Swiss Consumer Prices to Shrink for Fifth Month, Boosting Deflation Fears

Switzerland’s [B]Consumer Price Index[/B] is expected to fall -1.1% in the year to July, yielding the lowest reading in at least 33 years and the fifth consecutive month that the annual pace of inflation prints in negative territory. Strictly speaking, deflation implies an appreciation of the Franc, with falling prices boosting the currency’s purchasing power. Perversely, this means that the Swiss unit could actually see near-term buying interest following lower CPI figures. That said, the longer-term effect is difficult to gauge considering the Swiss National Bank has explicitly committed to “take firm action to prevent an appreciation of the Swiss franc” to keep expectations of future prices from becoming entrenched in negative territory, an outcome that would prolong the current downturn as consumers and businesses delay spending and investment as they wait for the best possible bargain. On balance, it is much easier for a central bank to drive the domestic currency lower than to support its value against speculative assault because it can simply print more of it, suggesting any upside is likely to be short-lived.