$* Statistical London Breakout Strategy *$

Hi Killerno & Mostwantedpip
I have found the error on BE and TS and have rectified it. I backtested it only for a week and it seems to be working ok. You guys do your testing and report. I will continue testing and report back. I have attached the latest version (Still v1.0) in post no. 42.

[QUOTE=killerno;403134]Hi crisscross,

I am testing it live as well now.

HI Killerno,
I hope you are trading small lotsizes. I must reiterate here as i have seen numerous times on Babypips that I bear no responsibility for the EA malfunctioning. It is just a help and must be used by anyone at their own risk and responsibility.

Safe Trading

hi crisscross,

thanks for the quick reply. I going to try the new version now. I am trading right now with demo account and microlots. I never ā€œtrustā€ in an EA it is just a big help, but I am always rechecking everything manually.
I am going to give you feedbacks about it and we can improve it.
Again thanks for your great job.

edit: BE and trailing looks alright now thanks. another issue as you mentioned that the EA not always openening e.g. 3 buy pending order when trade context was busy, but you gonna fix it so it gonna be ok.

Wow! you guys have been busyā€¦thanks so much for your participationā€¦

CrissCrossā€¦thanks so much for the EA, I shall test it out, as I am sure everyone else will beā€¦It seems with your current settings, it should follow the rules, so weā€™ll just have to test it, of course, to see what happens. Thanks again!

Mostwanted pipsā€¦your chart is very good, thatā€™s what we want, the only thing I didnā€™t see is that on the bottom of the candle we want the sell stop and the opposite trade to be 1 pip lower than the bottom, just in case the price decides to use that for support and bounce away.

I will appreciate everybody testing and reporting results here, too. thanks again.

This morning I got 20 +10+10 pips on the buy, hopefully everybody else did the same.

Ok, now to address some concernsā€¦I understand some are worried about when the reference candle is small (less than 15 pips) or large (greater than 50 pips). What you need to remember is this is statistical, that means, while we always take the risk of price hitting SL as part of trading, it happens a very small part of the time. When it does happen, the opposite trades usually profit enough to net a profit for the day. Also, now that we have an EA that will allow us to customize a re-entry, which should make the issue of how far away the SL is, very small, because it will be very, very rare that it would be hit at that point. I would venture to guess maybe once or twice a month. What will be fun, is playing with the variables of how far the price should go before the SL is moved to BE, and how far the price should be allowed to retrace into the reference candleā€™s zone before the pending orders are placed. This morning is a good example, as after the price had retraced to hit the trailing stops at about 10 pips positive, it continued down to about 5 pips below the entry point, about 2 pips with the spread. A reentry at this point would have resulted in a full TP, as news has been coming out, all in favor of the Euro, driving the price up. But it would have been very close settings, to achieve this, kinda risky.

Thanks Pipcompounder,

You noticed correctly the 1 missing pip as i did not subtract it from the entry price, but thank you for mentioning it as from now on i will be factoring in the 1 pip :).

I think i made 60 pips all together today. As the price went up plus 29 pips and retraced back and stopped my 2 (40-60) orders with the trailing stop,. So first buy order hit its T/P, second and third order had there 20 pip trailing stop loss activated before price retraced and both of the orders ended up in 20 pip profit i.e all in all 20+20+20=60.
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
22471082 2012.10.01 11:20 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.28763 1.28780 1.29363 2012.10.01 11:31 1.28769 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
22471023 2012.10.01 11:20 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.28763 1.28774 1.29163 2012.10.01 11:31 1.28769 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
22470908 2012.10.01 11:20 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.28763 1.28769 1.28963 2012.10.01 11:31 1.28769 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
22462055 2012.10.01 05:02 buy stop 0.01 eurusd 1.28934 1.28544 1.29102 2012.10.01 05:06 1.28150 cancelled
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15
Closed P/L: 0.15

.One question to pip compounder did you cancel todayā€™s sell orders since we are in tidy profit?

Thanks

I keep my sells still open. With the news, I donā€™t think theyā€™ll trigger this time, but because of historically profitable reasons, I keep them open, until late in the evening, I think the EA will work good for this part.

Fair enough!

I am slighty confused as to why i ended up with 60 pips and you only had 40 pips. You worte that you made 20+10+10. What did i do wrong or why is my result different to yours?:33:

I had three entries, of course, with 20, 40, and 60 TPā€¦all with 20 pip trailing stopsā€¦So the price only went up about 32 pips before coming back downā€¦32-20=12pips-2 pip spread=10 pips for the two open trades, the first hit TP, of course. Iā€™m not sure why yourā€™s would be any differentā€¦to get the other two trades to finish 20 pips profit, you would have to have a 10 pip trailing stop.

Crisscrossā€¦some initial thoughts about the EAā€¦

Is it possible to move the time the EA places the pending orders to as close as possible, maybe only 1 minute or less, before the reference candle ends? The reason why is sometimes the price is still making new highs\lows, and we donā€™t want a bad entry before the candle even closes. Sometimes, this may simply be unavoidable, but we must minimize the possibility. Itā€™s ok that it closes all pended\open orders 5 minutes before the reference candleā€™s close, I think.

hi pipcompounder,

just modify this line in the ea:
if((TimeHour(TimeCurrent())==London_Open_Time_hour)&&(TimeMinute(TimeCurrent())==56)) //Time to open new Orders
put 59 instead of 56 at the end.

regards

Thanks, Iā€™ll do that.

hey guys

can i have the ea plz thanks

pipcompounder great job with the 2nd contract iā€™ll try it tomorrow on a daily basis today i traded the first contract still lol thank you once again
you may have discovered the holy grail because of its consistency

Just click on the name of the EA and it will download, very easy. If you have further question, please PM Crisscross, to keep the thread clean. thanks.

