Poor young Sweet Pip’s journal is starting to look like a lounge for forex traders! 
Almost a month later using the strength table based on the daily timeframe and I’m down around 1600 pips (-$175)… so not liking how that worked too well. It seems that the strength/weakness relationship can favour one direction, but while going through a strong pullback it gives the impression that it can resume anytime, so you hang on to losing trades for that reason.
Going back to using the 4 hour.
Today the biases finally resumed…big news moves…and all trades closed in overall profit of +538 pips (+$60) for an overall gain of +9%.
Problem is, if I used the daily setting for the bias analysis to get me in, is the 18% drawdown normal or just the result from that Cypress crisis? The only way to find out is to continue to use the daily setting in the bias analysis.
Decided to use the 4hr timeframe for the bias/strength sensitivity setting
Opened 2 trades in Asian session:
Short GPBNZD (1/7)
Bias is down
Price finally broke through support (orange line)
Volume is low at support…no buying support.
3rd bar from right Bearish engulfing, followed by small bodied candle showing selling pressure.
Short EURNZD (5/7)
Bias is down
Price had broken through support (multiple orange lines), retested and failed with bearish engulfing
Volume higher support the new resistance
Both are at +90ish…stops set at just better than BE
Both trades closed +300pips. Actually accidentally closed EURNZD while setting a trailing stop…meant to set a 100 pip trailing but instead of entering 1000 I entered 100 which is only 10 pips…duh! Then looking at GBPNZD, I decided to close it too due to the all time new low (at least in the last 9 years) …uncharted territory. I probably should have let it run but the gains had met my weekly goal so I took it. It might be a while now for the next trade(s) to present.
Review:
Trading off the daily charts and using micro lots feels like was a very good move. I think if I had used micro lots when I was trading live, I would have done much better emotionally which was the major factor in going back to demo. Now I think it’s time to try again and I have filled out a real money account application with Oanda and awaiting approval.
I still don’t like not using a stop initially so will be focusing on working that in again. I have decided to stay with the 4Hr setting for the currency strength/bias analysis as the daily is not sensitive enough and possibly kept me in large drawdown waiting for the trend to resume. If I had been trading live, I don’t think I would have handled it well emotionally at this stage for the length of time it lasted.
This month I have also gone back and started to re-read the technical templates thread(s). Funnily enough I feel like I can finally understand it now…at the time 5 years ago it was way over my head. What I am surprised at is that I have come around to trading somewhat likewise although I still have a ways to go.
Sweet Pip,
Good to hear you’re going live again.
Yeah the tech templates thread, good stuff! The more experience I get playing this silly trading game the more I appreciate the value of the info presented in those threads. To bad the info didn’t sink through my think skull 3 or 4 years earlier. Oh well better late than never.
good luck!
PS also took me almost 3 years before I fully understood the value of the 3-ducks, I must be slow. :56:
It seems most of Tess’s posts have been removed for some reason. I do have the PDF which contains much of what she wrote but it’s fragmented and without chart examples.
I guess we just weren’t ready then, and easily distracted by “easier” stuff…lol. I wouldn’t say we’re slow, maybe just took the long way around to cross the street 
they have another live thread but you have to search for it. Haven’t seen Tess in there but some of the others.
—sig—
once more around the block
Opened 9 new trades. They have all printed a pinbar at a prior support or resistance zone after a retrace of the current trend, similar to the attached CHFJPY chart. Testing the higher volume as confirmation that the retrace is finished instead of waiting for another day to confirm. Putting in stops behind the pinbars.
CHPJPY (6/0) BUY
EURJPY (5/0) BUY
EURNZD (5/7) SELL forgot to re-check numbers - changed since yesterday - need to be more careful
NZDJPY (7/0) BUY
AUDJPY (3/0) BUY
NZDCAD (7/2) BUY
NZDCHF (7/6) BUY forgot to re-check numbers - changed since yesterday - need to be more careful
NZDUSD (7/4) BUY
USDJPY (4/0) BUY
Most trades are +ve. As suspected the currencies in the EURNZD & NZDCHF trades are too equal in strength and so far the EURNZD has closed out -160 pips (-16), and the NZDCHF is about -80pips in spite of the good looking pinbars.
CHPJPY (Currently +150)
EURNZD (closed -160)
The week has seen the pairs oscillate between +500 & -300 pips between all 8 trades. EURJPY & CHPJPY hit their stops (which I had moved to BE+) but I re-entered them long…the strength table still favoured my original bias. Back up to around +500pips at the end of the week. Still lots of potential on all trades for price to target resistance again to make double tops - and the strength table supports that.
Decided to leave them open over the weekend but it is sooooo tempting to close out now. However, after looking at other potential setups, there just doesn’t seem to be any so it could be awhile before some developed. Might as well just stay with these trades and let them play out, for better or worse.
This week has seen the pairs range a bit at resistance. Started off the week reaching +900 pips combined. Then one by one, most hit their stops on the JPY pairs at just better than BE. The NZDCHF was the last one left because the stop hadn’t been moved yet and eventually it got into +ve territory heading for a double top. This time I set a TP for the double top at +180 and it hit. Also had re-opened a NZDCAD (7/2) long after seeing a bullish engulfing in the pullback area. I was also targeting a double top but was happy with +60 pips 24 hours later to basically BE on it stopping out for about -60 earlier in the week.
Account is now up +15%
Had a small delay in getting my live account setup since it I needed to upload a copy of my drivers licence which expired on my birthday this year and of course I left it to the last minute to get done so had to wait for it to come in the mail.
interesting approach, although the charts a little busy
Opened a long on EURGPB (6/1) yesterday after a 2nd bullish engulfing bounce off major support (green/orange line).
At the time, oscillator was oversold.
Stop is just below support, 1st target is orange resistance line above, and if it makes it there, then 2nd target is lime resistance line above that.
u took a technical trade despite the substantial euro interest rate event risk? It worked though eh.
Yes I did. Not sure if it worked yet though…not looking good right now.
Just my 2 cents Sweetpip, that may or may not fit your style…
For me, this level of confluence would at least cause me to lock BE on the trade. 50 fib and previous support turned resistance. There is simply less probability of moving up past that point, then there was to get to that point.
I totally respect your opinion and you’re probably right. I am curious though as to why there is so much activity volume on that current wide-ranged down bar compared to that previous wide-ranged down bar that has a bit less volume…what’s that rule?..effort vs results?..I’d expect a lot more down movment on that volume…so does that mean there is a lot of buying pressure hidden in there?
[QUOTE=“Sweet Pip;484572”]
I totally respect your opinion and you’re probably right. I am curious though as to why there is so much activity volume on that current wide-ranged down bar compared to that previous wide-ranged down bar that has a bit less volume…what’s that rule?..effort vs results?..I’d expect a lot more down movment on that volume…so does that mean there is a lot of buying pressure hidden in there?[/QUOTE]
Time of day affects volume… Especially when you are looking at 4 hr bars… Can’t even really compare the volume of one 4 hr bar to the next as the 4hr bar covering London open is always going to be higher then the few before it regardless of price action.