this is interesting i got this from the book i borrow…

If you have a choice to get a $$ which one you choose:

"75% chance to win $1000 with a 25% chance of getting nothing($0)"
Or…

“100% chance to get $700”

which one you pic the red pill or the blue pill

After you take this poll make sure you take the seccond one so you’ll get the big picture what this poll is all about, here: The Seccond Poll, click me

In terms of expected value, I guess going for the $1000 might make more sense, but the difference is so small that I got to go with the guaranteed $700.

You “only” made $2800?? So what? It was a free, guaranteed $2800 that took no work or effort to get!

Could you have made more, of course! But you could have made absolutely nothing too. There are other possible outcomes besides $3000 or $2800, and most of them are less than $2800…

Remember, A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!

It was a 75% chance. By sheer probabilities you have to assume you have an infinite number of rolls. So yeah, at times you might get 4 out of 4 rolls that amount to nothing. Likewise you could have 4 out of 4 rolls that net you $4000. But if you have a 75% chance in the long run, you will beat out the guy that gets $700 each roll hands down.

No where in the example did you say you only have one roll. It said you have 75% chance. Therefore once should expect to always be set with that same probability with each roll of the die.

But I appreciate your mindset. I need someone to lose pips in this game for me to gain them.

He never stated you have one go. You assumed it was only one go, therefore you went for the easy money. I would imagine 80% of people polled would choose the easy 700 because they couldn’t think outside the scope of a single roll.

Keep in mind 80% of traders are either break even or losing traders.

To be a successful trader, you have to position yourself to achieve the maximum expected value.

I wouldn’t lose pips in this scenario, I would just win less pips than you (assuming you got lucky). You can’t “lose” a situation like this, you always come out a winner!

If we both have a $1000 forex account, and after x number of years you turn it into 1 million dollars, yet I only reach $900,000 then how did I lose pips?? I may have won less, but you didn’t get rich by taking my money!

Back to the scenerio… If you’re talking about long-term probability that’s a different story. I would take the 75% chance then. It will always come out to be the winner in the long-term.

But if you only get 1, or even 4, rolls then I’d still take the $700.