[B]USD/CAD Ratio: 1.77
[/B][B]Signal: Bearish[/B]
[B]Currency[/B] [B]Last Week[/B] [B]Present*[/B] [B]% Long[/B] [B]% Change in Positions Outstanding[/B] [B]Signal[/B] USDCAD [B]1.96[/B] [B]1.77[/B] 64% 2.73% Bearish
[B]USDCAD – [/B]The incredible consistency of the USDCAD’s positive SSI reading seems to be fading; but is this trend leading to a possible flip? This past week, the pair’s ratio cooled to a 1.77 from the 1.96 reading reported last week, even though underlying price action has held to a 200-point range. What’s more, this modest congestion is still set within a much broader range between 0.9800 and 1.0350 that has dominated price action since last November – which happens to coincide with sentiment falling back from extremes on the level of 6.00 and 7.00 to recent extremes that top out around 2.00. Until the market can find direction from this congestion zone, sentiment readings are likely to hold these historically mild levels. From the details of the report we can see USDCAD trading has been more active than its major counterparts. Since yesterday, long positions have dropped 11.1% though they are only 1.5% weaker since last Thursday. Short trades grew 15.1% from Wednesday but were also 11.2% stronger than last week. Overall open interest is only 0.2% greater on the week and 3.3% above the monthly average. As a contrarian indicator the SSI points to further losses from USDCAD; but it’s historically mild levels and the underlying’s range should prompt caution.