That’s very good, but I always seem to get in trouble when I go TOTALLY FREE, and by this I mean I always need a moving average to instantly tell me the big trend. Trading with the trend like a dog has always been the biggest challenge to me, ironically, because ye, I like to pick tops and bottoms, but this only works on pullbacks, never against the trend. So often I switch charts and if that MA wasn’t there to tell me BAD TRADE I would often pull the trigger prematurely.
I think these are very wise words, Dennis3450. Not only are there many indicators but each parameter in each one of them can be altered in a great number of ways that the combinations become almost infinite. Even a simple thing like a MA can be calculated in many different ways (exp, simple, smoothed, etc), based on high,low, close, median, typical, etc etc etc. and for periods from 1 to many hundreds.
The danger, as you infer, is that you can fit almost any indicator to any particular section of a chart and it will look really promising - then the following week the market moves entirely differently and results in losses, so we refit or change to something else and try again. This does not work so we try putting lots of indicators together that should all confirm the same thing and wait for them to all line up - trouble is they rarely do and one is left wondering which to believe…
Whilst I admit to enjoying playing with various new ideas that crop up here and elsewhere, I have remained with my same basic combination of a few basic indicators that form a whole for many years now and have never had cause to dump any part of it. I only apply it to one currency pair and I now know it backwards and have seen it through so many movements that I can almost intuitively anticipate what comes next. The key for me is that I always watch the price action underlying the indicators and then look what the indicators are, well, “indicating”! - that is all they are supposed to do! If one gives those lines an authority of their own and ignore the real price action then it is not likely to work for very long.
let me clarify, I do not see a moving average as an indicator, for my trading I have the 200 moving average on 4 time frames, Weekly, daily, 4hr and 1hr, this lets me quickly see if the short term trends are in line with long term trades, I only trade in direction of the long term trend ( Weekly, daily) but will not fight a short term ( 4hr or 1hr chart) trend reversal, let the reversal play out and catch it as the long term trend resumes, again for me candle stick reversals at support or resistance makes for good entry points, support or resistance can be the 200 ma on one of my 4 time frames or a previous high or low.
I do like the way you are using Fibs. 1.618 and 2.618 , these are fib levels most traders do not use, and the first rule of trading is to not follow the crowd
Right on the button yet again Dennis. I agree, the bigger problem is the number of indicators and the misunderstanding of them. People forget most indicators can only show us what had already happened, useful if you’re looking for trends or channels, but they certainly cannot predict future movement.
I get dismayed whenever new traders post about different indicators they use giving conflicting predictions, then they post a chart showing 8 or 9 different indicators in every colout of the rainbow.
[QUOTE=Manxx;768206]I think these are very wise words, Dennis3450. Not only are there many indicators but each parameter in each one of them can be altered in a great number of ways that the combinations become almost infinite. Even a simple thing like a MA can be calculated in many different ways (exp, simple, smoothed, etc), based on high,low, close, median, typical, etc etc etc. and for periods from 1 to many hundreds.
The danger, as you infer, is that you can fit almost any indicator to any particular section of a chart and it will look really promising (QUOTE)
+1 on everything you said Manxx,
What kills most traders is not sticking with what they are doing long enough to really get good at it, I am sure most indicators have merit but you have really got to immerse yourself in the indicator to understand all it’s strength and weakness, this is why most loose at this game as they want the easy score. I have been down that road, now I am not looking at any new ways of trading, just becoming more proficient at my current approach.
There is always a danger when we write on forums that the reader misinterprets what the writer was actually saying. I think this is an example of that. I am sure you realise and accept that not all traders trust in Fibbonnacci ratios in the same way that they will disagree about the value of any other indicator. That is the topic of this thread. I doubt that Lexy was attacking you personally or your own application of these ratios, rather her contribution was drawing attention to studies that have been made concerning Fibbs in a general sense.
Lexy is a full-time trader, she is extremely well-read in a very broad range of trading matters and has contributed hugely to the great benefit of Newbies here. She has also dedicated a lot of her own time to assisting in highlighting scammers and salespeople who inevitably regularly haunt this site looking for easy prey.
I understand your feelings if you feel your method was personally attacked, but I would like to personally urge you both to let this issue pass and move on. There is much to talk about with this subject and it is a pity to see it distracted by personal attacks.
In addition, this thread was started by someone else and I feel it is good forum etiquette to respect their topic and avoid this kind of distraction - no matter how much Turbo is enjoying it! 
So can we all be friends and share our thoughts and experiences in a positive spirit of mutual benefit?
argh Manxx dont ruine my sunday evenings fun read!
u take all my fun away 
Great thread… 
Help! 
I am getting quite confused here and a little embarrassed that maybe I have totally misunderstood what we are talking about here. The thread is about “indicators”, but now I am really not sure what we mean when talk about “indicators” The OP of the thread states:
I believe the following indicators have nonexistent predictive power; RSI, Stochastic, MACD, Bulls Bear & ATR for long term profitable trading.
but I have always assumed that the term “indicators” covers pretty much [I]any [/I]mathematically deduced treatment of price over a specific period of time and presented in some kind of visual form that produces some kind of meaningful interpretation of what price is doing during that period - as was said earlier by BobBillBrowne:
My personal view, don’t have much time for technical indicators. They are just mathematical representations of price and time.
