Getting ready for the publication of statistics and meetings of Central Banks
In the following technical analysis we provide you the Australian dollar versus Swiss franc currency pair. Will the AUDCHF quotations continue growing? Such dynamics is observed with the strengthening of the Australian dollar and the weakening of the Swiss franc.
The Swiss government will not raise the economic growth forecast for the current year, despite the fact that GDP data for the 1st quarter of 2019 were positive. In annual terms, the economy grew by 1.7%, while the forecast for the whole year is only + 1.1%. Probably, the Swiss government fears the situation will worsen by the end of the year. Its current forecast is noticeably less than GDP growth in 2018 (+ 2.6%) and historically average (+ 1.7%). In order to continue monetary stimulation of the economy, the National Bank of Switzerland is not going to raise the rate at its next meeting on June 20. It is now minus (-0.75%) and is the lowest in the world. June 3 in Switzerland, there are data on inflation for May, which may affect the franc. In turn, the main positive for the Australian dollar is the outlined normalization of trade relations between the United States and China, as well as the strong increase in iron ore prices in China. On June 4, a regular meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held. Market participants expect a reduction in the rate from 1.5% to 1.25%. This is the main risk for the Australian dollar. However, some investors believe that such an event has already been taken into account in current quotes.
On the daily timeframe AUDCHF: D1 exited the downtrend upward. Various technical analysis indicators have generated upside signals. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of publication of positive data in Australia and negative data in Switzerland.
The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
The Bolinger bands started expanding, indicating volatility increase.
The RSI indicator is below level 50. It has formed a divergence to the increase.
The MACD indicator indicates an uptrend signal.
The bullish momentum may develop in case if AUDCHF exceed its last fractal high: at 0.7. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last two lower fractals and the Parabolic signal: 0.689. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (0,689) without reaching the order (0,7), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.
Summary of technical analysis
Position Buy
Buy stop Above 0,7
Stop loss Below 0,689