Opened 3 new trades.
Long AUDUSD
Strength Chart=2 & 4
Direction of pair - 3 ducks up.
Cycle of oscillators - leaving overbought on several t/fs - a concern
S&R areas - bouncing off lower lime channel line up
Candlesticks - engulfing bull elephant bar with really high tick volume
Other - bottom of weekly channel and at support of established weekly range - horizontal lime lines
Longs earn interest.
What time frames are you trading?
The 3 ducks uses the 60 sma on the H4, H1 and 5 min charts.
I looked at those charts and I don’t see the ducks being up on AUDUSD H4 chart.
Hi there,
I’m on the Daily, but in the top right corner you can see (somewhat) the ducks…from left to right there are 3 black dots, then 2 green ups arrows (H4 & H1), then 2 more black dots, then the another up arrow (M5). The 4HR AUDUSD duck is just straddling the 60SMA and was above at the time I took the trade and pic…and now it’s not. It’s part of a little signal dashboard I made.
Arrgh…Couldn’t quite hold out. Not used to trades being over +100-200 pips at a time. So placed a stop loss at a prior low on the 4hr charts (too close) and they got hit. I did leave pips on the table. If I’ve left many more hundreds, then there should be another opp to get in again. However I will endeavor to hold out a little longer each trade.
My three open trades aren’t doing so well. I need to figure out where an exit would be to cut a loss. This is AUDCAD Weekly chart (@-14):
2nd to last bar is a Bullish Hammer in the lower channel area…assuming my channel is correct for an up bias. Last bar is an Inside Bar (IB). Thinking maybe if price closes below the low of that IB, then I’d exit. However, the Hammer tested the 50% fib once and was rejected…if it breaks the IB low then it may want to retest that…that would be a drawdown of about 140 pips (or -$14) which is still within the 2% risk. The 2% line is the 62% retrace which doesn’t have much evidence as being a strong support or resistance. There are a few more levels it could step down to… all the way back down to the lime weekly supports…that would be just over 400 pips drawdown…or 4%…don’t want to go there. The black lines are from the 4hr chart.
Down to 4Hr:
Seeing some chart patterns…a bear flag prior on that down leg. It then broke above the down trendline (black) and formed a series of higher lows with the highs all hitting evenish at a resistance area. These usually? break above from the persistence. The third bar in is an Outside Bar (OB) and is both a Bullish Hammer and a Bearish Shooting Star…great :(. So maybe exit if there’s a close below the low of the OB low which would be only be 30 pips (or -$3) that might be too tight. Strength table shows 2 & 3 so they are equally weak which probably explains the recent range condition.
Long AUDUSD (@-56) Weekly Chart
Again at the lower edge of the upward channel. A very high tick volume Doji…neither bullish nor bearish…rejected at the 38% fib. If it closes below that, might be inclined to exit there @ -150 (or $15). There’s not much evidence of strong support or resistance at the last pullback low, to hold out for a bounce there.
Down to 4Hr chart:
There was a breach above the down trendline, but it failed to hold, however, it’s still only an arbitrary line and it was rejected off a 62% retrace back to a prior daily support line (orange) with a weak doji. If it closes below the bottom (red) resistance that would be a -120 pips (or $12) place to exit.
You had a system that was doing well for a number of weeks.
You had one bad day, not due to system failure, but personal.
In response, you changed up the whole system.
Perhaps, what you needed to change wasn’t the system?
I do hear what you’re saying, I do. I don’t have a very good track record for staying with any one system for any length of time do I, bailing as soon as it seems the going gets tough.
This time, most of it is the same actually. I’m still the using strength table, bias, S&R, volume, candlesticks, ranges, news timing. The part I changed is the money management & timeframe, and dropped the donchian channel and MA lines…isn’t less indicators good?!
It bugged me that I said the longer timeframes didn’t work for me, but then it occurred to me that I hadn’t really traded the daily. So when MG showed how he was using it but adjusted the lot size to play in it, I had to try. You could almost say it’s a test whether it’s easier to get 20 pips a trade or 200…lol
Not seeing any reasons to open new trades yet after the close of the daily bars. The three existing trades are doing much better :)…a fluctuating combined total of between +30 & 90 pips. I would like to close 1/2 on a couple of them but I can’t go any lower on a single micro lot size. Tomorrow night I have a bridge meeting…then pub time…so won’t be around for the daily close. Might be a good idea to put a stop at at least BE on AUDCHF & AUDCAD…AUDUSD is still in -ve area so will just put a stop for a loss just in case.
Are you still long on this pair? My analysis show that the price is reaching for high lows on a daily chart. However, passing the 1.03746 would definitely break market structure. I haven’t entered on this just yet because I am waiting for confirmation.
Hi elephant,
Yes I am still long…price has basically reached break even for it now…phew! I’m mixed on whether to enter at an S&R area or to wait for confirmation. I suppose for a confirmation I should have waited for another set of HH HL’s. but I entered after a bounce off the lower channel line…again assuming my channel is correct. And AUD is rather weak compared to USD so either I caught the beginning of the new trend up again and AUD will gain strength, or I got in a retrace and should look to exit soon somewhere around here. Will wait a bit to see what the candles say. The other AUD pairs I have open are doing great… +50ish & +100ish.
I actually just shorted. I found waves that correspond to giving me lower lows. I don’t know if the AUD is weak. What is conflicting to me is that the USDX have left a large unfulfilled gap. Check it out on the hourly chart! Market generally never leave any gapping holes unfulfilled. However, that statement would justify your long on the AUD/USD if the USDX would break down and become bearish for the next days.
From my waves, if I am correct, may be seeking -160 to -200 pips from the 4 hour charts. More interestingly, on the weekly chart, a contraction triangle is occurring. Why I brought this up is because market may be seeking for the next wave (potential +350 pips). I forget how long you are in for your trades but I hold my trades up to days to weeks.
Let’s see how this works out! Good luck Sweetpip!
I will be checking in on your marvelous work.
