote does not make any sense to me! The NY stock exchange opens at 14.30 GMT. (EST is GMT-5). Some posters talk of the results of the NY open before it HAS opened!

I am testing the EA at the moment and the London open (8.00 GMT) is 10.00 with my provider so I have set the EA appropriately.

Could you please clarify the NY open time you are using as the 8.00 EST 15min candle does not make any sense when converted to GMT and adjusting for my provider.

Many thanks.

DrB.

8am NY time? Rather than 9:30?

Exactly!

pipcompounder’s post #453 confirms. “We use one hour candles for London open, and 15 minute candle, 8:00-8:15 EST, for NY open”.

DrB.