Here’s EU from today.
Price shot off pre-London. The low volume resistance we saw yesterday proved futile. Price retraced to 50 fib and took off like a mofo. I was looking to get back in on a low volume test of the new 50 fib area, but no such luck. Volume picked up, closing on lows and fell right back down to the start of the day level. Profit taking on friday perhaps.
No sign of weakness at the top, plenty of room to the upside for next week. Looks bullish.
Hello VSArs,
Thank you Pete for all the knowledge you have shared and the assistance you continue to provide.
Thank you to all those who contribute to this thread. You have helped my understanding of this method immensely. I’ve lurked around on and off for years and finally have a little more time to dedicate to fully understanding.
I appreciate the willingness to share.
Cheers
Question:
Here’s a pic from the original thread.
First green box shows big buying, but then price keeps going down. This is an example of why we can’t just hit buy when we see climactic volume at a low. My question is: The smart money who bought at the first green box, are they still holding onto their positions through drawdown and buying in stages?
The point being, if we see strength showing up like this and then price moving down considerably past that point. Can we still conclude this to be strength because there has been institutional buying? Or does price moving down way past this point invalidate the perceived strength?
Sorry for poor English.
I see differently the story line than FBF.
Pete says often: the background. We can infer for the future from the past and the present. I think these are the phases. If you know what is the phase of SM, you can search set-up more easy.
Determining the present phase , however, is not always easy. For example I not sure that my decision on the H1-M5 is good decision.
Signs:
Ocher background =accumulation.
Pink background =distribution.
SC= selling climax.
BC= buying climax.
I don’t think we disagree Cica. When I say I think EURUSD is bullish, I mean I think it will move up to the top of it’s trading range in the beginning of the week, I haven’t really thought past that point yet. 
Who’s gonna be ballsy and take the E/U short down to the support trendline??? Anybody??? :5:
I have kind of a stupid question. Right now on EUR/USD Daily it is a clear downtrend. However on the hourly its a clear uptrend. Since we would be looking for an entry on M5 i would say that Daily not really important am i right?
The daily is trending downwards but right now it’s in a period of accumulation/distribution.
During this period it will range up and down. Since these ranges are very large on the daily TF and will take as long as a week to reach the top or the bottom, the direction of the longterm daily trend is of little consequence right now.
However if we were right in the middle of the markdown phase, day after day lower than the other, then yes the daily trend would be of great importance. You would not be looking to go long unless you were a very skilled trader, or unless you’d seen dramatic stopping volume. i.e. massive volume showing up at the new low prices, indicating that the smart money is exiting it’s massive positions, or big levels of buying are entering the market. In a steady downtrend, unless you see climactic volume, the trend is your friend.
EUR-USD Blog for Monday the 27th!
Which entry point is the best / safest / highest probability etc? What do you guys think the volume in the background is telling us about the probable movement for the week?
Not stupid at all! But let’s look at trend definition as the daily isn’t a clear downtrend (the 14 and 50 ema are guides). Eu’s in a range at the moment, bracketted by the low at 1.0524 and the FOMC High.
easypips1
“I have kind of a stupid question. Right now on EUR/USD Daily it is a clear downtrend. However on the hourly its a clear uptrend. Since we would be looking for an entry on M5 i would say that Daily not really important am i right?”
In high TF is a Markdown phase after a distribution phase.
E/U long today 24 minutes after the GBP news. Not a A+ setup but worth a small risk to get long in this very bullish environment. Almost took the GBP long after the news trap but I passed. Not a great r:r where the NS showed up. Been on a nice run for a while. 
Had buy limits on the GU at 1.51805 not filled!! 
Well done on the EU
imo those price bars with closes well off their lows represent short covering by the smart money (banks, etc.) who went short at the highs shown on the chart. How do I know it’s smart money? Only smart money can generate the volume shown. They bought (covered) just as others went short. If you look left of the first red arrow, you’ll see similar price bars (high volume and close well off the lows) indicating buying and this is a logical place to take profits. How do I know it’s or short covering? Because of the closes well off the lows. At the last red arrow, you see short covering that continued in subsequent price bars after the wide spread bar with the close well off its low. The next question to ask, “Is the smart money buying in addition to short covering?” You won’t know that until you see price retrace back toward the lows and you see good closes with an increase in volume.
That supply just before the news almost psyched me out, but that spring said it all, REACCUMULATION! Did you have 1.097 for your target Pete?
Morning Guys,
Hoping everyone caught some USD short pips yesterday
I’ve found this website to be one of the better ones at displaying the USDx US Dollar Index Realtime Chart | USD Index Real Time Chart if anyone’s interested. Kind of sums up the “market” in one hit.
I missed that EU due to being on the road 
I was on the webinar the whole time, when I got home it never came back for entry , bummer lol
Target was the previous days/trend high then trail partial position for the trend continuation.