In other words, I have always assumed that the term “indicators” also includes [I]all [/I]kinds of Moving Averages. But it seems I have been posting under a serious misapprehension and I am now quite lost as to what we are actually discussing here. What exactly is included/excluded when we refer to “indicators” according to these various quotes:
For my own trading I have been indicator free for 3 years and have no reason to ever go back,
I do not see a moving average as an indicator, for my trading I have the 200 moving average on 4 time frames, Weekly, daily, 4hr and 1hr, this lets me quickly see if the short term trends are in line with long term trades
I always seem to get in trouble when I go TOTALLY FREE, and by this I mean I always need a moving average to instantly tell me the big trend.
According to this, I would have to conclude that I [I]also [/I]trade Naked Price Action because I really only use a combination of various MA’s. But, in fact, I usually write about the [I]value [/I]of indicators if used sensibly…!!
Another problem I have is the common inference that “indicators” are lagging and therefore historic and therefore useless - as in the following quote:
People forget most indicators can only show us what had already happened, useful if you’re looking for trends or channels, but they certainly cannot predict future movement.
But surely there is nothing else [I]but [/I]what has already happened whatever method one is using? A single candle shows a period stretching back from the closing price to the opening price and the low and high achieved during that historic period. A one month candle covers a whole months history. And that same candle can be variously represented in weeks, days, hours, mins etc - and it is still all historic. Whatever method we use whether it is candles, lines, patterns, levels or whatever, it is always a form of comparing current with the past and extrapolating the future based on the outcome from previous similar set-ups - there is nothing else. Surely the only question is which method of presenting the current compared with the past works for us as an individual. For example, Dennis even uses a 200MA on a weekly chart, that is a huge period - and that is fine. Traderje4 uses fibs and an MA on his otherwise naked charts - and that is also fine. I use a cluster of short-term MA’s on 1H and 15m charts, that is also fine.
I really don’t see any argument here about what is and isn’t useless if it achieves the goal of producing a profit. I just see a confusion over what constitutes an “indicator” and how we choose to represent the present with the past.
The only real point that is clearly shared and agreed by both “camps” is that it is not so much a question of [I]what [/I]you use but [I]how [/I]you use it.
Maybe?
Good morning, Manxx!
I would just go by the Investopedia definition:
“Technical indicators are mathematical calculations based on a trading instrument’s past and current price and/or volume activity. Technical analysts use this information to evaluate historical performance and to predict future prices. Indicators do not specifically provide any buy and sell signals; a trader must interpret the signals to determine trade entry and exit points that conform to his or her own unique trading style.”
PS: what an article like this
Naked Trading 101 - Part 1: Price action basics | IG SG | 2014-10-30T01:03
shows is that trading without indicators is not synonymous with renouncing technical analysis: identifying
support/demand, resistance/supply, pivot points, and other significant levels still relies on what indicators
are based on, that is, past price…
Truly, [I]as Manxx said it better before me[/I], [B]trading “is always a form of comparing current with the past and extrapolating the future based on the outcome from previous similar set-ups - there is nothing else[/B]”.
Peace.
Applause
Yeah, but there is a distinctly observable female majority in that picture, why wouldn’t they applaud! 
Sadly it is often women who are least likely to support or champion each other, which is
something that adds to the already significant male pressure put on women:
Thanks for the article!
Actually this highlights exactly the problem I have with lagging/leading. The author first describes that indicators are problematic because they are historic and therefore lagging…and then goes on to demonstrate “leading” Price Action analysis directly as a comparison of current with historic prices. Surely they are not different in lagging or leading, they only differ in the form of presentation of the same data:
Most traders are exposed to indicators like moving averages, MACD, Stochastic when they begin their trading journey. However, one thing to note is that indicators are mostly lagging by nature because they are dependent on price data on a chart.
While lagging indicators can be useful to confirm trends or reversals, it’s more beneficial for traders, especially when building a high probability trading plan, to understand leading indicators and how to combine them with lagging indicators. This is where studying price action on charts comes in.
Once swings have been identified, the next step is to label them. There are four labels that you need to know:
- Higher Low (HL)
- Higher High (HH)
- Lower High (LH)
- Lower Low (LL)
This would enable you to use the right tools and strategy to trade the market, as well as manage expectations in regards to stop loss placement and profit taking. Essentially the market only has three different phases:- Uptrend – a series of higher highs and higher lows
- Downtrend – a series of Lower low and lower highs
- Consolidation – no specific sequence of swings. Usually forming chart patterns like a wedge, channel, head and shoulders etc
Maybe one little suggestion/hint for people who do use indicators:
As I have said, I do use indicators but I always look at them in the context of the actual price action taking place. On some platforms there is an option to “show indicators” and by toggling this off and on it is possible to look first at the naked chart and then instantly overlay your complete technical structure like a transparent skin. Doing this several times does give a very clear picture of what the price looks like and what you technical model is making of it.
Just a small technique but might be quite useful…
…and to celebrate my 300th post here (and promotion to “Senior Member” :D), I offer a slightly different presentation of “Naked Price Action” from way back in 1922:
Nice one!!
Finn-ancially exquisite!
Excellent!
Good idea!
I only use 1 indicator, sma, but I have it set to show on all time frames. When I started trading, I found it useful in the higher times for spotting trends (although less so now ive been trading a while), but its still useful in the shorter time frames (which I use to pinpoint entry) as the fluctuations in shorter time frames can contradict the main trend so the sma acts as a reminder here.