Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

No problem, I appreciate every good answer I get. Thanks!

Am I correct that following criteria shows strength?
[ul]
[li]Big stopping volume at first bearish candle
[/li][li]No Supply
[/li][li]Small reversal volume (green oval)
[/li][/ul]
Anything wrong or did I forget anything?


One question to this EU setup at 2015-02-19. Background: EU has been ranging for several days. Resistance area has bee identified (see H1 picture).

If I got it right, Pete opened a short at the marked bearish candle, but there was a similar candle before. Is the candle before not OK?



Hey guys. Iā€™ll be responding when I get back to my office. Good stuff. :slight_smile:

I am studying lots of material at the moment and have many questions - sorry for that. I hope the questions are of interest also for other peopleā€¦

One setup from november 2011: H1 shows down trend with a redistribution phase where I marked the support area in gray.
In the M5 chart after a breakthrough I found a confirmed no demand which has a quite big distance (65 pips) from the upper border of the support area.

Here are the questions:
[ul]
[li]Would you take the marked entry after the no demand? If yes: Put the SL somewhere at the support area or anywhere else?
[/li][li]Do you see better entries before?
[/li][/ul]



Hey Frog,

Great post man! Itā€™s nice to see someone new come to the thread that has taken the time to read the material, form an intelligent thought, and have specific questions with a chart as an example. Kudos!

I was thinking about a similar situation the other day. One of my favorite entries over the pas year has become the break test continuation. It has kept me out of SO many losing trades. The flip side is occasionally price runs away from you, and it can feel like its too far to chase. 65 pips is a big stop loss unless youā€™re trading a very small amount. My contention here is that its a valid entry. However, the R:R is a bit scary. If I was to take the trade I would either use a small lot and try and ride this out, or I would use a large lot and try and scalp about 25 pips with a tight stop. Or simply wait for a retrace which is all but inevitable :slight_smile:

Youā€™ve got a great downtrend behind you that is going to take a LOT of buying to stop, and it appears the volume is continuing to support bearish moves.

Hope that helps. I welcome anyone elses thoughts.

Thanks,

Ryan

I donā€™t wanna speak for Pete because nobody knows exactly whatā€™s inside the mind of a genius BUTā€¦ :slight_smile:

The probability of the second entry is higher than the first entry. At the point of the second entry there were two areas of high activity at high prices. Any desire for price to rise higher was rejected and the resistance help. Therefore, the chances of it advancing after that second rejection were very low. A shorty entry there gives great probability.

That said, I wasnā€™t in front of the FX charts this week so Iā€™m not sure where exactly this move corresponded on the H1 so there may be more to it than this.

The one glaring thing to me is that technically that is not a NS. A NS should have small wicks, not large ones, and it definitely shouldnā€™t have a large upper wick. This wouldā€™ve scared me away from entry.

If you take the large red news candle that was the SV, and the next two candles, you get an interesting picture. The next 9 bars actually show a very spikey range. It could work out because of the strength in the background but I would definitely be careful when you see lots of wicks like that.

[QUO
TE=frog68;685867]Am I correct that following criteria shows strength?
[ul]
[li]Big stopping volume at first bearish candle[/li][li]No Supply[/li][li]Small reversal volume (green oval)[/li][/ul]
Anything wrong or did I forget anything?


[/QUOTE]

Good question! It looks like a trade taken more based on price action than volume, which there is nothing wrong with. Pete is one crafty moā€™ foā€™! I too, would like to hear if that was the main reason for taking the trade or was there more to it?

Never stop learning!

EDIT: Sorry, Iā€™m working my way backward through the thread today. Frank, it looks like the volume on your chart is different from the others in this case. The volume on othersā€™ U/CAD charts is WAY higher and makes the trade much more clear based on extremely high volume on a fake break.

Nice work guys!

ā€œThe great thing about the truth is that itā€™s true whether you believe it or notā€

Hi PipDaddy,

First of all: Many thanks for your answers! It helps me a lot to know how more experienced traders think about the questionsā€¦

OK, I will try to find out whats wrong with my UC volume data. I love MetaQuotes data loader :30:.

Best Regards
Frank

Dude,

Two words of advice:

  1. Always post a chart when you have a specific question. That way YOU do the leg work and Pete can simply take a look at your hypothesis on your charts, and help you out. When you pose specific questions the way you did, itā€™s really hard because Pete has to open his charts, find the levels youā€™re talking about, and then try and figure out exactly what your thoughts were. In short, make it easy for people to help you. Look at the recent posts from Frog68. Those were great questions! He was clear about what he was asking, he spelled out what he thought the answer might be, and he posted charts! Do you know how easy it is to answer posts like that? Very easy. With the way you were posing questions, it takes a lot more work. Now, if you joined Petes chat room, you would get them answered either way. But keep in mind this is all free, and accordingly we should all be respectful of that.

  2. Realize that you did goad Pete, even if you didnā€™t intend to. You basically said his videos werenā€™t great, or they were not worth watching. I know that to be false. I also know that if you really did read this entire thread, the previous thread, and watched all the videos, you would be able to form a hypothesis on why Pete took those trades, and then asked a better question, which would have been quick and easy to answer.

Take if from someone who has scoured the earth for information on how the market works, and how to trade; itā€™s right here. I would reach out to Pete, apologize, and try and be a positive part of this community. The reason I encourage you to do so is that you are unlikely to find the right answer any where else.

Ryan

Having fun catching up? Unbelievable eh? There still going after me in the ā€œhow to spot scamsā€ thread lol.
I challenge them to talk to my paid subscribers in the group chat and they never show up. So silly.

