Ok, here is the late post “analysis” of trade that i posted blurry picture last time , please have a mercy.
I entered long EU on Friday 17, after retest of stopping move, SV wasnt super clean but i took it, it had IMO preliminary support automatic rally test and retest. At least i have seen all that in there lol.
I waited for retest and put stop bellow. i got small position and added later. On Sunday gap up i actually sold all and bought back later, after seeing high volume at double top of small channel i decide to sell i thought this could be a potential selling climax, and see if i can go short which i did, since price did not make new high and actually did new low , then i was going to wait for three pushes down and did cover some short on the way down, and got stopped out of rest. So i went long again. Not sure if this was best to do but thats what i did. Obviously if i stayed long from initial Friday i’d made more but i was afraid of weakness coming in.
i trade small sizes for now because i’m new to forex. i add up to 10 micro lots for now.
I keep adding when i am comfortable.
Here is the link for pictures
Hi Justin,
Just my opinion, but I do believe it to be accurate. Petes methodology in many ways cannot really be put into a post of what the strategy is, because there is a whole lot that is hard to be put to paper as such. Much of this is also reading background information (strength/weakness) along with Wyckoff/VSA from Petefaders own viewpoint, mixed in with Fibs, pivots and other S/R type areas.
People have written on it and the books become quite huge, which is not dissimilar to Petes threads. To be honest, it is always an evolving beast, along with the market, so I know it is a huge amount to read over etc, but it is very worthwhile. His vids on Youtube are also very useful.
Unfortunately, I don’t think his method can really be written into a post for others to follow effectively, as a pretty deep understanding is required. It is not an indicator based thing where a combo of indicators makes a trade. There is a lot of hard work to be done in understanding the background of the market and how SM is thinking at any stage in the day.
let say price just has pushed through s/r level on “healthy” volume level
then if it goes back to test this s/r from new territory - low vol test will give a better chance that trade will work
We will not know if the trade will work or not. Absolutely noting is definite or guaranteed. All we are doing is moving the probabilities into our favour. If you can get an average of 1:1 risk return minimum trades correct 60-65% of the time, you will be well on your way to success
Guys please can you confirm this typical trading range scenario and tell me if this sounds correct from what I have learned so far please:
We see a breakdown out of the trading range on bad news, the professionals are using the bad news to buy into the herds selling on bad news, the professionals will soon mark up prices whilst the earlier shorts are now panicking and covering their shorts essentially buying which pushes the price up further and late buyers now join in as Professionals step in with more high volume buying pushing price upwards into two wide spread high volume bars in a buying climax. Price slows down and professionals want to know if any sellers exist at this level, which was a previous trading range to the left, so they mark down the price rapidly and price offers a No supply indication of a low volume down bar, this bullish indication confirms no professional selling at this level but prices close on the low of this No Supply. Professionals want to be sure that all supply has been removed, so they ‘Test’ the market by another rapid mark down which is a comparably low volume down-bar but which closes on the highs. The comparably low volume and the close on the high of this bar shows us this is a successful test where there are no sellers present, happy with this the Professionals buy more and the market rises higher.
many thanks
Thank you kindly nordway for your comment
[B]
Confirmation of No Supply:[/B] next bar to close higher than the No Supply bar on strength in the background, preferable in a uptrend with confluence.
[B]Confirmation of No Demand: [/B]next bar to close lower than the No Demand bar on weakness in the background, preferable in a downtrend with confluence.
Also, wicks on the top of a ND and on the bottom of a NS bar(s) are helpful.
I believe that for a bar to be considered either an NS or ND, there has to be at least some wick on either end, ie not opening or closing on its extreme high or low.
I use an NS/ND indicator in case I miss one as such, and it it programmed that way as well.
I think the NS/NS needs to be less volume than at least the two prior to it. If you have a possible ND for example, and another candle closes above its high, it gets cancelled out, however, if a candle after closes below its low, then it is a confirmed ND and same but opposite for NS confirmations
wow sounds like sci-fi.
i would say that after buying climax, proffesionals would already go short instead buying more at high prices to maintain the rally, IMO they accumulated all supply at lower prices and already tested there for sellers, It also seems strange that you say that proffesionals removed all the supply from market and then bought more.
think about this sentence : Profesionals step in with high volume buying creating a selling climax
IMO its the heard who is buying
Then you say at this level they want to test, after buing climax ? i think they know they sold all
And you mention news lot of times, but i wouldnt pay attention to news too much.
I hope someone else can comment too.
This is just how i see it.
Of course there are reacumulations but basically smart money is selling at top and buing at bottom.
Peace
and the one on top is after potential buying climax
in theory if there is no supply price would have to rise right ? no sellers than price has to go up ( if buyers come -demand)
thats law of supply and demand IMO
so that no demand bar there is ok and you can see it worked, price went down
also you would be looking no supply in uptrend and no demand in downtrend
The trick of the professionals (SM) is that they sell into an upmove. What they can do (due to their huge resources available) is create an upmove by buying a bit and creating large interest with potential traders going long into that “beautiful” upmove, then they sell again to stop that upmove, creating the volume as they end up matching every buy order with a sell order and most of the time more.
What happens with a potential ND after that move is SM basically withdraw from making any new positions (long or short) and see what the herd is doing ie is there any floating demand left. If there is floating demand, they will happily short into it making their total short position bigger and then test with another possible ND and repeat until there is an exhaustion of floating buyers, then it is game time. They then short more initially and the price plummets. Not the herd think ****, I’ve got to get in on that move - I cannot miss it. By the time the herd realise and say this, the price has already dropped enough for SM to start closing out their shorts and taking profit. They continue to do this until the supply of shorts get exhausted and they rinse and repeat the process.
To them, this is like taking candy from a baby. The promise of VSA is to see what SM are doing and as soon as markup/markdown is seen, attach ourselves like suckerfish to the SM shark and ride the profits alongside them.
Trading ranges (distribution/accumulation) can also be profitable by seeing the high volume points at one extreme and realise SM is accumulating/distributing positions at that time. We can make small profits as well if we are skilled enough at reading the market.
thank you guys for the feedback, this is great! appreciate the response to the scenario I posted, now I just have to sit down and compute this in my head for a while… must practice spotting these ND and NS
also i think the big resources you need for sure but its not due to those that you create upmove, you in charge of all supply (you accumulated it) and that means you can mark up, no one else has supply
look at Sumitomo copper affair or silver tuesday, when things goes wrong, and Sumitomo is big firm
Friday saw a high volume selling climax on NFP data with a lower daily close and price action currently ranging between 38.2 and 50 fib levels and 1H chart shows possible high volume selling pressure.
Hey all, just checking in! It’s been a challenge for me to get a read on things and find a good setup (at least the hours I trade) but I managed to win 3 of 4 trades since last week…wasn’t easy lol.
Today I shorted A/J. 1hr buy climax at fib during down trend…kept it simple. Around 13:45 GMT it Pushed through support on aggressive selling, then ND appeared just after I got in. AHHH charts made me crazy though lately…and today my broker didn’t want to fill me for $hit. Ahhhh stressss! LOL. Doesn’t help that my 11 month old is not letting me sleep (wah wah). I need a vacation lol.
