greg, i’m just trying to get the feel for what you’re doing and see if i can follow. if you can see the attached chart, tell me if i am in the ballpark. this is a 5" eur/usd chart with trade 1 entering 7-18 at 14:20 edt. i see three setups. it looks like the first would have been stopped out at the recent swing low, losing -10 or -12. the second would have been good for maybe +15 or so. though you can’t see the outcome on the third, it had upside potential of maybe +10, +15. trade 2 took right off and never looked back. trade 3 would have depended on the stop-loss, if we had enough room for it to develop. both 2 & 3 would have depended on when we decided to close.
tell me if i am getting the entries right, then i will enjoy visiting with you more on exits. thanks.
Yes you are on it. Congrats! You are the first to confirm this strategy with a chart. After working with this strategy I’ mhappy withe the results. To me it takes a certain amount a work to get a feel for setting targets, stops and sizing of trades. I’m actually very happy that you are interested in this strategy. I look forward to a continued discussion on this strategy. I ended trading this week on a winning trade with a 8/10 record, it felt good.
This will be a continuing project. I know the method works, note that there are things to watch for as you trade it.
In a way it is only scaffold to help guide trading.
With a 5 minute chart your targets are pretty good. I lean more to 15 minute charts with a target of 17-19 pips. Stops are very tricky. I use the donchian channels to help set stops. I watch the patterns of the chart to see how wild the or calm the price action is in considering setting stop.
Prediter,
Four years.
I have started trading multiple micros and I will continue to increase with as I improve.
I work to stay with trending markets. Donchian channels help determine trending markets. The angle of the 50 sma helps determine trend. I check higher time frames for longer term trends.
I is also important to trading during the more active times such as London open and New York markets.
I now look for one or two set ups a day. I used to over trade and I do much better now. No trading Fridays.
The David Jefferson thread stresses that indicators are just a framework or guide, it is still often a judgement call based on the information that is available to the trade.
I suggest paper trading before actual real money and then increase only if you are successful as a trade. Forex eats money. I have however never blown an account.
I waited for this set up for awhile. I went down to the one minute for entry, first one then another. I took profit early due to the crazy market. When there is such a steep fall, I will look for reversals like this one. They are often short lived. The trade on the one minute met the criteria for a long trade.
Progress,
Since last Wednesday.
65 pips
28
11
-26
-82
30
38
16
24
15
23
0
16
10
12
12/14
85%
170 net
This is a pretty good run. The -82 loss was where is chased a trade. I would think a longer term win rate would be closer to 70%. None of this means much if more loses are greater than the winners.
greg, it looks good. i never thought of moving the tf down to 1". i was stuck on 5" looking for a trade this morning. moving to a lower tf completely changed the chart from a meandering trendline to a definite uptrend. do you routinely toggle between tfs?
This am I could have played a short and would have come out fine for about 15 pips. But I was thinking even with the bad news from Spain the market was oversold. So to go long searched the different tfs and there it was in the one minute. This is a higher risk trade than the standard 10/20, note my conservative targets, but I think it was justified.
If you have been reading David Jefferson’s thread it is interesting to note the profession bull bear zone. I really like his overall philosphy, especially in how to use indicators. I know I’m nibbling in the retail zone, I know it is problematic, however nibbling is not bad.
I’m a long term sport fishing guy. Trout, salmon, and sturgeon. I know that even if I use all the right bait and spinner, and flies I know I must know the timing and cycle of trades. My son and I go fishing on the Columbia River. The sturgeon can run 5 feet or more. We don’t fish for the big ones, we are happy with the 3 and 4 footers and catch and release.
Perhaps you see my point. The indicators are important, but having a feel for timing and cycling is important too. The RSI helps as does the Donchian Channels and of course the 50 sma. It is interesting seeing how traders are always adding and changing indicators. I have done that many times. Now I don’t do that, but instead spend more time getting a feel for the cycles, patterns and movement of the market and digesting that over different tfs. In addition I have changed from trading 6 currencies to just the eur/usd. For me that is more than enough. And lastly no more overtrading.
14 of 16 wins
200 pips total net
I was able to pick up a small chunk of the breakdown. Fairly consistent with 10/20 strategy, although the massive engulfing hourly candle was fairly convincing for a short move.
Greg,
This is my third attempt to post being sick so long must have affected me. I have been reading your thread and I can’t find where you added the SAR and how you’re using it.
Dave
i cant seen to find a donchian channel for my platform, is there a replacement for it and i dont really get it when you say place a entry at the middle donchian channel. Thanks for answering.
That is great, the center line is not necessary. Did you see the trade I missed on the eur/usd 5 minute? It moved fast and did not retreat as much as I thought. No problem another will come along.
GJ
