I’ve lost he last 10 trades I’ve attempted (I’ve only made 13 trades total). I’m picking the right moves, but I keep getting stopped out. Totally frustrating. A couple of my stops where to close by a couple of pips, missing out on 50-60 pip runs. I’m trying to give myself 2:1 or better on per trade risk, but if I’d set my stops closer to 1:1, I could come here and say I gained 300 pips over the last couple of weeks.
I’m not hitting it hard either. I browse my charts and if I see something good, I check the trend froma couple of different TF’s. If it still looks good, I’m in. If not I check a few other charts. If nothing I leave the computer. I don’t force anything.
I go back to my history and see all these good moves. Only if I’d just ignore the per trade risk ratio. So what if I’m risking a lot per trade. My overall record sucks because of tight stops. And each trade went on to be a winner.
I think we forgot one of the other influences in trading… Luck.
Also, in pip school, the way they explain spread payment is wrong. In the real world, your stop loss is that much shorter by the spread. Your take profit is that much farther away by the spread. That would have been good to know ahead of time as well.
There seems to be a lot of self pity around these forums
at the moment.
Who ever told you that Forex trading was easy?
Anybody who says they just pick up a chart & make $million
is telling lies, it takes patience, hard work & determination.
Also luck plays no part, this statememt is a precursor for
"the brokers hunt my stops boohoo", hone your trading system,
money management, etc.
You have just lost 10 trades in a row, who is to say that the
next 10 will not be winners. If they are not then it is a poor system,
tinker with it to make it pay, move the stops out 10, 20, 30 pips
has that made a difference?
This is the reason for demo trading to learn the ropes.
the stops aren’t random. Like a evening star type pattern. If the third candle completes what looks like a a good pattern, I’ll jump in and put my stop at the highest point of the second candle. If I see a trend over the past day, I’ll map a fib retracement overlay and add a stop that maybe only a couple of pips past the previous resistance on a fib line (if the fib lines are matching the support/resistance).
I’ll keep my frustrations to myself from now on and only talk about winners.
What are you using to determine your stop loss? To just say I am going to make my stop loss X% of my capital or X number of pips is a bit na�ve and doesn�t take into consideration the movement of the market. I currently use Japanese Candlestick patterns to determine my stop loss, thus some of my stops are at 9 pips and some can be as far away as 48 pips. I know other traders who use the Average True Range (ATR) times a certain amount for their stop loss and others that use the high or low of the previous candle.
Also, just because you�ve lost 10 trades in a row does not mean a system isn�t working. If you are getting frustrated over losing 10 trades in a row you are going to have quite the roller coaster ride ahead of you. If you back tested your system what was the winning % of your system? Where you getting winning trades 90% of the time (in which case you can expect to get 10 losing trades in a row)? Also what was your max drawdown? For me my system has a winning average of about 60% in a month�s time. My maximum drawdown is around $200 give or take. This means that at any given moment I could have 40 losing trades in a row or lose $200 before I start to see a profit :eek:. This hasn�t occurred yet but as I have back tested my system I know that it is a possibility :). However my average winning ratio is around 3 where as my losing ratio is 1 so despite my lower percentage when I get into a good trade it is a really good trade and when I get into a bad trade my loses are minimal. It is more about what your reward to risk ratio is rather then how many trades you lose in a row.
I’m not at the point of a system yet. I’m taking what I’m learning form Tymens candlestick thread, and I’ve been reading another thread on using fib retratcements (but I seem to havelost it). I guess I’m just watching for reversals and overbought/oversold conditions, and making a decision based on how many candles I feel is relevant.
I don’t know what I would do as far as backtesting. Every trade I consider is a bit different. I have yet to walk up to a perfect reversal pattern (on time). but what do I have are a lot of so - so situations. I don’t think I could apply a system to what I’m doing right now. Every chart is different every day.
I’ve been using Tymen’s system so far too. I have been getting stopped out at the recommended 10 pip stop loss a bit too, but I just follow that up with a 2 amount order once the retrace ends and price actions starts heading the direction the [I]quality [/I]pattern told me it was going to.
If the BB’s are not level (trumpeting) and the pattern does not form on the BB then I get stopped out at the 10 pip stop if I enter. When I wait for a quality trade it does not happen nearly as often.
Just my experience. Also I don’t think the system is intended to pull in 60 + pips in 1 trade. I am under the impression it is more of a 5 - 10 pip system (single lot).
Do you change your rules everyday or do you keep the same rules there are just a lot of them? What I have done in the past is just gone as far back as my demo account will let me and wrote down where I would have opened and what my stop loss would have been and where I would close. I would just slowly move forward and right down all trades. It is a bit time consuming but is worth it in the end as you get a better idea of what to expect from your trading.
I know some charting software doesn’t go back that far but even if you can go back at least a couple of weeks then it can be worth it. And if you can get a charting software that goes back further then use that too. The further back you can go the more data you can collect and the more information that you can have. Even if you are changing how you trade based off of what you see you can still look back a day at a time and see where you would have traded and how it would have turned out. Just remember to be honest with yourself.
I’ve been trying to take some fundamentals from tymens system. The BB’s indicating overbought/oversold I think are good. The candlestick patterns are very good. Between those two I bet one could manage a good system, except for quality patterns aren’t frequent. If I bump up the time frame I see more good patterns though. The 60pip trade was one example. I may post an image of it. I tried entering the trade 3 times. After each retracement ans subsequent stop I’d reneter. Each time I got stopped out. The pattern wen on for a 60pip opportunity before reversing (which I tried to get on as well only to get stopped).
Stops kicked my butt too…I am messing around with STOP LESS Systems…
I know some traders are saying that is the Kiss of death, but it really hasn’t been, i have been able to ride out the WAVES…i have been testing my
SYSTEM-LESS SYSTEM for 4 weeks now… going to hang in there another 4 weeks then try it LIVE…
Noticed a triangle pattern on the EUR/USD today about 10:00. I waited for a dark candle to form (11:00) and went short for 17pips, with a generous stop. Got my 17pips and figured it’s going to keep going. opened another sell position, this time to go 40pips, but I set my stop at 7pips and walked away. I already made 17pips, so this was icing. Come back and see that I was stopped out exactly one candle later. Missed out on 70+ pips. I tell ya, it is very frustrating. Trying to minimize the recent profit and I know damn well things are going lower. No need for a huge s/l. What would you do?
Abner:
I would never set a trade without a stop. Ever. Even if I’m staring at my PC for the whole trade. I’d be curious to know how you do things, but I know your not going to tell.
Thought I would jump in on your thread here, Edacsac, and rescue you before you make too many more losses.
For you evening stars, set your stop loss at 3 pips above the star and [U]leave[/U] [U]it there[/U] - for all the retraces too!
That should solve your problem.
Do not listen to Abner. The people that disappear the quickest on this forum are those who don’t use stops.
No trader with experience works that way.
One big loss with no stops and you lose not only all your profits, but also your margin.
Novices are always tempted to leave out stops.
I am trying to teach people the [U]right [/U]way.
I am totally sure that Daydreamer65 (superior master contributor and member) who posted on this thread will agree with me.
Yes, there are some good patterns around - trouble is we cannot remain awake for 24 hours!
Still, just imagine what you may have lost had you traded inferior patterns!!
Finally, please realize that when a breakout occurs (the BB is “trumpeting”), and a pattern appears, then this trade will be the most difficult you are likely to encounter.
Trading an evening star at this point is basically trading against the trend.
The best you can expect is for the trend to go sideways for a period and, therefore, limit the retrace trading.
Do not be surprised that the trend should resume.
In your trade of 17 pips, you may have been better off calling it quits right there and then.
But a stop of only 7 pips is definitely too small!
With a dark cloud, you need to set your stop several pips above the highest point.
A stop of 7 pips is going to get you stopped almost everytrade you take,
For me a stop is placed somewhere behind support or resistance.
Look for something your confortable, if your placing small stops for fear of loosing perhaps you could reduce the amount you are trading?
Finally i read somewhere above about not trading with a stop, dont do it, trade with stops just put them somewhere sensible, this method might work for some but for most i doubt it, you might want to look at the lower timeframes and look at how pairs move, they dont always just go straight up or down.
By all retraces too, you mean all the action that happens after reveral pattern, before an opposite reversal kinda thing?
Do not listen to Abner. The people that disappear the quickest on this forum are those who don’t use stops.
I’ve been in IT for the majority of my working life, and I’ve seen enough crazy stuff with computers and networks, to never trust a computer. lol.
