$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

Glad to see you doing thing like that
An 8hEDT candle worked as well. 87 pips so far for 3 positions
There is a problem. NY activites so intense. AdvancedVSA high for all 4 candles before NY open and even after 2 hours later on. Aggregated, we have got a 6 hour candle for placing all sell and long stops. About 70 pip distance. SL like that not viable

Yes, it has been a while hasn’t it…I’ve been busy so not been posting much recently…

I see, some interesting ideas that you have here, and it is interesting to see how the idea/strategy changes thoughtout its life. You are right of course, the RR of the first trade isn’t good, however, statistically, it might be a winner in the long term, you would need to test it out mechanically to see. Especially, if it re-entered every time price fell back into the candle range.

I understand what you are saying about the orders effectively being OCO orders, but how are you deciding the lot size for each individual order. Are you risking say, 2% across the three buy orders (so about 0.7% per trade), and another 2% across all the sell orders , or do you do something else slightly different?

Right now, I am trading each order with 0.01 lot size, smallest that I can. As account increases to some point that makes sense to increase lot size, I will keep the lot size the same for each trade across the board. Simple.

Hi guys.
Thanks for your replies.
Pipcompounder,do you consider the size of the candle
before you place the trades.example,if the range is
large or small.Thanks

I did at first, but when I backtested it, the results showed better profit from ignoring the size of the reference candle. The strategy works because that reference candle establishes the support\resistance levels, and the breakout of those levels go far enough to profit, if not one direction, then the other.

makes sense.thanks

Hi Pipcompounder,

Thanks for the interesting strategy, I just have two quick questions. In the opening post you said on the buy side you used a SL as the low of the candle or 30 pips whichever is less, though I was wondering is this rule the same for the sell side?

If the high of the candle + 3 pips is greater than 30 pips away do you set the SL at 30 pips away or the high + 3 pips.

Also do you take your spread into account for the TPs?

Very interesting system, when I get the chance I might begin some number crunching with my Excel/VBA backtesting hobby. Will post results.

@pipcompounder: Are you using trailing stops of 20pips for all 6 trades, or is the trailing stop the same as the reference candle range?

Buy trades were a loss this morning, the Sell just almost hit 20 pip TP, we’ll see what happens, I thought it was hit earlier, so I edited this post after I saw the position was still open.

Tankwolf…I no longer use the 30 pip part of the SL, I just have my SL be the same price as the entry price of the opposite pending order, so they trigger simultaneously.
The TPs are set from the entry order price, regardless of spread.

Interjon…I use 20 pip trailing stops on all 6 trades. The trades with 20 pip TP may not get a chance to use it, but I put it on all the trades, anyways.

Yesterday’s sell trade after bouncing around all afternoon, finally hit SL, I had come within 1 pip of the 20 pip TP, so yesterday turned into rather large losses. Again, yesterday would have had only the buy loss if I had the 7 pip+ = BE SL thing going, with pending orders reentered.

This morning saw the buy trades go up to 40 pip TP, and take out trailing SL at about 24 pips, for about 80 pip total gain.
Cancelling the sell side pending orders, so I don’t have to manage them into the market’s close for the weekend. Looks like it wouldn’t trigger anyways-- very sideways, ranging market.

Good start to this week with about 80 pips in the bag, 20+40+20ish pips, on the sell side.

Nice system ppipcompounder.
I will try to make an EA for this system. Might take some time. Hopefully by end of this week.

Hi pipcompounder,

Can you please explain your SL strategy a bit more? I do not understand how you can have a fixed stop loss (“an initial SL same as the opposite direction’s stop entry order”), as well as a trailing stop (“with a 20 pip Trailing stop”). To my understanding, a SL is either fixed or a trailing SL, or is there something I do not understand? :slight_smile:

Cheers,
Sascha

Sascha,
The initial stop is placed where the opposite orders are opened (effectively creating OCO orders). If the trades move into profit by 20 pips the first trade will close and the stops for the remaining 2 orders are then trailed by 20 pips.

J

This morning has basically all three trades at 20 pips, so 60+ pips for today, since second TP wasn’t quite reached.

Crisscross1983…thanks for your interest, if you have any questions, feel free to post them or PM me.

Sasha…let me answer your question a little more indepth. True, the SL I set at the other end of the candle is designed to allow the price to freely retrace within the candle, unless it triggers the opposite order, which then cancels the orders that were opened first. The trailing stop doesn’t actually start happening until the price has already moved as many pips in profit as the trailing stop is, in other words it doesn’t start trailing until it is equal to BE. It really is useful for the two trades with TP of 40 and 60 pips, in case, like this morning, the price retraces past the first 20 pip TP area, then we at least capture those, while also keeping the chances of loss out of question, as long as the first 20 pip TP is hit.

Pipcompounder,

Thanks for the extra info. I’ve been trialling your methods as well and like the numbers. I’ve also been trying (badly with my limited experience of MT4 programming) to modify an old breakout EA that worked on percentages of the reference candle. I almost have it working using your 20 pip strategy but probably going to leave it to the professionals. I would love to play around with a working EA if you can come across one.

Unfortunately the spread-bet platform I’m trialling on has a fixed trail of 10 pips and can’t be modified. So my results are a little off-centre. But if successful I plan to use on a more flexible platform. Question for you, I’m curious as to how you have been backtesting without an EA. Has it been purely manual? Hats off to you if you are. I tried a manual backtest last night before downtime. Let’s just say my candle blew out before the reference one!

Keep it up.

Thanks for your interest…yes manual, visual backtesting is very, very time consuming. It takes me about an hour to look at just one month. This method is pretty easy to visually see the outcome, since you can see how far the price moved after the breakout from the reference candle.

This morning was total loses, as the market just ranged around. Good example where a BE at 7 pips positive, with re-entry of pending orders would have helped. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Do you guy notice the shift to Asian session? Recently, it eaten up EUR’ ADR so London did not have much room to move. NY also suffered, almost ranging. IMHO, that why losses occurred

Hi there,

New follower here :slight_smile:

Just wanted to clarify the time frame of the reference candle.

Are we looking at 8am-9am london time? or the 9am-10am london time?

I’m still very new so please bear with me :slight_smile: