[B]NERYS[/B] Actually the best single day in a month trading purely on tech’s… go read ‘beginers disaster’s’ thread for Thursday night Asian, Friday London and New York. Makes you think that big money uses the news (good or bad) to its own advantage to push PA to given levels. Surely not? LOL
Halba, when I read your question I think you are under the impression that you got cheated or tricked? Please clarify.
Really? The Asian session was at low tech levels and within a fairly predictable range and you could see smart money buying up the dips. The trigger is usually a break below or above the range (in this case below). That quickly pushed PA to critical mass and a breakout of range to the long side quickly insued. At the breakout I went long. If you can learn to read whats actually going on behind the chart you will improve your trading expodentially.
Then perhaps tone down the aggressiveness. If what you’re doing is working good for you buddy. I don’t even understand what is your problem, are you even reading my comments?
Yes technicals show you where price is right now, fundamentals tell you whether to sell or buy. If you’re ignoring everything apart from technicals good for you, go for it but don’t you be so blunt about it thinking you’ve found the holy grail, this month is profitable lets see what happens next month. There are a lot more things affecting the price.
EDIT: The “breakout” on friday from 1.3515 to 1.3600 was aided by the IMF ECB lending taking more shape, when a trader sees Dow Jones reporting it what do you think they do. Once that rumor gave eur a push and help it break 1.3550 level comfortably then we got buyers piling on.
It’s not just technicals my friend, its a combination of many things, and you’re missing out on them.
Going back to the original question of being stopped out and then price reversing back towards, and even hitting you profit level is common for most traders. This is a well thought out issue by many traders, and every day you will hear of people expressing there disappointment, such as “I got stopped out by a few pips and then price rocketed past my take profit zone”
I’m not the exception here, and nor is anybody else. I’ve personally had trades that have exceeded my SL by 0.1 pips (1 point), the smallest incremental move possible. It is a kick in the teeth when this happens, and it makes you feel a little bad, especially when you only place one or two trades per day, so that losing trade plays a big role on the daily results that you were hoping for.
One problem I have noticed that new traders are failing to understand, and this is especially true for MT4 users, is that there is indeed a difference between the ask and bid price, hence the spread amount in pips. MT4 only ever shows one price feed, such as the ask price for the financial instrument traded, such as Forex pairs or commodities. There fore you need to take this into account when placing your Stop Loss from the ask price data which is being displayed, this is because your trade is being closed at the Bid price, hence the opposite.
I know of one trader who was really good at his analysis, and got his entries correct more times than not, yet he kept getting stopped out by less than 3.0pips…This was down to him not taking the difference between the ask and bid price into consideration. So, if your always using just the ask price data feed or bid price data feed for your analysis, then don’t forget that you need to derive your stop loss from the opposite ask/bid price that you originally opened the trade with.
Second to this, as already mentioned by other users of this thread, is that you entries need to be as tight as possible. This is easier said than done and can also cause problems with the trades performance.
At face value the thought of entering a trade early, and hence at a better price, seems very positive, it sounds like a ‘must’ for all traders. However, entering too early before a clear signal has been provided can be very dangerous. Sure, you now need less pips to aim for in your take profit to hit your desired risk:reward, but have you entered too early to tell if the trade is actually turning in your desired direction.
The other side of this argument is to wait and enter the trade at a less favorable price, but with the satisfaction that the price of the financial instrument your are following is more than likely turning into your desired direction. This ‘filter’ of waiting for confirmation that a trade is turning will get you in the correct direction more times than not, but your filling at a less favorable price.
You need to weigh up the pro’s and con’s of entering at a more favorable, yet ‘risky’ price, or waiting for more confirmation that the trade is turning into the direction you want it to and entering the trade at a more unfavorable price.
Unfortunately, and I sympathies with what I’m about to say, this comes down to experience and each trading style will have its own statistics based on the two arguments above. I can imagine your now thinking to yourself ‘but how do i enter a better more favorable price’, this my friend is where expanding your knowledge comes to light, there are ways to improve entries, and also exit prices for that matter. But only you can find the correct combination of ‘tools’ to use which agree with your own trading style.
There will always be pro’s and con’s to altering sections of your trading analysis, your job is to find out what changes outweigh the con’s, and thats where the pips can be found 
Good luck, and stick with it!
That’s just pushing it back to the 50 level the figure at 3600 as expected
Now what to do on Saturday afternoon? Klicking on a thread what I thought would be a 1 minute read. Now I am still reading after 30 minutes. Great read eremarket and I go also with RC. I mean the explanation of fundis and techs.
I mean, I “trade” or better say invest since a couple of years in the commodity markets. I am in no means a big player, but probably bigger than anyone on fx who trades with nano lots. Just to explain how I think.
If I buy something for long, say pd, then I look for fundamentals. But not on the daily chart. I do this on the monthly! Or weekly! Overall picture for years, not hours. So lets say I went long and after a few years that thing hits a high and a correction draws on the screen. Do I panic now? For sure not! I just look for the opportunity to buy more and extent my position, if I expect to run further up. Or I look for going short if my overall target is hit. Albeit not with panic. I look for the best entry.
Anyways, in both cases I have time and money more than anything else. I am not sitting there, glued to a minute screen and looking to sell at the best second of the day. I have already the asset and I look for VERY LOW risk. Why gambling my profits of years away? Makes no sense, no? So, fundamentals also play a role, but in a time frame of weeks or months! What is going on intraday is almost techs and panic reactions. No big pocket in this industry buys or sells big stuff in a matter of minutes. I guess most of them still use their phone to give the orders to their secretary.
Plus then regarding fundis I said already anywhere else that the interest rate is a big key fundamental, but after that all other is more I’d say the sub important stuff. Why? Because big instistutions look for carry trades and it has also to do with equities. Won’t roll that out here.
Just wanted to say that if somebody has already plenty of assets he doesn’t need to make a quick buck. He looks for super less risky opportunities. And this takes time. And you bet that all big institutions, those who move price, have already more than enough! Plus then it’s easy for them also to move the price to some close stops to trigger what eremarket wrote about. I read anywhere it could even move the price a hundred pips away. Which is not unlikely particular in those volatile weeks like now. Just the fiber has a 14 day average range of 164 pips these days. 100 pips is less than a day in range. Peanuts for big pockets!
I apologise if my post seemed ‘aggressive’ it was not my intention. Yes I’ve read your posts and you are stating that the reason price did what it did was because of news. I beg to differ. Smart money will use news and other techniques (gapping, etc) to push price where they already want it to go. I realise that 90% of retail has no clue or understanding of this… you might try reading up on VSA and how smart money trades I’m sure Hog won’t mind if I copy and paste his book upload. Not the best book but will give you the basics. tradethetruth.com Also there are two good threads currently running… eremarket’s and ICT.
Why have you got such a hard time grasping the idea that news was the catalyst? Trying running ransquawk or Thomson Reuters while trading you will suddenly find out a whole new dimension to trading. Ever since IMF ECB lending rumors started the eur was going for higher highs. The breakout was kick started by the headline, broke to 13600 where I shorted it and came back down where it had to be from a technical point of view.
Read it again over you don’t seem to understand that news initiate something, but as I said once the 1.3550 was broken comfortably thanks to the rumor we got up to 13600 where it got contain and down it went since it was all just a rumor spike.
I find it hilarious that you keep mentioning smart money and their techniques, who said otherwise, that spike took hell of a lot of stop losses of small retailers on it’s way up, I wasn’t one of them because I knew why that spike is happening.
You still don’t get it do you, what is actually the difference between my and your view. Yours is that it was pure technicals? I can only laugh at that, We’ve seen tons of rumor insipired spikes in the euro recently, last memorable being berlusconi resignation will he or won’t he. That Friday spike looked exactly like a news inspired spike and it got faded like a news inspired spike.
What is your point? Have you even got a point?
Edit: “Smart money[B] will use news[/B]” you even admit in your post that news is the cause, you are contradicting yourself
Okay, NOW who’s aggressive? You get an apology, and come back with that? Nice job there Mother Theresa…
As for trading with the news running, forget about that.
The signals of what is about to transpire are usually visible long before Ransquawk, or Reuters, or Bloomberg, or CNBC, or any other news source announce anything of significance.
I’ll stand by that. Having a play by play announcer hammering at me just serves to tick me off usually.
If I want the latest trade news, SpongeBob Squarpants handles that job just fine.
The funny thing is the rumor you are refering to was from unknown sources but a German official denied anything like that minutes before
May be the move was not “pure” on technicals but was a move everyone was expecting… even me:
if the rumor had been merkel and sarkozy have an affair, the result would have been the same in E/U
and I don’t get something… you shorted it at 1.3600…
why? rumor exhaustion or technicals??
Yes I have a point. Whether you choose to agree is a matter entirely for you. Yes news will often move the market intraday. But and its a BIG but, market makers will use the news to their advantage. Often times you will see a favourable news release and logic would dictate that will push PA higher but no, it declines further. Personally, I take no interest in news save NFP and interest rate announcements. Not because they will change my view of where and why PA is going the way it currently is (intraday) but that it temporarily becomes unpredictable. Give it 20 minutes or so and the ‘hot heads’ are gone and I re-enter the market. Intraday, news is a smoke screen to manipulate PA. Longer TF’s will factor in news and sentiment no question… that drives trends. But intra day… tech’s rule. Thats my point… feel free to disagree! :5:
U need to up a chart marking your entry and your SL.
Than u can expect some good nuggets from those who do this for a living.
Including the sort of trades that I dont use a SL on.
No one can say for sure if you are picking SL the right way or if ur arbitrary SL is 30 pips etc etc.
A chart marking what u did is always helpful.
Ill also agree with MT here, trading signals are usually made very clear well before a news headline is about to come out. From these little snips of information the educated trader can already read what the majority of the market are thinking. Why do these signals start to appear…well thats due to everyone anticipating the news release, just as you are.
Also SpongeBob SquawkPants…only good for unexpected news events thats are very rare to predict, other than that following the news usually gets you into trouble
Well you made a terrible first impressions what do you expect. Edit: Ah you’re a different person, well read through R-c comments they were very aggressive and insulting and guess what I ran out of patience.
Signal eh, I prefer to know everything, I had SPX running side by side when eur had pretty much perfect correlation running, I had italian bond yields running when that had perfect correlation with eur, I prefer to know what the move is happening, and I prefer to see what traders see when they trade ie news feeds. Just because you choose to ignore that does not mean your method is better pal okay, that’s the whole conversation we’re having you’re hammering me because I have a different method to you.
Again if you’re going for pure tech good for you but don’t you hammer others into backwards thinking.
“Nice job there Mother Theresa…”
What is it with people on this forum being absolute ***holes? I didn’t start it but I am having a hard time not losing my temper after all the constant rudeness. How about you stay out of it if you don’t know what is happening eh buddy, thanks.
Rumer was reported by Dow Jones though that is credible enough for institutionals. Besides officials will always deny everything we know that, they’re still denying that EFSF bought it’s own bonds to raise funds to cover the shortfall.
Why is it so hard to understand that it pushed the price which looked to people like R carter like a breakout.
As for last question, When I looked at the post on friday it said it was made yesterday so I though he was talking about thursday, eur is making lower lows since Wednessday, so if he’s day trader price might have not come back in these very volotile conditions. Remeber last week huge fall on wednesday then huge rally on friday. (you telling me that was pure technicals? Of course not, rumor driver market since october rally).
As for spike on friday it was both technicals and rumor like it always is spike get contained at technical levels.
Again you are not reading my comments, we’ve been through this. When scheduled news releases there’s a consensus prediction which can be optimistic and pessimistic as I explained with you can have positive job growth but it can be below expectations using your logic of “good piece of news” it should go up but actually because it’s below expectations (to which market adjusted in advance) it is in fact appears as bad news. That way price will move to opposite to what you think, after it adjusted to the actual price fundies take over in which case it’s up or down depending on many factors.
Normally like august it was nice a mostly technical behaviour but since october this is a headline market, look for example last wedneday(9th) - friday(11th). Rumors are not same as news releases though, with news releases you have expectations, rumors are unpredictable.
I got news running behind me to know exactly if it’s a spike or a breakout, whether I should enter or stay away.
Doh I replying but it doesn’t seem to show up. Germans always deny rumors but it’s dow jones reporting it, that’s good enough for traders. They’re still denying EFSF buying it’s own bonds to cover short-fall.
Hmm if it was short-covering would it drop down back and even below, to 1.3500? Don’t think so and on a friday.
As for me shorting, when I first read his post I thought he was talking about thursday, I was making a point that if he thinks price should go down and it moves opposite then hoping it goes back down again is careless, I was talking in general.
Why the spike exhaustion at 1.3600? Got contained there and exhausted 
, once it got comfortably contained down it went.
Hi Halba
I am a newbie like yourself ( been trading live now for 6 months ) so I’m by no means the most experienced person to offer any advice. But this is my 2 cents worth anyway.
If , as a newbie, I had placed a trade and it went 25-30 pips up almost straight away, as you said, I would either have just taken the profit and closed the trade, regardless of what my target was. Or I would at least have moved my stop to Break Even at that time.
Regardless of your target, 25-30 pips is a good result for a trade. If your target was +200 pips, and your trade was showing +100 pips, would you leave it to see if it gets to the +200 without managing it in some way ? I wouldn’t.
We hear so much advice about doing this and doing that, but at the end of the day this is YOUR account and it is YOU that has to keep it alive. I would be delighted with a 25-30 pip profit, especially if it had moved that way so soon after I placed the trade.
Keep yourself, or I should say your account, alive by managing it. Next time a trade is that much in profit, you could do much worse than just put the money in the bank.
My 2 cents.
HoG
Ehm, just saying. Does the flaming solve any issue for some? 
Don’t throw stones to me now please! :51:
What you can see if you glue long enough with ANY chart:
If the sentiment is bullish and a bullish news comes out, the price rockets.
If the sentiment is bearish and a bullish news comes out, the price keeps at level.
If the sentiment is bullish and bearish news comes out, the price is flat as well.
If the sentiment is bearish and bearish news comes out, price drops like rocks.
You can combine any other variables like relative prices regarding in value to it and get a better picture.
So yes, news can “ignite” a move, but almost never in isolation. It does just deliver the acceleration for the move in the direction what was planned before the news comes out. More often than not. Why? Because most traders reacting to news are dumb money traders. They are panicking and do the dirty work for those who work with their long term edge. This is just a broad simplified model of my own reception. For sure the market does something else every now and then.
However, that is evidence, that news are not a factor in driving anything in the markets with highest importance. There are news free Mondays where prices rocket or drop as well. Then there are news coming out and price is flat.
Plus then, who is smart money? Smart money is those who make a lot of money in the markets, and I give any warranty that those with mechanical systems like for instance the turtles didn’t trade by news. Those who did in their group performed worst!
I am not saying news are completely unimportant, but it’s just one piece of the picture and it’s definitely not the most important piece. News are made. They almost never come out of nowhere for a random reason. Those who use news in isolation for their trading could be successful, but I guess it’s really a bumpy way to make money. Because you trade almost ever with the herd. I’m not speaking regarding those who use technicals to fade the news.