Ok guys, so I went back and visually backtested the month of September, just to see the maximum potential profit in pips. Now, this was done as if the EA had been configured with perfect settings, so in other words, this wonā€™t be attainable in real life, but it would be nice to get as close as possible. Pips for September was 2406. Now, as you probably think, the next task is to find the best balance of how far the price can go before the SL is moved to BE and how far the price should retrace back into the reference candle ā€œzoneā€ before pending orders are re-placed. We could be aggressive and have minimal settings, because when I was backtesting, I noticed the 20 pip TP was hit many times in some sessions, which may have outweighed a few more losses. Or we could be conservative, but miss great profit runs, which usually have small retracements. Hopefully backtesting can give us good starter answers.

If you want to see an incredible day, check out 9/13/12ā€¦301 pipsā€¦this would be a good day to figure out settings from, I think.

[I]Crisscross1983[/I]
Can I use this EA on an ECN broker as well(over there first have to open a position and after set up TP,SL).
If not could you please modify it to be useable on that broker as well.

[I]Pipcompounder[/I]
I am going to do few backtests with different setups. Gonna share the results later on.

[QUOTE=killerno;403378][I]Crisscross1983[/I]
Can I use this EA on an ECN broker as well(over there first have to open a position and after set up TP,SL).
If not could you please modify it to be useable on that broker as well.

Yes Killerno, You can use it with an ECN broker. The EA opens positions first without putting in SL, TP and then later modifies it. But to confirm try it today with minute lots (if LIVE) and let us all know.

Hi Pipcompounder,
Few open queries/suggestions:

  1. What if the reference bar is too big (say more than 30 pips). Should we keep a max SL? If ref bar height more than 30 pips then SL on both pending orders should be 30 pips.
  2. How long should the pending orders be kept open? The current version keeps pending order open until 55 minutes past London open the next day. and keeps placing pending orders until midnight in case price moves back to reference zone. Some definite time zones have to be found?
  3. How much into the ref zone should new pending orders be placed?
  4. Instead of BE after 10 positive pips, we could lock in 1 pip/2 pip profit. this might ensure higher profitability. have to check out.

What do u think?

I am in Asia so i think better i just sit and watch the chart without any EA. Anyway thank you for great system. I use it as supplement beside my own

@crisscross: i regretted many times for doing 1 pip.Price usually visits the entry level before going real. The idea of pipcompouding system, i think about gut. Seeing both orders hit and loss twice are painful on a ranging day
So i guess Wednesday is not viable for the system because it is most ranging of the week. Still loving trading on that day, placing toward one direction

Hi crisscross,

thanks for the info, I can see in the code that TL,SL set up later. I am going to try it on ECN soon.
Another ideas:

  • is it possible to add an extra function to the EA, that if it is reach suppose X profit or X pips plus, EA will close all running trade. And after if price goes back to the reference candle zone EA will place new pending order as it is doing now.
  • another one, we could set up where to move SL from the BE point after given pips has been hit in BE parameter.
    e.g. BE= 5 SLMOVE=-2 or 2 after 5pips positive EA moves the SL -2 pips or +2pips from/to the BE level.

the min/max ref candle set up and a min pips that price has to go back to the ref. candle zone before place pending orders again are also good ideas.
thanks mate

This morning was a tough one, as the price triggered the buy, then retraced to take out the BE SL, three times for meā€¦then it didnā€™t quite make it back far enough into the reference candle zone to re-open orders, so the price ran away with no trades. So, not much profit, but no loss, either. The spread is what makes this very challenging on the buy side, because we use the bid chart. I currently have the price to move SL to BE at 4 pips, so my spread is covered, but still very aggressive. I could have had it at 10 pips and this morning would have given the same result. Did this happen to you guys, BTW?

CrissCrossā€¦to answer your questions in orderā€¦

  1. I think we should not worry about bars that are big or small. I have seen a trade barely trigger, go the opposite way within less than a pip of hitting SL, and come right back for a very large move. The opposite trade is what takes care of us, should the SL be hit. It seems the SL will be moved to BE much more often, than a price getting close the the initial SL.
  2. When I backtested September, as posted previously, I noticed some of the trades profited right before the reference candle, and greatly added to the profitability, so I think the current settings are good for that. The only thing I did to my EA was modify the time the entries are first made to just 1 minute before the reference candle closes.
  3. This morning as well as when I was visually backtesting makes me think there should be no buffer for re-entering the pending orders. If anything, the EA needs to be able to set the orders and execute them very fast, should the price even touch the reference candle zone. Yesterday was a good example for everybody to look at for this. I believe even hours after the first trades had closed in profit, two more opportunities for reentry for full 60 pip TP, and later 20 pip TP were there, just barelyā€¦If this happened for someone, please post the results.
  4. I donā€™t know if that would workā€¦if you watch price action, it goes back 2 pips for every 3 pips, it seems, to catch things like this. The idea of the BE is to keep a trade that doesnā€™t hit the first 20 pip TP from going all the way to initial SL, if we can help it.

The problem I see is that the BE SL is outside of the reference candle zone, so price retraces and barely touches it, and runs away, without any trades going with it. One possible answer is to have the SL moved to -10 pips, which could mean some losses. Another is having the BE SL be put at same exact price as the end of the reference candle, which means losing the spread every time the SL is hit on the buy side, the sell side would have to have the BE SL actually negative the same amount as the spread. Itā€™s like we need the opposite results. Hopefully backtesting can answer these questions.