Hi BP members. I will be back on my normal work schedule tomorrow so I can start testing this evening. 
OKā¦so I had 3 trades open on Friday when the market closed. Iāve decided that if that happens I will count Sunday when the market opens as part of Friday, because (at least on my computer in Idaho) the market opens for 2 hours before a new daily candle starts. Taking this into account, 2 of the 3 gapped open into my T/P so I just made +580 more pips for last week. That puts my total net at +36.62% over 2 weeks. 
So my new daily candles opened last night, I took a few minutes and entered all my trades. Ate dinner, watched a movie, went to bed. When I got up to get ready for work todayā¦+1290 pips. Still have a couple trades cooking, but what a way to start the week!
More positives and 2 negatives today, with every pair opened and closed (seems Mondays are more likely to hit all pairs). Final numbers are +1260 pips for $1213.27.
Seriouslyā¦is anyone else trying this with similar success?
I think 99% of the people reading this thread are confused about the logic and setups without pictures of chartsā¦ 
Iām not sure what there is to be confused about and a chart certainly doesnāt help. All you need is the average daily range for the last 10 days. It shows in the template at the beginning of this thread or you can easily calculate it manually by subtracting the daily low from the daily high for each of the past 10 days then averaging them. This number is rounded to the nearest 25 (i.e. 242 would round to 250 whereas 212 would average to 200). Now divide this number in half and round it to the nearest 10 (i.e. 250/2 = 125 rounds to 130, 200/2 = 100 which is already rounded). This āmagicā number is used for entry, SL, and TP. You base entries off of the previous dayās close (all this is done on a daily chart). Add your āmagicā number to the previous close and place a stop buy at that level. Subtract the āmagicā number from the previous close and place a stop sell there. Both are 1 single lot. The SL and TP for those entries are both the āmagicā number away from each entry. This ends up putting both SL at yesterdayās close. When one of the entries is activated, cancel the other then let it ride to close at SL or TP. If you TP, repeat with the new numbers for a single lot (or one less if youāre already trading more than one once into the system) the next day. If SL is hit, add one to your lot for the next day. If a trade is opened but not closed, just let it ride. If neither buy nor sell is hit that day, cancel (or modify) both the next day based on the new numbers. There will be some draw down, but overall it seems to end positive. Hereās a chart just in case that helps some of you. (I added the pink highlight in the orders section)
^^ Great post man. That helps a LOT! Cheers!
1st day showed positive results. I was unable to cancel 1 of the orders on USD/CHF which resulted in a double stop out. Look forward to testing. Nice explanation BKR1969. Thanks for helping.
PIP_CHASER, Iām working on writing an EA for this system to make it even easier and also to allow back testing. Iām off on Wednesday so I can put some extended time into it and hopefully get something useful done. If nothing else, I [I]know[/I] I can write a function that will cancel a pending order when the opposite one is hit. So far, thatās the only potential hazard with this system. Iāve been fortunate to only hit one of those myself, and that one closed for profit so it canceled the loss I took on its partner.
Bkr1969 I tested system last Thursday and Friday. Didnāt have good results. I became sick over the weekend and havenāt tested system this week. I do believe you are onto something though.
As of today, just 12 trading days since I started testing this system, I have over doubled my initial $2500 to $5279 and change. Naysayers can think what theyād like, but I donāt think this is a fluke. I do think that some periods will be less successful than these past 2 weeks, but overall these results look realistic. I had 38 winning trades and 27 losing trades, so itās not about being lucky to have had everything going in my favor. I just think this works.
Please send as much firm, negative criticism as you can find. At this point Iād almost like to find a hole in the system before I jump in with real money.
Good results brk1969. The nice thing about this system is that is based on ADR and will keep in tune with the market. A 58% hit-rate on a 1:1 R/R system based on your results thus far is fair in my opinion. The only thing that really stands out as a major risk is the consecutive losses consider the mm calls for increasing the position size. I guess would could reverse this and say we increase after a win and decrease after a loss. I have not formed an opinion if this would make any difference over the long run. Any thoughts?
Have you looked at backtesing areas of consolidation on the charts? Right now everything in FX land on the daily charts are going bonkers with massive swings everywhere and huge trends. What about back in may, when price was just bobbing around doing nothing? Does the system still hold water during those times?
Just something to consider. Right now is a definite and distinct market type that is much different from the markets we had 6 months ago. If this method is going to be robust it should hold water in those conditions as well.
So do some backtesting and let us know what you think!
This system adjust to the ADR and takes half of that amount on a rounded down basis for the trigger be it either long or short. That in itself can be traded in a consolidated or trending period. Does this statement make sense? This system would fail if every single candle was a doji. I have not back-tested this system. I am using my logic of what a typical daily candle does in regards of putting in a range. Your comments are welcomed.
I agree about the market conditions right now. However, even when range bound, this system should work, just with smaller gains. The ADR would adjust to this, enabling small profits off of small daily ranges. I am working on an EA right now that will hopefully be done tomorrow, but in a week or 2 at most. I will back test this then over different periods to see how it looks. That is the only thing left to āproveā* this system.
*Poster acknowledges that there is no āHoly Grailā and no system is without flaws and or low/negative times.
I understand that it SHOULD workā¦ but before I went live iād want to make sureā¦ thats just me. I get what you guys are saying and I agree, it should work no problem. Very excited to see what the EA can do if it gets working.
bkr, thanks for the testing. This is a breakout trading method, where no other indicators are needed. Iām looking at some other breakout trading methods that use the prior two hour trading range, and which are performing exceptionally well. Would love to see this one do the same, as the trading time would be ideal, (after the close of New Yawk session for me to enter my orders). Iām looking for an EA on MT4 that will do an OCA. I think onhe exists, but am not sure.
Well of course this method wouldnāt work if every candle were a dojiā¦but that makes no sense as there wouldnāt be a forex market if that happened. Some pairs will always trade better than others. I think part of the reason Iāve had success is that Iām trading 8 pairs. If one or two are ranging, others are trending more.
Thanks for your post, Tess. It was very encouraging.
I spent the morning working on some programming. I want to eventually finish an entire EA for this system, but in the meantime, I started with 2 scripts to automate entering orders. Place them in your /experts/scripts folder and re-start MT4. All you have to do is modify the lot size to whatever itās supposed to be (it defaults to 1 lot). This takes [I][B]a lot[/B][/I] of typing out of entering orders on 8 pairs (and in my case 8 pairs on 2 separate accounts). Enjoy!
Do you trade this system exactly as posted or do you put your own stuff into it? If you are making monopoly money, itās it time to at least trade 0.1 minilot with real money?