This is quite a discussion
With such insight your probably a multi millionaire by now
Support and Resistance exist in forex, however everyone S/R level is eventually broken, otherwise the market would be in a permanent ranging state.
The forex market is a mean reversion market by nature, and that factor contributes to support and resistance being broken more frequently than other markets. Being mean reverting shows at the very least the market nature is not random.
It is provable that the market is not random from the way market structure is respected to how Tokyo session tends to consolidate on a daily basis.
The banks that move price everyday aren’t randomly participating, they are consistently participating. The market is nothing more than a collection of participants that financially actualize greed (reward) and fear (risk).
The situation is really crucial. You should be careful about taking an entry when you find the support and resistance against you.
As part of technical analysis, you have to consider the market trend and strong and weak positikons of support and resistance.
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EURUSD
Fundamental Outlook: Economists surveyed by Reuters have recently revised their predictions for the peak of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates, indicating that they will be much higher than what was anticipated a month ago. The economists also noted that persistently high inflation rates will likely prompt policymakers to take more aggressive measures. At the previous Governing Council meeting, a 50 basis-point lift was signaled for next week, and ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed this on Sunday, stating that the increase is “very, very likely”.
Technical Analysis : The pair has recently experienced an upward trend, as indicated by its position above the 200-day moving average. The current price has risen to meet the 8-day exponential moving average level, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish momentum. However, traders should be aware of potential resistance at the 1.0600 level. If the pair manages to break above this level, the next key resistance level is at 1.0640, which has been a significant downtrend resistance in the past. On the downside, 1.0570 is an important support level that could potentially limit any further downward movement.
Support: 1.0570 - 1.0540 – 1.0485
Resistance: 1.0600 – 1.0640 – 1.0660
I read what you wrote and I highly appreciate your writing. To take a full market view, it’s important to consider both technical and fundamental position of the market.
EURUSD
Fundamental Outlook: On Friday, it is expected that the European Central Bank will provide reassurances to European Union leaders regarding the safety of banks in the euro zone, following market instability caused by Swiss and U.S. banks. However, officials have indicated that the ECB may also call on EU leaders to continue working towards the implementation of a deposit insurance scheme in order to strengthen the banking system.
Technical Analysis: The European region is anticipating the release of PMI data which will determine the market trend. A strong PMI figure may lead to the testing of the 1.1030/35 region, previously observed in February. The resistance level stands at 1.0930, and if crossed, the significant level to watch out for is 1.1030/35. However, if the PMI data is weak, the support zone is likely to be around 1.0770/75. In the event of a breakdown, the next level to monitor is 1.0675. Therefore, traders must closely monitor these critical levels to identify potential trading opportunities and manage their risks accordingly.
Support: 1.0770 – 1.0675 – 1.0615
Resistance: 1.0850 – 1.0930 – 1.1030
EURUSD
Fundamental Outlook: Gediminas Simkus, a member of the Governing Council, made a statement regarding the banks operating within the euro system. According to him, these banks operate under different rules and regulations, which makes them more resilient to financial shocks. They have substantial capital buffers, high liquidity, and are generating profits due to the increasing interest rates. Recently, the ECB raised the interest rates by 50 basis points, which shows their confidence in the banks’ ability to withstand any financial challenges that may arise in the future. However, the officials are still fighting against inflation and are keeping a close eye on the upcoming inflation data. The data is expected to show a decrease in annual CPI gains in February, but there might be an increase in underlying inflation. This emphasizes the importance of the ECB remaining vigilant to ensure the stability of the financial system.
Technical Analysis: The currency pair maintains its bullish momentum and has found support from the 8-day exponential moving average, as indicated by the red line on the chart. The pair attempted to breach the 1.0930 level but retreated to 1.0714, marking a minor pullback in the trend. Presently, the pair is trading above the crucial 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, implying further bullish momentum. If the pair breaks above the resistance level at 1.0825, this may trigger more buying pressure and extend the uptrend. On the other hand, traders might watch for the 8-day exponential moving average at 1.0775, which could serve as a possible support level in case of a downside correction.
Support: 1.0775 – 1.0725 – 1.0675
Resistance: 1.0825 – 1.0855 – 1.0910
EURUSD
On Easter Monday, the EUR/USD pair decreased following Friday’s NFP report, with the US dollar strengthening across the board. The pair hit a week-long low of 1.0830 before recovering to 1.0850 amid an improvement in market sentiment. Market participants have turned their attention to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index figures.
After the optimistic March jobs report, the Greenback opened the week stronger, leading to an increase in the expectations of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, US yields rose, with the 2-year yield surpassing 4% and the 10-year yield above 3.40%.
EUR/USD is currently experiencing a downward correction, although the overall trend remains bullish. In the short term, the pair is forming a downward channel, but the price is still above important moving averages in the daily chart. A potential sign that the correction is over would be a recovery above 1.0910.
On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period moving average coincides with the lower boundary of the long-term bullish channel, providing support. Meanwhile, the rebound needs to surpass the 1.0910 level on the 1-hour chart to confirm the end of the recent bearish trend and the continuation of the longer-term bullish trend.
Support: 1.0880– 1.0860 – 1.0800 Resistance: 1.0940 – 1.0970 – 1.1020
EURUSD
It’s a quiet start to a busy week for the EUR/USD. With European markets closed for Labor Day, there are no euro area economic indicators for investors to consider today. As a result, the EUR/USD will respond to China’s private sector PMI numbers from Sunday and updates from First Republic Bank (FRC) in the US.
On Sunday, China’s private sector PMI numbers were disappointing. The NBS Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.9 to 49.2, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined from 58.2 to 56.4. This significant contraction in the manufacturing sector indicates that the post-COVID recovery is losing momentum.
However, progress towards saving First Republic Bank has cushioned the downside this morning. With no economic indicators to consider and the ECB set to deliver its monetary policy decision on Thursday, commentary from ECB members will be influential. However, no ECB members are scheduled to speak today, leaving media chatter to influence the market.
EURUSD accumulation of price continue respecting the 100MA on the 4H. A possible ascending triangle pattern forming right now indicating the market uncertainty about the next move. The central banks meeting this week from FED and ECB will define the next move toward a bullish breakout taking piece toward the NEXT 1.1170 resistance level or a reversal toward the 1.0900 support area.
Support: 1.0920 – 1.0885 – 1.0840
Resistance: 1.0965 – 1.1000 – 1.1045
EURUSD
The EURUSD currency pair has rebounded after experiencing a sell-off yesterday, bringing it closer to the critical support level of 1.0943. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, we observe that the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the previous historical support level of 1.0943 are significant levels that could potentially act as a selling zone, potentially marking the end of the bullish trend that began in March.
The price action of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates a noticeable uncertainty regarding the future direction of the Dollar. However, the release of today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may provide insights to break out of this price range and provide further clarity.
Key resistance levels to monitor for potential upward movements in the EURUSD pair are located at 1.1000, 1.1050, and 1.1090. Conversely, important support levels to keep an eye on for potential downward movements are situated at 1.0970, 1.0947, and 1.0937
Support 1.0970, 1.0947, and 1.0937
Resistance 1.1000, 1.1050, and 1.1090