Yes, there are some good patterns around - trouble is we cannot remain awake for 24 hours!
I’m missing the good ones by an hour or two! My problem is, I still jump in after the fact thinking I’m going to find something. I opened several trades of “nothing” last night while most of the pairs I watch where close to flat lining, and wonder why my account is down when I check it this morning.
Finally, please realize that when a breakout occurs (the BB is “trumpeting”), and a pattern appears, then this trade will be the most difficult you are likely to encounter.
Trading an evening star at this point is basically trading against the trend.
The best you can expect is for the trend to go sideways for a period and, therefore, limit the retrace trading.
Do not be surprised that the trend should resume.
I remember you saying that now that you remind me!
In your trade of 17 pips, you may have been better off calling it quits right there and then.
But a stop of only 7 pips is definitely too small!
Even if your only looking for 10pips plus spread?
With a dark cloud, you need to set your stop several pips above the highest point.
I’m not picking many solid moves. I’m jumping in most of the time just to do “something”. but if I set a t/p of 25 pips, thats huge for me so far.
Quality patterns only! Find something else to do while you are watching the charts. For a few days this week I got impatient and started entering on patterns that were not quality patterns, and my loss count went up. So now I do other stuff while I’m watching.
In my humble and novice opinion, it seems better to not enter and keep my money than enter on a less than quality pattern and get a loss that I have to try and get back…
Actually, trading without a stop/loss does work. And it works all the time for seasoned and experienced traders. This floating loss fear is the biggest fear most traders face and it is a very irrational fear arising from not having really studied the pairs they chose to trade. If you knew the character of the pair that you are trading, know the daily, weekly, and monthly range of those pairs, and knew the average movement and knew how they behaved in certain situations, you would know by looking at the price, what day of the week it is, and somewhat knew the sentiment of majority of traders, you would know by looking at the current price whether it was good to get in a trade because you know how far the price could move away before retracing in your favor giving you the win.
Also, I have noticed that most people still cannot calculate their margins and how much PIP movement would cause a margin call. Calculate that first before opening a trade please. Learn how to calculate it if you still do not know. And stop trading too much meaning don’t have 12 trades open concurrently. And don’t trade too many pairs either. Pick one or 2. At most 3 and also don’t hedge. It is a waste of your time and ultimately your money. Calculate how much margin hit would trigger a margin call and open trades accordingly. Maximize your potential by always calculating money management trades. It is obvious that most newbies are opening up trades willy nilly with nary a thought to their madness and scratching their head at their losses and margin calls wiping out their demo accounts. And it is always a good idea to make sure that at least 90% of your margin is remaining with your trades open. So if you are trading 2 pairs, make sure each is opening only 5% risk trades of your available equity. Do these calculations every time you open a trade. And when 2 trades are open, don’t open another trade until one or both of them have exited. When your chosen trades are open, your next move is to look for opportunities to exit, not look for another entry.
Put some thought processes into your trades; this is no kid’s game and it certainly is no gambling like some people like to think. And if you distrust brokers and firms and are entering this with a very infantile view, please… don’t even get into trading. Like someone said, I only see self-pitying and blame and misinformed views from newbies. Approach it methodically and don’t overtrade. Pick 2 pairs to trade ideally and stick to it. I personally know people who earn over $2 Million per year trading only EUR/USD so don’t get sucked into this diversification greed. That’s all it is, greed. Keep it in check always. All you really need is expertise in one pair and you’ll do great. The point then is to trade bigger and bigger lots as your balance increases. Don’t sit there and keep on trading 1 nano lots. You aren’t going anywhere.
I find your post very hypocritical, since you say not to use a stop loss and yet talk about gambling.
It is you that is gambling.
To trade without a stop loss is to court financial disaster. In the event of a power outage, you could receive a margin call in the time it takes to re-boot your computer.
Every good trading book you read, every experienced trader (including Kathy and Boris on Daily FX on this forum) on this forum with all their experience will advocate the use of a stop loss.
That is indeed, how you calculate your risk/reward ratio.
But they are all stupid, aren’t they?!! :mad: :mad:
I am sick and tired of telling people the need for a stop loss.
Some people think they are invincible.
When they eventually lose their money they wisen up. :o
But I see that Edacsac is an IT expert with much experience, so I know that he will use a stop loss!!
:o