Arrggg!! Got the wrong figure, okay, fixed now…long has not triggered yet…
If the short triggers, like it has this week, do you leave the long on until next Sunday?
What about removing the long if the short reaches b/e?
I usually cancel it based on how far it’s moved down, but don’t have a set “rule” about when to remove it.
I’d probably let it move a little further down than the short BE point, given the large weekly ranges we’ve been having lately.
Also, I’ve never had a winner hit after Wednesday night, so I usually cancel the orders if they haven’t hit by then (that rarely happens though).
My long trade just got triggered, then stopped out 15 minutes later. 
Looks like it might be another ranging week for GBP/USD.
We’ve only had one loss since our last big win so statistically we were due for a couple losers, so no big deal. 
Was there news? It spiked by 75 pips to hit the b/e on my short and then went back down. Long wasn’t triggered. Oh well.
I’m not seeing any news announcements on any of the forex news sites, so I’m not sure what it was.
My long only got triggered by 3 pips, thankfully your broker and mine were off a little and you got spared. 
Wasn’t last week also a loss?
Thats 2 losing trades for me this week & like Phil838 long was triggered by just 3 pips, Its almost tempting to take the long again if it is triggered as the last one was surely a false spike caused be some news or major bank buying somewhere.
what do you think phil? Have you ever taken the same trade twice in the same week in these circumstances or would you consider this to be messing with the systems rules
Yes, last week was our first loss since the big win on June 1st. All the other trades this month have been breakevens, which I don’t count in my win rate.
We have 1 win and 3 losses for the month, which is pretty close to the historical 30% win rate.
Because I had a slightly higher higher in my sunday data, Im still in the short trade. Hopefully it keeps going
I never have, but I certainly don’t see any reason not to in a situation like this. That spike only lasted a few minutes so it was definitely news or a bank/government transaction, not regular market moves.
If I was going to get back in I’d set alarms and enter manually instead of with pending orders though, since it’s spiked twice already. Then you can make sure the move up is normal market movement and not another spike.
I’m going to bed and won’t be reentering, but good luck to anyone that decides to!
yep thanks for you’re thoughts, i was thinking along the same lines, ie depends how price is behaving before entering any long trigger again
Are you still in the short trade, Rei? If so it looks like your past the BE point and heading for a possible winner!
Keep us updated!
Yes I am. Too bad its only a demo trade. I moved to break even just a short while ago since my stop loss it about 78 pips. Hasn’t reached the target yet but its looking good.
EDIT: The trade hit 200 pips and pulled back a bit. London session is about to open in 15min and I am tempted to take profit. But I will hold out for the 245 TP.
Hi Phil, i think your strategy is fantastic, however i have a very similar strategy i developed myself, the difference is it uses the sunday daily candle for entry, stop loss will be moved quickly to breakeven and a minimum risk reward of 3:1. Although i have’nt traded mine live because my broker (IG) does not allow any timeframe lower than 4hrs to be viewed for over 3 months hence there was no way i could backtest this to see the actual intraday price flunctuation for a year. Can u please tell me how you backtested yours?
Thanks and any other suggestions would be very helpful.
Getting low time frame data that goes back years is pretty hard. Alpari demo accounts will scroll back to 1999 on any timeframe, but they don’t have Sunday data on their charts and they use a weird GMT+2 timezone. I used my regular broker’s charts on a 1 hour timeframe to backtest mine, and the few times I needed lower timeframes I looked on the Alpari charts.
My system has the larger breakeven point though, so I only needed the low timeframes a few times per year when the trade came down to a couple pips. If you need low timeframes every week it’s going to be really annoying looking back and forth between charts.
That’s the best idea I have for getting really old low timeframe data.
thanks so much for the reply. i have just downloaded alpari demo, i tried scrolling back on the 1, 5 and 15 charts but it keeps jerking back to the current day.
how do i scroll back way further without it doing this as i hve never used this platform b4?
thanks
Hi steviedarian,
Make sure you don’t have the auto scroll unselected. See the attached picture where I circled in red.
Good afternoon everyone, I’m sorry I missed out on this trade this week. Not really… I’ve been on vacation the last 4 days and just got back. Otherwise I would have had the same losses, I’m reading about here. Good Luck next Sunday!!!
Hi Phil, thanks for sharing your system.
I’ve begun backtesting; figured I’d start with 2009 and work my way back since more recent results are probably more important anyway. I just wanted to check and see if my results match up with yours since I tend to go cross-eyed doing backtesting and probably miss some things here and there. From the trades you’ve posted here and the comment you made about the 5-week stretch in Feb, I think I’m matching up, but just wanted to double check.
For 2009 I’ve got 9 wins and 27 losses and several BEs for a win-loss of 21% (I don’t include BEs). Worst stretch, as you indicated, was Feb 1 to Mar 8, with no wins during that time. Total return was just over 17R. There might be a bit of difference because I set my stop at the high/low with an additional 5 pips added in, and factor in a spread of 5.
One thing I’ve noticed and will definitely keep an eye on as I work my way back in time: At least for 2009, instead of moving to BE when you hit 2x SL in profit, moving your stop to a profit equal to stoploss (i.e. 1R) would have cost us only one win, and would have turned all those BEs into 1R profits. Total return for 2009 would then have been a bit over 19R. Or, to be safer, at least setting the stop to half the SL, so those BEs still return some profit (1/2R) but there is less risk of cutting a real winner that way. Doing this would have a total return for 2009 of a bit over 21R (not bad for 6 months! At 2% risk, and assuming this continued for the rest of the year, we’d be looking at an 80% return!).
My charts go back to 1999 so it’ll take me awhile. I doubt I’ll go back that far since I don’t think conditions were anything like what they are now, but it could be useful to see how the method does in other climates. I’ll post results as I work them out (like I said, I’m horribly slow at this).