Sure $700 or

:slight_smile: this is interesting i got this from the book i borrow…

If you have a choice to get a $$ which one you choose:

  1. "75% chance to win $1000 with a 25% chance of getting nothing($0)"
  2. “100% chance to get $700”

which one you pic the red pill or the blue pill :cool:

After you take this poll make sure you take the seccond one so you’ll get the big picture what this poll is all about, here:
The Seccond Poll, click me

for me its a no brainer i’d take the $700

lol you got this from
The Complete Trading For A Living
by alexander elder
awesome book w00t

I agree with Johnny! You’d have to be nuts not to take the $700.

C’mon guys i need more people to do this pool so i can make the 2nd one :slight_smile: then i’ll explain about this pool after two pools completes.

C’moooon it’s not to hard…

There is a second book, it is the
Study Guide for Come Into My Trading Room.
Just in case :slight_smile:

In terms of expected value, I guess going for the $1000 might make more sense, but the difference is so small that I got to go with the guaranteed $700.

I will go for the first choice - 75% chance to win $1000. :smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

You’d be nuts not to take the 1000.

Probability dictates that.

If out of 4 rolls, 3 hits me 1000 and the 4th nothing. I made 3000.

If I take the easy 700 every 4 times. I only made 2800.

So my 75 percent odds are in my favor to profitable over the guy that wants to take the sure bet every time.

You “only” made $2800?? So what? It was a free, guaranteed $2800 that took no work or effort to get!

Could you have made more, of course! But you could have made absolutely nothing too. There are other possible outcomes besides $3000 or $2800, and most of them are less than $2800…

Remember, A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!

As I understand the OP you only get ONE go, so $700 it is.

If the original numbers were $2000 and $700 my thinking might be different!


It was a 75% chance. By sheer probabilities you have to assume you have an infinite number of rolls. So yeah, at times you might get 4 out of 4 rolls that amount to nothing. Likewise you could have 4 out of 4 rolls that net you $4000. But if you have a 75% chance in the long run, you will beat out the guy that gets $700 each roll hands down.

No where in the example did you say you only have one roll. It said you have 75% chance. Therefore once should expect to always be set with that same probability with each roll of the die.

But I appreciate your mindset. I need someone to lose pips in this game for me to gain them.

He never stated you have one go. You assumed it was only one go, therefore you went for the easy money. I would imagine 80% of people polled would choose the easy 700 because they couldn’t think outside the scope of a single roll.

Keep in mind 80% of traders are either break even or losing traders.

To be a successful trader, you have to position yourself to achieve the maximum expected value.

I wouldn’t lose pips in this scenario, I would just win less pips than you (assuming you got lucky). You can’t “lose” a situation like this, you always come out a winner!

If we both have a $1000 forex account, and after x number of years you turn it into 1 million dollars, yet I only reach $900,000 then how did I lose pips?? I may have won less, but you didn’t get rich by taking my money! :smiley:

Back to the scenerio… If you’re talking about long-term probability that’s a different story. I would take the 75% chance then. It will always come out to be the winner in the long-term.

But if you only get 1, or even 4, rolls then I’d still take the $700.

Easy question…:confused:…so will you mail me a cheque or a electronic transfer?:smiley:

From the way that the question was worded, I am sure that you only get one roll.

That is what I am assuming in my choice. :smiley:

LOL Dude :stuck_out_tongue:

Yo guys told ya this gonna be interesting :smiley:

I’m making the seccond poll so this one complete and you’ll have a big picture what this all about :slight_smile:

The seccond poll is here, click me