Anyway, good to see you around. Pipdaddy knows his stuff, people. Another success story because he put the work in. :slight_smile:

Hahahahaha! What a fcking joke you are!! I just looked up your profile, and checked out all of your posts. There wasnā€™t ONE post where you actually provided help on trading, strategy, methodology, or ANYTHING useful! Which begs the question, why are you on BP?? I mean it, please enlighten us. Tell us how YOU trade oh wise one. Pleeeease help me improve my horrible winning percentage!!! Or simply admit that you are a wannabe trader who doesnā€™t know sht so your only way to post is to troll or post quips that are the most useless general trading advice that isnā€™t worth the 10kb of space that it took up on the interwebs.

In short:

Iā€™m a better trader than you.
I have way more money than you.
I help others learn so that they will be able to achieve the same.
And last but probably most important, Iā€™m not a useless assh*le like you, who detracts from this community.

Get off the interwebs and go spend time with your ugly wife.

Ryan

LOL! Iā€™ll remember not to mess with you :stuck_out_tongue: I did block him so heā€™ll probably go whine in another thread. Iā€™m starting to smell some jealousy around here and it stinks. Oh well, Iā€™m the $hit. Donā€™t hate.

Not only that, but youā€™re saying eff it and DOING IT LIVE!!! WEā€™LL DO IT LIVE! Fricken thing sux! LOL LOL !!!

LOL I saw some of the flurry of BS playing out via nightly updates but was too busy to post as it came through. Holy crap!! People have lost their minds. You know, when it comes to success there are two types of people. People who get jealous and hate, and then people who think to themselves, wow, that person is really successful, how can I connect with that person and learn to emulate what they do. I have never understood the mentality of the former.

I totally understand being skeptical, but SHEESH, how much proof do these people need??

Thanks for the kind words, I learned from the best! And you are correct, I had to put in a LOT of time to understand things to the level that I do. I actually started my first class of this semester of Day Trading for Beginners by saying ā€œThis class will be useless to you.ā€ LOL I went on to say, this class will be useless to you if you donā€™t put in the extra time to truly study, master, practice, study more, and practice more. Nothing trumps good old fashion hard work when youā€™re learning this profession. (Then again, it was clear for some of the people posting that BS, that it wouldnā€™t matter how hard they tried, they suffered from a lack of intellectual horsepower on top of their laziness)

The good news is that amongst all that crap, I saw a lot of great questions being asked and people really engaging in their trading education. Thats awesome!

I hope to join you for some middle of the night trading soon broseph!

So I have reloaded the data using several methods:
[ol]
[li] I logged in to MT4 by my live account at SVSFX, opened History Center, enabled every USDCAD timeframe stepwise and clicked on download (M1, M5, ā€¦Monthly)
[/li][li] I logged in to MT4 using MetaQuotes-Demo account, same procedure as above
[/li][li] I opened a dukascopy chart (https://www.dukascopy.com/free/candelabrum/chart.html)
[/li][/ol]

The displayed volumes are slightly different:
1.)

2.)

3.)

So PipDaddy, could you post a screenshot on how the volumes are displayed for you? I think using VSA its very important to have good volume data.

Regards Frank

Gold making it easy.


Edit: I zoomed out to compare volumes (I always do it) so it may look a bit far away, but if you open your gold 15 min chart, youā€™ll clearly see the spot. Still running :slight_smile:

Keep testing indicators pleaseā€¦ VSA is bs, donā€™t read Pete stuff. I need herd lol.

Hey, this afternoon was the first occasion I tried to trade the VSA method, and I have to say I am impressed. :wink: I made a bit lower of 1% of my total balance in 2 trades in a few hours, which is like a HUGE success for me, considering I had very few practical experience before. But this system is so logical and the volume confirms the latter price movements so well, its unbelievable.

I post my 2 trades, and I welcome every ideas about my way of thinking at taking these trades. :slight_smile:

First was EURGBP, on the 1H I saw it is trending down, as well as it reached another high inside the trend, so it was obvious Iā€™m gonna look for short trades. Then I switched to 5M timeframe.


At this point the chart was a few candles after the huge volume bearish candle, so I was looking for ND candles. I found one at the first marked ND (at the same place there was an ND candle on 15M, and 1M was full of it), the next bearish candle confirmed it, so I entered on its close and put my stop a bit above the highest point.

Higher volumes appeared on bearish candles, lower on bullish candles, and there was another ND signal, so I was confident about it. Marked the Fibo levels of the previous swing, my target was at 50, when it passed, then started to come back, I closed the trade. This was the bigger chunk of my profit. :smiley:

The smaller one was on EURJPY, for me it looked like it is in distribution, so I was looking for short.


Same highest volume bearish candle, spotted the ND bearish candle tested the blue zone on high level, so I entered on the close, my target was the Fiboā€™s 50 level, there was another ND in the marked zone, when it reached the 50 level I closed the half of the trade.

The other half started to turn against me, Iā€™m still in it, it tries to break lower with higher volume bearish candles, for the night most likely Iā€™m gonna put a tighter stop and a tight TP.

Also what I found very helpful for me, to check the 1M and 15M, how the volumes and candles are, if they are matching with what Iā€™m seeing on the 5M, it makes me more confident about the trade. As well as the volumes, now if it starts to turn around, but I see it is on lower volume, I donā€™t panic. So this is a stressfree method aswell.

Again, Iā€™m really grateful for Pete and the other for explaining this method, this is the BOSS. :smiley: